bobrob2004

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #12 – Reese Olson Reese Olson was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round of the 2018 draft and was traded to the Detroit Tigers for Daniel Norris in 2021. Dealing with various injuries, the Tigers promoted the 23-year-old to the Major Leagues last year (despite a 6.87 ERA in AAA) and he ended up pitching over 100 innings at the Major League level with a 3.99 ERA and 103 strikeouts. The Tigers have six starting pitchers (Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Matting Manning, Casey Mize, and Reese Olson) but only five spots in the rotation. Olson could be the odd one out, starting the year in the bullpen, piggybacking off of Manning, Flaherty, or Mize or he could start in AAA. Whatever the case, I think Olson will have a significant number of innings (either due to injuries or poor performances, or trades) to warrant a prediction. But how good will he be in only his second year? Some stats from the last few years: 2022 (AA) – 119 2/3 IP | 12.64 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 3.31 FIP 2023 (AAA) – 36 2/3 IP | 11.54 K/9 | 5.40 BB/9 | 4.75 FIP 2023 (MLB) – 103 2/3 IP | 8.94 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 4.01 FIP Reese Olson’s biggest asset is the ability to get strikeouts. In his first game with the Tigers, he recorded six strikeouts in five innings and had as many as 10 strikeouts in his start on August 28th in just 4 1/3 innings. The high walk rate in AAA stands out, but that could be attributed to a small sample as it went back down in more innings in the Major Leagues. Some batted ball data: 2022 (AA) – 13.9% HR/FB% | 42.2% GB% | .333 BABIP 2023 (AAA) – 14.3% HR/FB% | 51.0% GB% | .374 BABIP 2023 (MLB) – 13.5% HR/FB% | 42.8% GB% | .255 BABIP Home runs seem to be an issue but that can be expected with a young pitcher, and it can certainly get better as he matures. The .255 BABIP worries me a little as it could be an indicator of being lucky, but there are pitchers who can sustain a lower BABIP, so it’ll be interesting to see if Olson is one of them. Reese Olson throws a slider, 4-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball: Slider – 30.6% Usage | .217 BAA | .433 SLG Against 4-Seam Fastball – 28.6% Usage | .179 BAA | .396 SLG Against Sinker – 19.8% Usage | .270 BAA | .348 SLG Against Changeup – 15.1% Usage | .208 BAA | .283 SLG Against Curveball – 5.8% Usage | .167 BAA | .22 SLG Against The most surprising thing about this is that he used his slider more than his fastball. 41 of his strikeouts came off the slider, as opposed to 27 against the fastball, so it’s obvious that he sets up with the fastball and then tries to put them away with the slider. His average fastball velocity is 94.8 MPH, and while hitters struggled with it, his XBA was .267 and his xSLG was .587, showing that he may have to make some adjustments. It's always hard to predict what players will do in their first few seasons as they are making adjustments and tweaking their mechanics and pitch usage. It’s possible that Olson could go through a “sophomore slump” as his scouting report gets around the league. However, he finished with a 4-2 record in his last 6 starts with a 1.51 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. Olson just seems like a smart pitcher who is able to make the most out of his talent. It’ll be interesting to see what type of changes he’ll make in 2024. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 134 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.21 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 128 K | 50 BB ZiPS DC – 118 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.35 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 113 K | 49 BB THE BAT – 127 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 115 K | 44 BB ATC – 132 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.30 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 126 K | 49 BB FGDC – 126 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.28 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 120 K | 50 BB RotoChamp – 128 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 121 K | 48 BB CBS Sports – 142 IP | 7-11 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 136 K | 49 BB ESPN – 144 IP | 6 W | 4.69 ERA | 1.49 WHIP | 133 K | 73 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 103 2/3 IP | 5-7 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.119 WHIP | 103 K | 33 BB 2024 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 130 K | 51 BB

I don't think Flaherty will receive Cy Young votes, but I do think he's going to surprise some people.

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #11 – Jacob Ray Rogers The last remaining player from the Justin Verlander deal, Jake Rogers had his breakout year in 2023, hitting .221 with 21 home runs and a 96 OPS+ in 365 plate appearances. Rogers had shown promise in 2021 when he had a 119 OPS+ in 127 plate appearances before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the whole 2022 season. Still under 30 years of age, can Rogers break out even more in 2024? Jake Rogers’ biggest asset is his power. He led the Tigers team in ISO (.224) and home run to fly ball ratio (23.3 percent). How much of his power will he be able to maintain for 2024? Well, his xSLG was .449 compared to his real SLG of .444 and his xwOBA was .321 compared to his real wOBA of .312, indicating that there wasn’t any luck involved at all. According to Baseball Savant, his sweet spot percentage was at 40.3 percent, which was in the 95th percentile. 2019 – 128 PA | 10.2% BB% | 39.8% K% | 3.1% HR% 2021 – 127 PA | 8.7% BB% | 36.2% K% | 4.7% HR% 2023 – 365 PA | 7.7% BB% | 32.3% K% | 5.8% HR% Jake Rogers’ walk rate has fallen to below league average (8.6 percent in 2023). While his strikeout rate has improved, 32.3 percent was the 11th highest in baseball among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2023. Yikes! However, given the small sample sizes in both 2019 and 2021, these years’ stats may be irrelevant. Rogers had a BABIP of .175 in 2019 that increased to .344 in 2021. His .268 BABIP last year seems to be where he should be, which does lead to a low batting average (and still lots of strikeouts). Being a right-handed hitter, Jake Rogers does hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers: Vs. RHP – 257 PA | .215/.281/.395 | 4.7 HR% Vs. LHP – 108 PA | .235/.296/.561 | 8.3 HR% Looking at Rogers’ other splits, he did hit .286/.315/.543 in his last 73 plate appearances with 6 home runs. Although, he also hit .172/.217/.391 in the month of August and .286/.386/.592 in the month of June, so chances are he is just a very streaky hitter. Rogers is entering his age-29 season, so I think it’s reasonable to see him somewhat duplicate his 2023 numbers again for 2024. That does mean I think he can hit close to 20 home runs again with a low batting average, but it also means that he won’t be more than a league average hitter in OPS+. I don’t think I can end this without showing how good of a defensive catcher Jake Rogers is. He had 8 blocks above average according to Baseball Savant (only five catchers were better at preventing wild pitches and passed balls). His pitch framing was also above average, in the 80th percentile. So even if Rogers cannot duplicate his offensive production, his defense can make up for it. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 301 AB | .214/.280/.405 | 15 HR | 41 RBI | 3 SB | 26 BB | 106 K ZiPS DC – 337 AB | .205/.277/.389 | 15 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 122 K THE BAT X – 321 AB | .216/.291/.393 | 13 HR | 43 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 114 K ATC – 324 AB | .217/.286/.417 | 16 HR | 45 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 116 K FGDC – 336 AB | .209/.279/.397 | 16 HR | 48 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 120 K RotoChamp – 327 AB | .214/.290/.404 | 15 HR | 46 RBI | 2 SB | 30 BB | 117 K CBS Sports – 372 AB | .247/.317/.462 | 22 HR | 56 RBI | 1 SB | 34 BB | 119 K ESPN – 354 AB | .220/.284/.438 | 21 HR | 50 RBI | 2 SB | 29 BB | 124 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 331 AB | .221/.286/.444 | 21 HR | 49 RBI | 1 SB | 28 BB | 118 K 2024 Prediction – 338 AB | .213/.282/.417 | 19 HR | 50 RBI | 1 SB | 30 BB | 124 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #10 – Matthew George Manning Matt Manning is a former #1 pick from the Tigers in 2016 that was a top prospect as recently as 2021 (#30 according to Baseball America), when he made his Major League debut and pitched a little over 85 innings for the Tigers with a 5.80 ERA. He would suffer injuries over the next two years, pitching 63 innings in 2022 with a 3.43 ERA and 78 innings in 2023 with a 3.58 ERA. He has shown flashes of being effective, but he has yet to put together a full healthy season at the Major League level. Manning throws a 4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and a changeup, with his fastball being his most effective pitch. He throws it about 50 percent of the time, with an opponent’s batting average of .214 and a 23.2 percent strikeout rate last year. He throws his fastball with an average velocity of 93.4 MPH, but he has one of the best extensions in baseball, which makes it look like he is throwing it faster. Manning finished the 2023 season with a 4-1 record in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 0.36, but only 11 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. However, his overall stats show that Manning may have been a bit lucky with his ERA last year: 2021 – 14.8% K% | 8.6% BB% | 10.2% HR/FB% | 44.5% GB% | 5.44 xERA | 4.62 FIP | 5.13 xFIP 2022 – 18.3% K% | 7.2% BB% | 7.7% HR/FB% | 41.0% GB% | 3.97 xERA | 3.78 FIP | 4.37 xFIP 2023 – 15.8% K% | 6.6% BB% | 9.9% HR/FB% | 38.7% GB% | 5.48 xERA | 4.81 FIP | 5.33 xFIP While his walk rate is trending in the right direction, Manning’s strikeout rate and ground ball rate declined in 2023. In fact, it’s going to be hard for any pitcher to keep a low ERA with as low of a strikeout rate as Manning showed last year. Here are the lowest qualified strikeout pitchers last year and their ERAs: Patrick Corbin – 15.7% K% | 5.20 ERA | 5.28 FIP Miles Mikolas – 15.9% K% | 4.78 ERA | 4.27 FIP Jordan Lyles – 16.0% K% | 6.28 ERA | 5.62 FIP Bryce Elder – 17.5% K% | 3.81 ERA | 4.42 FIP Taijuan Walker – 18.8% K% | 4.38 ERA | 4.53 FIP Only Bryce Elder had an ERA below 4.00, so it is possible, especially if Manning can get his strikeout rate back to over 18 percent again. In addition, Manning also had a .214 BABIP, which is not going to be sustainable over a big enough sample size. The league average BABIP was .295 in 2023 and Corbin Burnes had the lowest BABIP among qualified pitchers last year at .244 (Jordan Lyles had the second lowest at .255). Of course, it’s not unheard of for a pitcher to outperform their ERA estimators. If he can stay healthy this year, he is certainly at an age (he’s entering his age-26 season) where everything can come together, and he can have a breakout season, especially with Chris Fetter as his pitching coach. But even if he does stay healthy all year, there’s also the fatigue factor late in the season as he racks up the innings. What I personally would like to see from Manning, other than staying healthy, is an increase in strikeouts and an increase in ground ball rate. That would show me that he is heading in the right direction. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 124 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.80 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 94 K | 43 BB ZiPS DC – 109 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.55 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 87 K | 38 BB THE BAT – 109 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.82 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 78 K | 37 BB ATC – 109 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.55 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 80 K | 35 BB FGDC – 116 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.68 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 90 K | 40 BB RotoChamp – 111 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.70 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 83 K | 38 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 105 IP | 5 W | 4.20 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 70 K | 31 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 136 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.63 ERA | 1.254 WHIP | 122 K | 46 BB 2023 Actual – 78 IP | 5-4 W/L | 3.58 ERA | 1.038 WHIP | 50 K | 21 BB 2024 Prediction – 116 1/3 IP | 6-9 W/L | 4.56 ERA | 1.272 WHIP | 81 K | 33 BB

We have no idea if Keith can get on base enough at the Major League level to justify hitting second.

It amazes me how little pitchers actually pitch anymore. Last year, there were only 5 pitchers who threw 200+ innings. 10 years ago in 2013, there were 36 pitchers who threw 200+ innings.

Who do you think will be the leadoff hitter?

Canha should definitely be batting 2nd after Meadows.

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #9 – Mark David Canha How do you replace a future Hall of Fame player who spent the last 16 years on your favorite team who had several milestones including 500 home runs and 3000 hits? You can’t. But the Tigers did sign veteran player Mark Canha, who can add flexibility to the roster by playing the outfield, first base, and fill in at DH. Mark Canha had his big season in 2019 at the age of 30 when he hit .273/.396/.517 with 26 home runs and a 146 OPS+. And while he hasn’t been able to duplicate that season since, he’s been fairly consistent over the next four seasons with OPS+ of 124; 111; 122; and 108. Now that he’s entering his age-35 season, he’s starting to exit his prime, so a decline in production is likely (even if only slightly). One stat that immediately jumps out from Canha is his hit by pitches. He led the league in both 2021 and 2022 with 27 and 28. Even last season, he had a lot of HBP with 17. There have been studies if getting hit by pitches is a repeatable skill (see this one by Beyond the Boxscore), and Canha seems to have that skill. I would guess another year of high hit by pitches again this year, which will increase his on-base percentage. With a walk rate hovering around 10 percent, Canha should once again have an above-average on-base percentage (.360 over the last 3 years compared to the league average of .320 in 2023). Another stat that separates Canha from the other Tiger hitters is his avoidance of strikeouts. His 15.6 percent strikeout rate was 20th lowest in all of baseball last year among qualified hitters. His 22.1 percent whiff rate was one of the best in baseball and his chase rate of only 25.1 percent was also pretty good. As far as power goes, there’s a noticeable decline in home runs (which is to be expected because of age), but his ISO has been consistent over the last two years while his extra base hit percentage increased in 2023: 2021 – 12.1% HR/FB% | .156 ISO | 6.9% XBH% 2022 – 10.2% HR/FB% | .136 ISO | 6.8% XBH% 2023 – 7.6% HR/FB% | .138 ISO | 7.3% XBH% Surprisingly, Canha stole 11 bases last year and was caught only once, the second time he has stolen over 10. This shows that while he may not be speedy, he is a smart baserunner that knows when he can steal. It’ll be interesting to see if A.J. Hinch allows him to utilize this skill and if he can steal over 10 bases again. In summary, Canha has a lot of skills that complement this Tigers team, such as being right-handed in a left-handed heavy lineup and being able to avoid strikeouts. His age doesn’t seem to be a big factor yet, and I’m confident he can produce an above average OPS+ again this year. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 440 AB | .258/.353/.407 | 13 HR | 57 RBI | 7 SB | 50 BB | 90 K ZiPS DC – 450 AB | .266/.371/.415 | 12 HR | 53 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 93 K THE BAT X – 437 AB | .252/.348/.391 | 11 HR | 51 RBI | 6 SB | 49 BB | 86 K ATC – 436 AB | .256/.352/.397 | 12 HR | 55 RBI | 7 SB | 52 BB | 88 K FGDC – 453 AB | .262/.362/.411 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 93 K RotoChamp – 442 AB | .258/.361/.403 | 12 HR | 54 RBI | 7 SB | 52 BB | 89 K CBS Sports – 451 AB | .279/.359/.424 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 7 SB | 42 BB | 99 K ESPN – 470 AB | .255/.356/.400 | 12 HR | 64 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 89 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 435 AB | .262/.355/.400 | 11 HR | 62 RBI | 11 SB | 49 BB | 79 K 2024 Prediction – 439 AB | .257/.351/.387 | 9 HR | 61 RBI | 9 SB | 51 BB | 83 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #8 – Parker Meadows Parker Meadows was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 Draft and made his Major League debut in August last year, playing in 37 games with a .232/.331/.368 slash line with three home runs and a respectful 94 wRC+ in 145 plate appearances. Because I can, let’s take his small sample size and break it up into even smaller sample sizes: First 49 PA – .302/.388/.465 Next 46 PA – .087/.232/.152 Last 40 PA – .361/.425/.556 Does this really mean anything? No, not really. It just shows the ups and downs of someone trying to adjust at the Major League level. I would guess that we will see streaks like this throughout the 2024 season from Meadows. Now let’s take a look at some of his rate stats the last few years: 2022 (AA) – 489 PA | 10.6% BB% | 18.4% K% | 3.3% HR% | 11.05 HR/FB% 2023 (AAA) – 517 PA | 11.0% BB% | 23.8% K% | 3.7% HR% | 14.1% HR/FB% 2022 (MLB) – 145 PA | 11.7% BB% | 25.5% K% | 2.1% HR% | 8.1% HR/FB% The walk rate looks good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it over 10 percent again in 2024. Strikeouts are high, but that’s to be expected, especially during the adjustment period in the Majors. As far as the power numbers are concerned, it’s not unusual to see someone develop power as they start to enter their prime years. Meadows is entering his age-24 season, so he’s right there. He topped out at 22 home runs last season between AAA and the MLB. His ISO was .191 in AA and .218 in AAA, indicating what it could potentially be in the Majors. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him regularly hit over 20 home runs during his prime years if he can reach his full potential. However, he might have a hard time reaching 20 home runs during 2024 as he continues to adjust. Parker Meadows primarily hit 7th in the batting order in his brief stint with the Tigers last year, although A.J. Hinch has been using him in the leadoff spot during Spring Training. This may allow for more stolen base attempts in 2024. He stole 17 bases in AA in 2022 and 19 in AAA last year before getting called up. His 8 stolen bases for the Tigers, ranked 4th on the team (behind Zach McKinstry, 16; Akil Baddoo, 14; and Javier Baez, 12) despite his limited playing time. I think it’s very likely that he could surpass 20 steals in 2024, especially if he can continue to get on base via the walk. I think Parker Meadows is an All-Star in the making, but it’ll take few years to get to his full potential. 2024 is going to have its ups and downs, but I expect an overall solid season, with overall league average numbers, which I think most Tiger fans will be happy with, especially with his above-average defense. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 498 AB | .234/.309/.390 | 15 HR | 52 RBI | 13 SB | 51 BB | 132 K ZiPS DC – 536 AB | .228/.294/.373 | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 13 SB | 43 BB | 133 K THE BAT X – 462 AB | .226/.291/.375 | 13 HR | 50 RBI | 12 SB | 40 BB | 129 K ATC – 457 AB | .230/.301/.382 | 13 HR | 49 RBI | 15 SB | 43 BB | 124 K FGDC – 474 AB | .231/.302/.381 | 14 HR | 54 RBI | 13 SB | 46 BB | 129 K RotoChamp – 464 AB | .231/.306/.381 | 13 HR | 52 RBI | 13 SB | 43 BB | 127 K CBS Sports – 475 AB | .253/.325/.411 | 15 HR | 56 RBI | 17 SB | 47 BB | 130 K ESPN – 436 AB | .232/.320/.413 | 12 HR | 44 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 116 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 125 AB | .232/.331/.368 | 3 HR | 13 RBI | 8 SB | 17 BB | 37 K 2024 Prediction – 480 AB | .244/.327/.400 | 16 HR | 53 RBI | 21 SB | 56 BB | 139 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #7 – Jack Rafe Flaherty The St. Louis Cardinals drafted Jack Flaherty in the first round of the 2014 draft as a compensatory pick for losing Carlos Beltran as a free agent. He was ranked the #53 overall prospect prior to the 2018 season, after briefly pitching in the Majors Leagues in 2017. He had his first full season in 2018, in which he pitched 151 innings with a 3.34 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 182 strikeouts and finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. In 2019, as a 23-year-old, he improved even further with a 2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts in a little over 196 innings and finishing 4th in Cy Young voting. In 2020, Flaherty only started 9 games due to the COVID-shorted season with a 4.91 ERA. In 2021, he bounced back to a 3.22 ERA but only pitched in a little over 78 innings due to injuries. In 2022, still dealing with injuries, he had a 4.25 ERA in only 36 innings of work. In 2023, he finally was able to avoid any major injuries, pitching a little over 144 innings for both the Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles, but struggled with a 4.99 ERA (6.75 ERA with the Orioles), but still managed 9.23 strikeouts per nine. The Tigers signed him to a 1-year deal for starting pitching depth during the off-season. Will he be able to get back to full health and being effective for the Tigers? During his breakout season of 2019, Flaherty had a 10.59 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.52 walks per nine innings, and 1.15 home runs per nine innings for an FIP of 3.46, which was higher than his 2.75 ERA, indicating there might have been some luck in an overall great season. For his career, his stats are 10.08 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9. His overall 3.75 ERA and 4.01 FIP could just mean he naturally outpaces his FIP (despite having a 4.99 ERA and a 4.36 FIP last year). Interestingly, his ground ball rate was only 39.5 percent in 2019, one of the lowest rates of his career, compared to 42.7 percent last year and 41.4 percent overall. I really like a high ground ball rate for a pitcher as it can limit the damage. Flare throws a 4-seam fastball, slider, knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, and sinker (is that too many pitches?), with the slider being the most problematic last year: 2019 – 27.6% Usage | .184 BAA | .324 SLG Against | 45.2% Whiff% | 19% Hard Hit% 2020 – 28.7% Usage | .176 BAA | .314 SLG Against | 49.5% Whiff% | 23.3% Hard Hit% 2021 – 28.3% Usage | .215 BAA | .366 SLG Against | 40.5% Whiff% | 36.5% Hard Hit% 2022 – 25.1% Usage | .214 BAA | .286 SLG Against | 35.4% Whiff% | 34.4% Hard Hit% 2023 - 24.6% Usage | .339 BAA | .558 SLG Against | 26.5% Whiff% | 43.6% Hard Hit% Jack Flaherty’s Run Value for the slider went from a positive 11 in 2019 to a negative 5 in 2023. Another dramatic change in Run Value was his 4-seam fastball, going from a positive 22 in 2019 to a negative 5 in 2023, despite no loss in velocity (about 93 MPH both years). Spin rate and movement on his fastball has noticeably gotten worse the last few years: 2020 – 85% Active Spin% | 15.7 inches in total movement 2021 – 79% Active Spin% | 15.4 inches in total movement 2022 – 73% Active Spin% | 13.8 inches in total movement 2023 – 72% Active Spin% | 13.1 inches in total movement Data before 2020 isn’t available for these stats. Is it possible for these stats to improve in 2024? Flaherty is still only entering his age-28 season, so a natural age decline shouldn’t be happening just yet, considering he is fully healthy. Comerica is a pitcher-friendly park, and he’ll be working with pitching coach Chris Fetter, who in my opinion is one of the better pitching coaches in baseball. Everything looks good for a bounce back season, even if he can’t reach 2019 levels again. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 155 IP | 9-10 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 149 K | 62 BB ZiPS DC – 127 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.54 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 148 K | 66 BB THE BAT – 143 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 137 K | 61 BB ATC – 137 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 134 K | 57 BB FGDC – 153 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.46 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 149 K | 64 BB RotoChamp – 144 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 140 K | 61 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 144 IP | 7 W | 4.25 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 149 K | 68 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 144 1/3 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.99 ERA | 1.580 WHIP | 148 K | 66 BB 2024 Prediction – 154 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.422 WHIP | 154 K | 67 BB

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #6 – Ednel Javier Baez The Tigers signed Javier Baez before the 2021 season. In his two seasons in Detroit, Baez has hit .230/.273/.361 with 26 home runs and a 77 OPS+ in 1,137 plate appearances. His 62 OPS+ last year was the 2nd worst in all of baseball among qualified players; only Tim Anderson’s 60 OPS+ was worse. To say that Baez has been a disappointment is an understatement. And the Tigers still owe him $98 million over the next four years. Javier Baez hasn’t always been this terrible of a hitter. He was an All-Star for the Chicago Cubs in 2018-2019, hitting a combined .286/.321/.544 with 63 home runs and a 122 OPS+ in 1,206 plate appearances. After being traded to the New York Mets at the 2021 Trade Deadline, he hit .299/.371/.515 with a 140 OPS+ in 186 plate appearances. So, what happened? And more importantly, will he be able to get back to this production (or at least a league average hitter)? A couple of stats that stand out is his hard-hit rates and barrel percentages, according to Baseball Savant: 2018 – 43.3% Hard Hit % | 12.6% Barrel % 2019 – 43.6% Hard Hit % | 12.7% Barrel % 2020 – 40.3% Hard Hit % | 8.1% Barrel % 2021 – 45.2% Hard Hit % | 13.4% Barrel % ---------------------------------------------------------- 2022 – 38.0% Hard Hit % | 8.0% Barrel % 2023 – 39.7% Hard Hit % | 5.2% Barrel % There’s a noticeable drop-off in both of these stats since joining the Tigers. He just finished his age-30 season last year, but it feels more like it was his age-40 season. This drop-off usually doesn’t happen to someone who is supposed to still be in his prime years. On a more positive note, his strikeout rate has improved since his Cubs days, but his walk rate has been consistently below-average. As far as power goes, Baez topped off at 34 home runs in 2018 and he hit as much as 31 in 2021. Obviously, his power has diminished since, falling to just 7.3 percent home run to fly ball ratio last year, even though his overall batted ball rates have been mostly consistent (about 50 percent ground balls and 32-34 percent fly balls). 2018 – 25.9% K% | 4.5% BB% | 24.3% HR/FB% 2019 – 27.8% K% | 5.0% BB% | 24.45% HR/FB% 2020 – 31.9% K% | 3.0% BB% | 17.0% HR/FB% 2021 – 33.6% K% | 5.1% BB% | 28.2% HR/FB% --------------------------------------------------------------- 2022 – 24.9% K% | 4.4% BB% | 12.3% HR/FB% 2023 – 22.9% K% | 4.4% BB% | 7.3% HR/FB% Javier Baez claims that he was dealing with injuries over the last two seasons, which is why his performance has been so awful. He also claims that with his new training routine this off-season, he is feeling more like his old self (and all without surgery!), giving us our first, “best shape of his life” Spring Training story. Whether or not this translates to better stats has yet to be seen, but I guess there’s hope. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 496 AB | .241/.288/.397 | 16 HR | 62 RBI | 9 SB | 26 BB | 135 K ZiPS DC – 524 AB | .236/.280/.377 | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 11 SB | 25 BB | 143 K THE BAT X – 499 AB | .248/.293/.394 | 14 HR | 59 RBI | 14 SB | 27 BB | 129 K ATC – 502 AB | .241/.287/.386 | 14 HR | 61 RBI | 11 SB | 25 BB | 134 K FGDC – 520 AB | .238/.284/.387 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 142 K RotoChamp – 507 AB | .241/.287/.387 | 15 HR | 11 SB | 26 BB | 136 K CBS Sports – 490 AB | .249/.299/.398 | 14 HR | 11 SB | 25 BB | 122 K ESPN – 509 AB | .234/.279/.371 | 14 HR | 13 SB | 24 BB | 135 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K 2023 Actual – 510 AB | .222/.267/.325 | 9 HR | 59 RBI | 12 SB | 24 BB | 125 K 2024 Prediction – 527 AB | .235/.282/.372 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 12 SB | 26 BB | 136 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #5 – Kenta Maeda After playing 8 years in Japan, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda to an 8-year deal in 2016. Immediately, he made an impact in his rookie year, pitching a little over 175 innings in 32 starts with 16 wins, a 3.48 ERA, 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Over the next few years, Maeda would be inconsistent, pitching in and out of the rotation, with his biggest asset being the strikeout with a 9.4, 11.0, and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings during 2017-2019. After the 2019 season, the Dodgers traded him to the Minnesota Twins, in which he had his best season in 2020, with a 2.70 ERA, a league-leading 0.75 WHIP, 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, and finishing third in Cy Young voting. However, 2020 was the COVID-short season, so he only made 11 starts and pitched a little over 66 innings. Small sample sizes should always be taken with a grain of salt. In September 2021, he had Tommy John surgery, so he missed all of the 2022 season. On April 26, 2023, he gave up 10 earned runs in just 3 innings against the New York Yankees. After the game he was placed on the injured list with right triceps strain. After coming off the IL, he finished the season with a 3.36 ERA and 103 strikeouts in a little over 88 innings. The Tigers decided to sign Maeda to a 2-year deal after the 2023 season to help strengthen the rotation after the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez. Now entering his age-36 season, what should we expect from him? He continues to dominate in the strikeout department, having a career 9.9 strikeout per nine innings. His walk rate was pretty high in 2018-2019, around 3.0, but has since gone down to 2.7 in 2021 and 2.4 in 2023. Home runs have consistently been between 1.0-1.5 per nine (and will likely remain down in Comerica Park). Aside from his great 2020 season, he has always been around league average in ERA, with a career ERA+ of 105. His career FIP is 3.74, compared to his ERA of 3.92. It's no surprise to see that his best year, 2020, also showed his best ground ball rate, 49 percent. Since then, it has dropped to 38.4 percent in 2021 and just 32.6 percent in 2023 (one of the lowest in all of baseball). According to Baseball Savant, Maeda threw his split finger the most, 32 percent of the time, and is by far his best pitch with a .182 opponent batting average (so why the low ground ball rate?). By contrast, his sinker was the worst, with a .385 opponent batting average. However, he only threw that pitch 6 percent of the time, so it may be registering as a badly executed split finger. What’s interesting is that in 2021, his slider was the most often used pitch, 37 percent, and fell to 31 percent usage in 2023 (in 2020, he threw it 40 percent of the time). His slider has become less effective, going from a .424 slugging against in 2021 to a .550 slugging against in 2023, with 10 of his 17 home runs given up coming off a slider. Even without factoring in the COVID season and his TJ injury, durability has been a concern for Maeda. His rookie year remains to be the year with his most innings, 175 2/3. It’s probably reasonable to expect at least one IL stint during 2024. Consistency is another concern, with the Dodgers moving him in and out of the rotation not being a good sign. Although, seeing his 2020 season gives some hope in what he can do in a short amount of time. Maeda is at an age where you would expect to see some declining numbers. Also coming off a serious injury like TJ is also a concern. However, he has not shown much of a decline in his overall numbers – yet. If he can hold on to being a league average pitcher a little bit longer, that would be great. But sooner or later, the bottom is going to fall off. Hopefully it comes later. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 144 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.09 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 147 K | 41 BB ZiPS DC – 125 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.51 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 117 K | 41 BB THE BAT – 130 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 129 K | 43 BB ATC – 130 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.21 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 134 K | 37 BB FGDC – 135 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 132 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 132 IP | 8-9 W/L | 4.30 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 131 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 154 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.74 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 164 K | 45 BB ESPN – 156 IP | 8 W | 4.04 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 175 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 104 1/3 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.23 ERA | 1.169 WHIP | 117 K | 28 BB 2024 Prediction – 134 2/3 IP | 9-7 W/L | 4.11 ERA | 1.132 WHIP | 149 K | 37 BB

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #4 – Kerry William Carpenter Kerry Carpenter was drafted in the 19th round by the Tigers in 2019 and unexpectedly rose through the ranks, hitting .252/.310/.485 with 6 HR in 113 PA for the Tigers in 2022. In 2023, he forced himself into a bigger role by continuing to hit and sharing the DH spot with Miguel Cabrera. He finished with a .278/.340/.471 batting line with 20 home runs. Going into 2024, he has a more secure role in the starting lineup. Will he continue to hit? The answer: maybe..? Manager A.J. Hinch likes a flexible roster and playing lefty/righty matchups. The Tigers have a slew of left-handed hitting outfielders (Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Zach McKinstry), so the addition of right-handed hitter Mark Canha will fit right in. And while not a strict platoon, sitting Carpenter against tough left-handed pitching might be a great idea. Vs. RHP – 381 PA | .286/.341/.500 | 18 HR Vs. LHP – 78 PA | .235/.333/.324 | 2 HR Kerry Carpenter loses a lot of power against left-handed pitchers, but his .194 overall ISO is very good and was third on the Tigers team behind Jake Rogers (.224) and Spencer Torkelson (.213). As with several other Tiger hitters, he struggles with the strikeouts (25.1 percent) and he also had a below average 7.0 percent walk rate. He is entering his age-26 season, so he is just entering his prime years; there is a good chance that we haven’t seen the very best out of Carpenter yet. However, there is the fact that Carpenter pretty much came out of nowhere. For every J.D. Martinez, there are five Brennan Boesch’s. It’s far more likely that Carpenter turns into Boesch than Martinez. While he has a good hard hit rate (35.5 percent) and a decent home run to fly ball ratio (18.5 percent), he also hits the ball on the ground too much for my liking (44.7 percent) and he tends to be a pull hitter (45.1 percent). The word is out and opposing pitchers are going to try to expose these weaknesses, such as throwing more breaking pitches; he only has a .151 batting average against sliders with a 30 percent strikeout rate. The last month of the season, he hit .250/.314/.315 with 0 home runs in 118 plate appearances after coming off a monstrous August in which he hit .347/.405/.654 with 9 home runs in 111 plate appearances. That’s not to say he cannot overcome these weaknesses. He is still young and only time will tell if he has a career more like Boesch or J.D. But how will he do in 2024? There is still a lot of uncertainty with Carpenter and it could go either way, so here’s hoping he goes in the right direction. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 466 AB | .255/.318/.447 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 4 SB | 37 BB | 127 K ZiPS DC – 473 AB | .256/.315/.439 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 33 BB | 122 K THE BAT X – 483 AB | .253/.318/.439 | 19 HR | 67 RBI | 6 SB | 40 BB | 129 K ATC – 485 AB | .258/.320/.456 | 23 HR | 73 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 131 K FGDC – 471 AB | .256/.316/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 35 BB | 125 K RotoChamp – 480 AB | .256/.324/.448 | 21 HR | 71 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 128 K CBS Sports – 478 AB | .289/.356/.487 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 9 SB | 39 BB | 127 K ESPN – 497 AB | .266/.333/.463 | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 138 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 418 AB | .278/.340/.471 | 20 HR | 64 RBI | 6 SB | 32 BB | 115 K 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #3 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Tarik Skubal emerged as the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2023 in terms of ERA (2.80), WHIP (0.867), K/BB (7.29), and HR/9 (0.45). According to FanGraphs, he was also the top Tigers’ player in WAR at 3.3 wins, even beating out all of the hitters, despite missing half of the year. Among all pitchers in the league with at least 80 innings pitched, Skubal was 7th in ERA, 7th in K/9 (11.43), 8th in BB/9 (1.57), and 2nd in HR/9. He was also first in both FIP (2.00) and xFIP (2.56), indicating that his success wasn’t a fluke or based on luck (in fact you could argue he was a bit unlucky). If he can keep his pace for a full 30-32 start season, he will no doubt be a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball in 2024. “If” is the key part, though. It’s hard for any pitcher to keep that kind of pace for a full season, especially for someone who hasn’t done it at the Major League level yet. However, Skubal is entering his age-27 season, right in his prime years, so he’s in a good position to do so as long as he can stay healthy. In August of 2022, he had flexor tendon surgery that kept him out until the middle of the 2023 season, limiting him to only 15 starts. A lot of Skubal’s success has come in improving on the three true outcomes, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Another stat that he has greatly improved on is his ground ball rate, which went over 50 percent in 2023. This is great for a pitcher as it can limit the amount of damage a hitter can do, such as limiting the home runs. 2021 – 9.88 K/9 | 2.83 BB/9 | 2.11 HR/9 | 38.5% GB% 2022 – 8.95 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 0.69 HR/9 | 45.7% GB% 2023 – 11.43 K/9 | 1.57 BB/9 | 0.45 HR/9 | 51.6% GB% Tarik Skubal has done everything that I like to see a young pitcher do, high strikeouts, low walks and home runs, and a high groundball rate. There is really very little to critique here other than hoping that he can stay healthy and durable all year. There is one split stat that is worth noting here. Skubal was noticeably better at home than he was on the road. Home – 39 1/3 IP | 1.37 ERA | 59 K | 7 BB Away – 41 IP | 4.17 ERA | 43 K | 7 BB However, we are back to talking about small sample sizes here. There is one start that has skewed these stats, July 18 at Kansas City, where Skubal allowed 7 earned runs. This is the only start in which he gave up more than 5 earned runs. In three starts, he allowed 4 earned runs each. The remaining 11 starts, he allowed 2 earned runs or less. He particularly finished strong; in his last 5 starts, he allowed 2 runs or fewer and in 3 of these starts he pitched 7 innings/start. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 171 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.32 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 198 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 144 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 150 K | 36 BB THE BAT – 139 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.50 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 161 K | 41 BB ATC – 155 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.44 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 177 K | 41 BB FGDC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.47 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 174 K | 41 BB RotoChamp – 151 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.46 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 170 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 167 IP | 13-7 W/ L | 3.18 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 183 K | 42 BB ESPN – 153 IP | 11 W | 3.18 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 188 K | 39 BB My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – N/A 2023 Actual – 80 1/3 IP | 7-3 W/L | 2.80 ERA | 0.896 WHIP | 102 K | 14 BB 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB

Yes, I put the wrong label. It should have simply read 3.4 percent home run rate (HR/PA).

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Greene Another young Tigers’ hitter that broke out last year was Riley Greene, who hit .288/.349/.447 with a 119 wRC+. However, Greene only played in 99 games (416 PA). This is the second year in a row that Greene has missed a significant part of the season due to injury; in 2022 he missed the first part of the season due to a foot injury that he suffered during Spring Training and only played in 93 games (418 PA). In 2023 he missed the month of June due to injury as well as having Tommy John surgery in September on his non-throwing arm (although he is expected to be on the Opening Day roster). Hopefully 2024 is the year that he can get a full season workload in. Just like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene was a former first round draft pick and was the fourth best overall prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2022 season. So, after having a slightly below average season his rookie year (.253/.321/.362, 96 wRC+), it is no surprise that Greene became one of the Tigers’ better hitters in 2023. Although, one stat that sticks out is his .384 batting average of balls in play (BABIP), which usually indicates a bit of good fortune when it is that high. However, his expected batting average, XBA, was .289 (.288 actual batting average) and his expected wOBA was .365 (.363 actual wOBA). This indicates no luck at all. Regardless, it will be very difficult to repeat a BABIP that high again (especially over a full season workload). One stat I’d like to point out is his vast difference in launch angles: 2022 – 2.8 degrees launch angle | 20.1% LD% | 56.0% GB% | 23.9% FB% | 8.1% HR/FB 2023 – 6.6 degrees launch angle | 26.3% LD% | 48.9% GB% | 24.8% FB% | 16.7% HR/FB Riley Greene is entering his age-23 season, so he is in a good position to improve on his stats after already seeing some success in 2023. It is nice to see that his ground ball rate went from over 50 percent in 2022 to below 50 percent in 2023, due to the difference in launch angles. The more balls that Greene can drive in the air, the more power he will produce, which resulted in more than doubling his home run to fly ball ratio last year. Greene has enough speed to beat out a ground ball (.254 AVG on GB), he also stole seven bases and had four triples in his limited playing time last year. I can easily see his stolen base numbers in the double digits this year, if he can stay healthy. Similarly to Torkelson, Greene also has weaknesses in strikeouts (27.4 percent strikeout rate) and below average defense (-5 DRS in centerfield). However, having Parker Meadows take over in centerfield with Greene moving to one of the corners should help with his defense. Also like Torkelson, Greene now has Major League experience, a bit of Major League success, and youth on his side to overall improve in 2024. Now he just needs to stay healthy. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 573 AB | .273/.343/.438 | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 8 SB | 58 BB | 163 K ZiPS DC – 555 AB | .268/.336/.438 | 19 HR | 69 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 161 K THE BAT X – 520 AB | .265/.340/.432 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 151 K ATC – 524 AB | .267/.343/.433 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 10 SB | 51 BB | 153 K FGDC – 551 AB | .270/.339/.438 | 18 HR | 69 RBI | 8 SB | 55 BB | 158 K RotoChamp – 532 AB | .271/.340/.436 | 17 HR | 66 RBI | 9 SB | 54 BB | 154 K CBS Sports – 494 AB | .298/.362/.488 | 18 HR | 60 RBI | 11 SB | 48 BB | 143 K ESPN – 527 AB | .268/.340/.442 | 16 HR | 56 RBI | 9 SB | 56 BB | 152 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K

Bobrob’s 2024 Preseason Prediction #1 – Spencer Enochs Torkelson After a disappointing rookie season in which Tork only hit .203/.285/.319 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI in 110 games, he bounced back with a .233/.313/.446 batting line in 2023 in 159 games with an impressive 31 home runs (T-7th in the American League). It was the latter half of the season in which he finally showed Tiger fans the kind of power hitter he could be at the Major League level. MAR-JUL: 447 PA | .227/.304/.403 | 15 HR | 43 BB | 108 K AUG-OCT: 237 PA | .244/.329/.526 | 16 HR | 24 BB | 63 K While his batting average slightly improved the last two months, it was his power increase that really stood out. Torkelson only averaged 3.4 home runs per plate appearances in his first 447 plate appearances, but that doubled to 6.8 home runs per plate appearances the final 237 plate appearances. At that pace, he would have had 46 home runs over a full season, which would have been most in the American League. Of course, the problem here is sample size; two months is not a sufficient enough sample to be making a lot of significant analysis (looking at you, 2020 Willi Castro). On the one hand, it could be a fluke. On the other hand, Torkelson is a former first round, first overall draft pick who was a top five prospect in both 2021 and 2022. Seeing him breakout was not only not surprising, but somewhat inevitable. Torkelson is entering his age 24-season, so it would not even be that surprising to see him improve further on these numbers over a full 2024 season. Looking at Tork’s splits, one thing that jumps out is that he’s a much better hitter on the road than at home (even after moving the fences in): Home: 340 PA | .219/.312/.387 | 11 HR | 37 RBI Away: 344 PA | .246/.314/.502 | 20 HR | 57 RBI Other weaknesses for Torkelson include his high strikeout rate (25 percent), trouble hitting off-speed pitches (.127 batting average against changeups), and his below average defense (-11 DRS). But again, he is just entering his third Major League season and has not even reached his prime years yet. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic this season. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 568 AB | .242/.331/.456 | 30 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | 71 BB | 152 K ZiPS DC – 578 AB | .243/.326/.476 | 33 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 551 AB | .247/.330/.457 | 27 HR | 86 RBI | 3 SB | 64 BB | 148 K ATC – 550 AB | .244/.329/.461 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 3 SB |65 BB | 150 K FGDC – 575 AB | .243/.329/.466 | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 3 SB | 70 BB | 154 K RotoChamp – 558 AB | .244/.331/.462 | 30 HR | 88 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 149 K CBS Sports – 468 AB | .259/.340/.485 | 25 HR | 75 RBI | 3 SB | 53 BB | 131 K ESPN – 607 AB | .241/.315/.465 | 34 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 62 BB | 165 K My Prediction: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K 2024 Prediction – 603 AB | .231/.315/.483 | 39 HR | 99 RBI | 2 SB | 71 BB | 175 K

Going back, I wish I had done Jake Rogers, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, and Tarik Skubal instead of Eric Haas, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Schoop, and Spencer Turnbull, but there was a lot of uncertainty in Spring Training this year.

Time to see how bad my predictions are: Javier Baez: 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K 2023 Actual – 510 AB | .222/.267/.325 | 9 HR | 59 RBI | 12 SB | 24 BB | 125 K Eduardo Rodriguez: 2023 Prediction – 128 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.415 WHIP | 117 K | 47 BB 2023 Actual – 152 2/3 IP | 13-9 W/L | 3.30 ERA | 1.153 WHIP | 143 K | 48 BB Riley Greene: 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K 2023 Actual – 378 AB | .288/.349/.447 | 11 HR | 37 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 114 K Michael Lorenzen: 2023 Prediction – 123 1/3 IP | 6-10 W/L | 4.45 ERA | 1.330 WHIP | 100 K | 58 BB 2023 Actual (total) – 153 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.209 WHIP | 111 K | 47 BB Jonathan Schoop: 2023 Prediction – 546 AB | .253/.288/.390 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 8 SB | 23 BB | 125 K 2023 Actual – 136 AB | .213/.278/.272 | 0 HR | 7 RBI | 0 SB | 13 BB | 37 K Matt Boyd: 2023 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-7 W/L | 4.18 ERA | 1.338 WHIP | 126 K | 42 BB 2023 Actual – 71 IP | 5-5 W/L | 5.45 ERA | 1.324 WHIP | 73 K | 25 BB Austin Meadows: 2023 Prediction – 492 AB | .254/.340/.429 | 20 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 60 BB | 121 K 2023 Actual – 21 AB | .238/.238/.286 | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 0 SB | 0 BB | 3 K Eric Haas: 2023 Prediction – 390 AB | .246/.299/.462 | 23 HR | 60 RBI | 29 BB | 123 K 2023 Actual (total) – 274 AB | .201/.247/.281 | 4 HR | 26 RBI | 17 BB | 81 K Miguel Cabrera: 2023 Prediction – 300 AB | .250/.298/.313 | 4 HR | 33 RBI | 0 SB | 20 BB | 78 K 2023 Actual – 334 AB | .257/.322/.353 | 4 HR | 34 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 74 K Matt Manning: 2023 Prediction –136 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.63 ERA | 1.254 WHIP | 122 K | 46 BB 2023 Actual – 78 IP | 5-4 W/L | 3.58 ERA | 1.038 WHIP | 50 K | 21 BB Spencer Torkelson: 2023 Prediction – 538 AB | .232/.320/.396 | 20 HR | 54 RBI | 0 SB | 65 BB | 135 K 2023 Actual – 606 AB | .233/.313/.446 | 31 HR | 94 RBI | 3 SB | 67 BB | 171 K Spencer Turnbull: 2023 Prediction – 125 IP | 7-7 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.232 WHIP | 113 K | 40 BB 2023 Actual – 31 IP | 1-4 W/L | 7.26 ERA | 1.677 WHIP | 24 K | 15 BB Nick Maton: 2023 Prediction – 261 AB | .241/.322/.375 | 6 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 32 BB | 87 K 2023 Actual – 249 AB | .173/.288/.305 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 1 SB | 38 BB | 73 K Matt Vierling: 2023 Prediction – 340 AB | .250/.319/.385 | 8 HR | 32 RBI | 11 SB | 34 BB | 79 K 2023 Actual – 479 AB | .261/.329/.388 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 6 SB | 44 BB | 112 K

Why do you always have to focus on the negative? /s

Best records in their own division: ATL - 35-17 DET - 35-17 LAD - 34-18 SEA - 33-19 MIL - 33-19

Pretty sure that was McCartney and he was 20 when he wrote it.

Remember a few years ago when it was revealed that Pete Rose was in a sexual relationship with a 14 year old girl during the 1970s?

I usually don't try to get a low rarity score, but this is the first where I tried. ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 133 9/9: Rarity: 34 IMMACULATE! 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩 Play at: https://immaculategrid.com @immaculategrid x @baseball_ref