gehringer_2

I suppose the PaleHose are the caution. They had a real nice trend going from 2018 to 2021, were supposedly going to be the team of a decade, and promptly sank like a rock. Not that I'm complaining, mind you....

LOL - If the Tigers come within a game or two here but miss, and then end up falling back for a couple of years and don't get this close, Harris will never live it down. I hope that isn't likely, but you never know.....

I'll be waiting to see how loud the howling is the first time a penalty is called on a face-off infraction.

Posters have identified that there are potential weaknesses in both FG player based and BR team based approaches. I guess you would have to look at their historical success to judge if either has proven to be more accurate over time. I think the player based projection approach potentially brings more input data the analysis so on that logical grounds you could argue it could be superior - and even more so for a veteran team, but arguments like that may or may not hold in the real world.

One of them had to. Also have to give Santander a lot of credit for not letting CV put him off his game.

The trade would be Jungs bat for Keith's. Is that worth 2 runs? Obviously not, but then again, most of the time the play would have been made.

well, 9-0 probably wasn't in the cards.

pIxie dust supply down tonight.

Reports are that is was the guy who plotted the Marine Barracks bombing in '83 - now Hezbollah's military commander.

yeah, he didn't let them strike he did go to bat for them hard, browbeating the RR's into giving them most/all they would have gotten out of a strike.

Thank-you. I felt there had to be a catch because I couldn't remember what I described ever happening! And it make perfect sense that it wouldn't be allowed.

absolutely. You can't blame any prediction system for inaccuracy about something which is fundamentally unpredictable. Statistics are only meaningful if the thing you are measuring has some kind of consistency. A team full of so many rookies/2nd year guys/redesigned pitchers etc., plus a manager who has decided to play by a whole different set of roster rules, is full of unknown deviations.

LOL - that's pretty much what every Tiger fan is probably holding their breath about!

that might be interesting. Say you cut him and no-one picked him up. He's off the 40, you are still paying him. If you still haven't got insurance behind Sweeney, could you turn around and give him an invite to ST? Doesn't seem right but off the top of my head I can't see exactly why.

and indeed they do. 55/50

But Dearborn is going to throw MI to Trump...

he certainly will be if he pitches successfully again.

I think I get what BRef does with SRS, which appears to be a rolling average purely based on a team's last 100 game outcomes. If fangraphs is using a zips based system does that mean they are rebuilding each team's performance from their individual player projections? EDIT: one possible source of error in the rolling 100 game model is the step discontinuity in team composition at the deadline.

It's something that gives you a sanity check for what you are thinking in your fan brain. and this. In the end, everyone gets in or not after 162, but there is something special about watching the odds improve after your team is left for dead for good reason.

BRef certainly like the Tigers more - looks like once they process today's game they may rate Tigers ahead of Minny.

I'm not very confident the starting pitching holds up. The downside risks include Montero missing a decreasing number of bats, and Mize's unreliability. I was almost more optimistic about BP days than Casey's starts. OTOH, Olson could get back on track and lock down a couple games.

have you ever tried to blow up a dead lithium battery?

If a team was in every way a static entity, then you would just look at the season win-loss record and who was left to play (and their records) and the probability you'd get would be the best available predictor. I assume FG and ESPN do something like that. But we know a team is not a static entity. The personnel is always in flux, and the players themselves go through arcs of injury and health, some of which never even become public. Some young players are in a real process of getting better over the course of a year, maybe an older one irreversibly starts to break down. So the art of handicapping in large part turns on how far back do you want to go to get the 'best' estimate of a team's likely winning rate over the next X games. The further back you go, the stronger the statistical 'power' in the estimate, but the more your assumption that you are looking at the 'same' team all across the sample may be breaking down. If you take the whole season, since their records are exactly equal the best estimate would be the Twins and Tigers will win the same number of games of the next 9 so Minny end up winning by the tie-breaker (ignoring the difference in the quality of the opposition just for the sake of outlining the argument). If you look from the ASB, the Tigers would be slightly favored. If you look at the last 30, the Tigers would be clearly favored. Pay your money and take your choice! (if you like to gamble that is.......) 🤷‍♀️

Russians are finding out something that has always frustrated the West, which is that India is no-one's ally, it's foreign policy actions are about as transactional as it gets.

ESPN has them at 42%. TBH, if I were a bettor, I would rate the odds of the Tigers winning one more game of the last 9 than the Twins as better than 50% based on their current lineups.