Boyd will be good for about 1/2 the season IF they sign him and Avila appears to be willing to play a little hardball there so that's open. Not sure there is reason to assume Manning pitches any less than Mize or Skubal in '22 but that's a small nit to pick.
I still think it comes down to which position they are able to make the premium play at - SS or SP because I believe there will only be one signing in XS of $20M/yr. If it's a SS, then the two pitchers signed will both be mid to back end. If they score a Robbie Ray+ level SP, we are looking at an additional 5th starter type and SS that doesn't include any of the top FA names. It's the total dollars that are going to drive it. The MO seems to be that Chris Ilitch gives them a number and they mix and match up to that number. The number is going to be bigger this year than it has been in a while, but I still tend to think it's going to be a hard number (now reduced by Barnhardts 7.5M) that is less than would allow 2 $30M signings.