mtutiger

From living in a fairly conservative, exurban area, my only real observation is that this election cycle seems a lot more low-energy than 2016 and 2020 so far. Whether it remains that way, we will see.

Agreed. I also think she doesn't have a ton of incentive to go any further than her statement today either.... she gets compared to Ted Cruz a lot, but Ted was also a sitting lawmaker who was up for reelection two years after in 2018. Haley is out of the game completely at the moment and an endorsement doesn't make her anymore likely to win a primary for anything in today's GOP.

lol

The other part about crosstabs is the size of them and making broad judgments. This poll, with N=800, has Trump at around 8% with black voters. NYT/Siena, with a much smaller N, had Trump at over 20%. The toplines may be right regardless in various national polls, but with subgroups,, oversamples of these groups from pollsters who know how to sample these groups (aside from this example, Univision with Hispanics as well) are inherently going to be more reliable than crosstabs from a national poll in gauging the electorate among these groups.

Not sure if he mentioned it in his piece (I don't subscribe, so behind paywall), but isn't the other 800 lb gorilla in the room here the fact that the last election cycle took place in the middle of a pandemic where, due to a bunch of people being at home, response rates (by age and partisanship) may have been much different in that cycle as well? I suspect that might explain a lot of how these polls show Biden/Dems doing significantly better with older voters and worse with younger and minority voters.... pollsters are likely reaching those high propensity older voters (who are probably more blue than the median older voter) a lot more easily and filling out the younger/minority pool (who are much harder to reach) l with whatever they can find.

I have no idea what she does, but whatever she does, I expect it to be kinda disappointing lol

Good point lol...

Looking at the returns from Colorado and seeing Haley's performance there, it's crazy that it was a swing state as recently as 2016.... It's basically the Dem version of Ohio lol

North Carolina also kinda confirms a little of what I suspect, with it being a semi-closed primary, that even in open primary states, it isn't just "all Democrats" voting against Trump.

If there's probably one state that I'm taking a little more seriously after what I've seen so far, it's North Carolina.... really underwhelming performance for Trump from the returns, particularly in suburban Charlotte, and they nominated an absolute nutcase (who dabbles in stuff like Holocaust denial) as their Gubernatorial candidate

Sawyer Gipson Long at #11.... Al's last two deadline deals may have been his best after all lol

Craig was better than normal, IMO, but definitely needs to not get in the way of Benetti as much as he did today.

I'm not even talking about Silver, I'm talking about the Times... They go out and write an article and characterize a respondant as an undecided independent who is concerned about Biden's age when a basic search turns up that said respondent is a hardcore registered R. This happens a lot with their reporting, has happened a lot in past election cycles as well. Does the Times do this on purpose or is it just lazy journalism that doesn't even do a basic background check of who they are talking to?

Pivoting back here, honest question for the group: Are they doing this intentionally? Or are the reporters just incredibly lazy?

At least $4 dollars of that has to be Illinois taxes lol

Mine is that averages and trends matter more than any one individual poll. And ultimately, when you look at the average, I don't know that the race has actually changed at all in the past few days despite all the handwringing A lot of this has to do with Times/Siena being treated like a media event whenever they release a poll.... they are highly respected, I get it, but even the best pollsters aren't going to nail every single poll they conduct. Which is why you average in the first place lol

Amazing how this stuff keeps happening

It's only been one inning, but I really like this new booth (including Craigger)

This one kinda tracks with Fabrizio/Lee/WSJ showing an improvement from last month. For all the words spilled about the Times poll, it still looks like a T +1-2 race to me. Which, like the scene in "Burn After Reading" with David Rasche and JK Simmons, leads me to sit here and ask, "what did we learn here?"

No doubt.... Interest rates, and whether any cuts happen, is probably the biggest question for me. As 1776 suggests, those may or may not come.

CBS/YouGov poll result notwithstanding, most of the polling (particularly the WSJ poll released this weekend) is suggesting that he's seen marginal improvement on economic metrics... still low, but at least headed in the right direction. People expect a huge snap back, but that's not really how the population operates after two years with an economy of high prices. Perceptions can change, but it will take time.

Usual caveats about this being a pro-Biden guy apply, but he's right that Biden will win if he wins independents by 8... and all of the polls (save CBS/YouGov) that were released this weekend do show Biden up with independents as a whole by varying degrees. I keep thinking there's a mix of non-response bias and just a lack of consolidation on his side among the base that is influencing the results right now. Both factors should be influenced by the ramping up of the actual campaign, which likely is coming after the SOTU this week.

I think Lee's point is fair about Biden not getting much credit for the relatively good economic metrics, but on a fundamental basis, you'd rather have this economy to run on anyway than the one that we had in 2022. I suspect that will matter as well prior to November.... it takes time for improved economic sentiment to start manifesting. Some of the latest polls suggest he's getting marginal boost in this metric (even if it isn't being reflected much at the top) But regardless, I'm with you that the fundamentals favor Biden more than the polls are suggesting at this moment. The fundraising and anemic grassroot participation on Trump's side is pretty eye-opening (granted even some of his supporters probably recognize that giving him $$$ is like sending it down a rathole lol)