mtutiger

Cygnal is a (R) pollster as well. The Times poll was horrific, but also a reminder that it isnt the only pollster either.

Prior to November 2020, I tended to be more in the "institutions would hold" camp, but frankly even in the event that there's hyperbole involved, I would prefer that we not have to test them in the first place to the degree that another Trump term would.

Exactly. That's the part of me that thinks that the "we're still a year out" point matters - the campaign really hasn't started yet (ie. Biden isn't out there campaigning, the GOP Primary is, nominally at least, ongoing). I don't think the electorate is paying that close of attention to any of this and is responding to their anxieties in the here and now. That is going to change, Trump will have to be in front of cameras more, Biden will start truly campaigning against him. And the situation more broadly could change, for better or worse. Not making predictions or saying changes are for the good or not, but there's a long way to go....

I do think he at least talked about policy more in 2016 and 2020.... particularly in 2016. But regardless, my point is kinda rhetorical - I don't think that what we are seeing from him now (ie. largely substance free) is gonna change. His personal problems will likely be his platform as a candidate in 2024. And people are going to have to decide whether that's a good enough reason to vote or not vote for him (or to vote third party, but that's a whole other debate)

I do think the "revenge" issue is a problem for him as a general election candidate. Not just for what it portends, but also because for a lot of voters (ie. the ones who will decide the next election, in the suburbs of Detroit, Milwaukee, Philly, etc.), that's not a winner for them. That's not an argument for them to cast a ballot for Trump and, despite of all Biden's issues, still remains a blinking neon sign pointing toward not voting for Trump. My question is this: can he present even a modicum of a platform beyond just revenge? I think he's largely out of focus right now, he hasn't faced the press much, he's done some rallies that are largely substance free. And Biden, as the actual POTUS, is way more in focus and dealing with significant issues such as the Middle East, economic issues, etc. But in the general election, I don't know that he can run as the substance-free candidate that he has to date. He will have to pivot - he probably will, but we haven't seen it yet because I don't think he's really been challenged enough (both in terms of the GOP Primary and in terms of polling) to do it.

Anybody? As dumb as a scenario that involves Biden being replaced by someone not named Kamala Harris would be, I still don't understand what exactly Gavin Newsom brings to the table that Josh Shapiro, Big Gretch, JB Pritzker, or probably 20-30 other Dem politicians bring. It all just feels like a media hype-train thing from the NYC/DC Beltway crowd that isn't grounded in any sort of reality.

And he only was in 18 games as a Tiger... It's fine.... they can course correct if they need to.

The Zack Short era has ended

That would require compromise. And there are few people in today's day and age willing to accept any compromises politically. Different example, but as someone who just moved from Texas (ie. the most gerrymandered state in the country) to Illinois (ie. the second-most gerrymandered state in the country), it's why I kinda laugh when conservatives complain about how the lines are drawn here - gerrymandering is a scourge, but if we are being honest with ourselves, it's not going away nationally without some sort of consensus or understanding between the parties. But that's not gonna happen, so....

Bump... Genuinely curious about why this guy keeps getting floated.

Jenna Ellis with a New York accent, this one...

Trump isn't sinking, but I also dont think everything he does is brilliant politically and that his brand is almost entirely built on holding a certain percentage of the GOP Primary electorate (which, no, is not a representative sample of the American public). I would argue that some of the poor performances in Midterms and Special Elections since 2020 are a pretty good example of the liabilities he presents... candidates who pushed the big lie in swing states tended to do a lot worse than normal counterparts, for instance. I just think some folks people (those who support him and who don't) attribute God-like qualities to him when he really doesn't deserve that kind of regard. He's eminently beatable and not well liked in his own regard, and there's nothing wrong with acknowledging that.

This appears to be going well

The general contours are the same, no doubt. I'm just not going to pretend he's an electoral powerhouse like FDR when he's clearly not. He has liabilities too.

Right, because Republicans primary voters (who aren't a representative sampling of the overall American electorate) like the guy.

The very same poll that we are talking about, in 5 of the 6 states, had Nikki Haley doing better than Trump, and had Generic Republican doing 10-15% better than Trump in matchups against Biden. It's an overread of the data to look at the results and conclude that is says anything about Trump's popularity. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Nah, I don't see the relevancy in a discussion about Donald Trump's popularity with the general public.

Case in point (from a different poll). The Siena polls are terrible for Biden, but they saya lot more about Biden's standing at the moment than Trump IMO

Most Americans still do not like Donald Trump and don't necessarily believe everything he says. Him doing better than Biden in these polls doesn't inherently make him popular.

I would also like to reiterate that there is a power that comes with incumbency, and that if Biden steps aside, that advantage goes away. Particularly if there ends up being a competitive primary. Just think people are overlooking that when they fantasize about alternatives.

In my view, the polls demonstrate that age is his biggest issue... views on Trump haven't improved in any of these polls, but rather it's almost like he is being treated like a "Generic Republican", particularly with younger voters who would clearly like to move onto something else. What concerns me is that, unlike certain issues coming and going from the public consciousness or even just policy course corrections to respond to weaknesses on certain issues (which you're starting to see more of in a couple of areas), there isn't much that can be done about his age. None of us can ever reverse the turn of time. Ultimately as rough a go as things have been, I don't see Biden being even with young people come 2024.... they will come home to a degree. But still, the polls shouldn't be ignored either. And if I were in his shoes, I'd be thinking long and hard about how 'fixable' his problems are.

Theoretically, yes, probably. In practice, a bloody protracted primary fight would end up being no better than the status quo.

Setting aside the disaster that an open primary process would be (again, people are underestimating the fallout of bypassing Harris, particularly with AA voters), I have never understood why people think Gavin Newsom would be a good candidate for President.

Terrible indeed, and really has me questioning whether he should reconsider his decision to run (although I doubt he will). The only thing I would add is that while this is another piece of evidence for a certain type of pundit (ie. Bill Kristol, Mike Murphy, etc.), all of these folks also think Harris is a bad choice as well and apparently desire an open primary process. Which would be, to put it mildly, a ****ing disaster.