mtutiger

Is the Target Insyght poll a D internal? District level polling can be a crapshoot, but if Dixon's numbers are like that in a district anchored mostly by Macomb County, she's going to have a lot of trouble winning Michigan.

Interesting map, although Kansas kinda makes these estimates look conservative. My guesses would be OK, AR, AL, LA, MS WV, and UT. TN and KY seem like coinflips (KY will be on the ballot this fall I believe)

If its 71-18 in California and a similar amendment (written inversely) in Kansas was 59-41, then how many states would actually pass a similar amendment? 5, 6?

Yeah... its not a slam dunk to do this tbh, but a big reason why we are here is a failure of public policy. And I'm old enough to remember the Chuck Grassleys of the world clapping like seals when the last administration ignited a public policy failure (ie. trade war) and responded by cutting government checks to farmers to fix the mess. So, while I think there is a fair debate to be had on whether the policy is right or not, so many of those who oppose this are flaming hypocrites and will take any and all government money that heads their way in other instances. And I just don't have much patience for it.

If there's one criticism, it is that it largely doesn't fix the root cause going forward. That said, for all the teeth gnashing from the Rs, I don't really take them seriously in terms of wanting to fix the problem tbh, given their hatred/demonization of higher ed.

Frankly, this is spot on.

Also suggests that, if Tarik returns to full strength next year, they may yet at least net a "Big 2" out of the "Big 3"

Lol

The debt forgiveness parts are admittedly tricky, but a lot of the additional proposals related to amounts owed relative to income and on interest seem like good things to me. It would be nice if this were coupled with a discussion or legislation dealing with the actual cost of college though.

The politics of this move give me a lot of anxiety (given how it will likely be used as a class warfare wedge), but I am amused that some of the loudest hollers on SM happen to be people who took PPP Loans lol

"Another" doing a lotta work here given his struggles at the dish recently

Even just a few months ago, there were no shortages of takes on the TX-34 Special Election (a GOP win and overperformance), which had roughly 27,500 votes total. NY-19, OTOH, had a turnout of roughly 129,000 votes. It's not even that the point doesn't have merit, but at least be consistent across elections.

Did these caveats ever apply when the GOP were outkicking the coverage in specials last year? Dems probably aren't winning the House, but idk what more needs to emerge to suggest that we currently aren't in wave territory

Miguel competed well in that last AB, but there was little confidence he could Ultimately hit Doval there.

Another lackluster special for the Rs

Amen

Good Lord, the political instincts on Dr. Oz are bad....

It may not make much of a difference in terms of control of the House / Senate when things are all said and done (given that it's a midterm with Ds in power), but the disconnect between the wants/desires of GOP Primary voters and general election voters in general is playing out in real time as we speak. Certainly one doesn't want to take credit away from Fetterman, Warnock, Ryan or even Barnes, but no doubt their candidacies have been aided by the GOP Primary voter elevating less than ideal candidates to compete for general election votes.

Just my two cents, but it's always worth remembering that not all 74 million who voted for Trump are the "cult" Trump folks. And when you look at the polling results in terms of approval of the FBI warrant (which runs somewhere between 55-60% approve depending on which poll one looks at), it stands to reason that he'd likely bleed support on the margins if he's indicted and/or incarcerated for any reason. I know there's a tendency to think that everything that happens benefits Trump in some way or another, but I doubt that incarceration would benefit him at all. Particularly with moderates and suburban voters.

Head on down to the ballpark, might be your last chance to see Zack Short in a Tigers uni

Bernie is gonna do what Bernie is gonna do. Having said that, it's a bit too cute to argue that age is an impediment to a Biden 2024 run while simultaneously pushing a Sanders run. Not saying that anyone in particular here is doing that, but do see that on SM some.

Seems right.... if BA has Flores at 90, then he must be one of the next in line to join once other members graduate.