mtutiger

I kinda want to expand on a point that I made to buddha in the SCOTUS thread (this is a better venue for it), but one thing that Roe reversal could end up doing is undercutting Republican talking points on parental choice; as we are all aware, this was a big theme in the Virginia/NJ elections in 2021 and a big part of messaging, particularly around education and schools. Well, Roe V. Wade is an example of a choice that had been given to parents as well (back in 1972), and more often than people realize, this is a choice that often is made by those who are already parents (for a variety of reasons). And Republicans, both through reversal of Roe and the subsequent campaigning for legislation in states where laws aren't on the books, get to campaign on taking choices away. Again, I don't know that the degree that it will have an impact, but it will... and a lot of Rs seem to be wishcasting that nothing about this matters.

That's interesting... although specials are low turnout affairs, so idk.

I dont know how much the news about Roe factored in considering how it had only been known less than 24 hours before, but it's also a reminder of the minefield a post-Roe landscape could be for R candidates tho. If that happens, all of these candidates are inevitably going to be asked questions about that issue, along with who should be punished, whether there should be exceptions for rape and incest, etc. Lot of opportunities for extreme candidates to fuck up and say something ridiculous

Mark Dmitri down as a "NO" on general mobilization

Ryan would maybe have a chance if he won a bunch of Dolan voters, but that's not how any of this works. Especially in this kinda midterm

But we are a country of 330+ million people... just from a practical stand point,, churches and non-profits alone *can't* bridge those gaps. So when we are talking about 750k who may be born who wouldn't otherwise, many into situations that aren't great and where the odds may be against them in having success in life, there's just a tremendous amount of cognitive dissonance in sitting and saying "cut cut cut" to social spending programs while expressing concern for sparing them from an abortion. Put another way, sure, you can care despite holding those views. But on a practical level, holding those views still, in the end, does not help.

You should come out to the suburbs some time, you'll find plenty of conservative pro-lifers out here too who are oblivious to the plight of working class people. Or how the policies they advocate harm them

That's not my position at all. Having said that, I find it hard to take the concerns of many (not all) pro-lifers seriously when they often advocate for and for candidates who continually advocate for cutting programs that would help families in these situations.

I mean, shouldn't we do a better job supporting mothers who are in that situation who don't have means? Churches and non-profits alone aren't enough to do that.

I dont get the extra 750k line or why that matters except that too often those arguing against Roe V. Wade also advocate for cuts to the social safety net.. To an extent, though not many remain, I have more respect for the D pro-life position because it cares more for the kid before and after birth.

Probably true.

It was nothing if not predictable

It would probably be easier to "Let Planned Parenthood sort it out" if they weren't constantly being threatened with losing sources of funding. As has often been the case for as long as I've been following this stuff

Its anecdotal, but some of the book banning stuff that we've seen threatened down here is pretty unpopular with some folks I know who don't necessarily share my world view. YMMV if you live in Illinois or NY

I'm increasingly of the view that the first three are less of an advantage and (in the case of CRT) the Gop may have overreached or gone a little overboard on it. And abortion ties into that... it's red meat right wing culture war stuff, and it's not clear at all to me that the median voter is all that into it. Inflation is the big one and, IMO, accounts for a lot of where the race sits right now (along with the general nature of midterms). Roe being repealed will have an impact (some of these statements coming out from GOP candidates and their campaign arm) are the biggest piece of evidence that is the case... the biggest impact may be generating interest from the D side.

Dog who caught the ambulance, Exhibit B

When I hear that, I just can imagine there's gonna be a ton of shock for a lot of women when they go to their OB appts. Maybe I'm ignorant (I am a man after all), but I don't know that everyone associates IUDs with abortion. And that form of birth control is pretty popular to my knowledge.

"This Rainout is Brought To You In Part by Toro...."

Yes!

It would be nice to think that a decrease in access to abortion and birth control could be coupled with more resources for families in order accommodate those births, but frankly, this country does a pretty terrible job of doing that with families as it is. I know that point grates like sandpaper for a lot of folks, but it doesn't make it any less true.

IUD's illegal? That's pretty extreme.

I guess my view is the kabuki aspect is irrelevant if Kav et. al did in fact misrepresent their views on the issue.

Yeah, it's seems pretty obvious whether it's through court action or through federal action, the desire for "states rights" on abortion will end the moment that this ruling comes down.