mtutiger

With Kelly, it would trigger an appointment and special election in 2026 per Arizona law. It isn't without risk, but it's not a deal breaker of one thinks that another candidate can win there next cycle. The safest picks would be Cooper, Walz or Beshear... Cooper and Beshear were both AGs when Kamala was AG from California, so they are going to be in the upper tier of people considered I would imagine

I think she has been better at that as a surrogate for Biden in this cycle fwiw

It's a dilemma that comes down to what they think the trajectory of the state goes in longer term. I'd probably take that gamble, but I can see where one of the other options seems less bad

It's likely about neutralizing any Jan 6th talk coming up the pike with swing voters. Giving a "what about" to counter with. The problem is that, if polls are to be believed, most people *wanted* this result. I've honest been surprised by their response to this news, it's the most disorganized they have been this entire campaign cycle

I think people need to open themselves to the idea that she has maybe learned a thing or two about a thing or two since 2020 as well. People are largely going off of 2020 when they judge her so negatively... In the appearances that I have seen during this campaign, she has shown a lot of growth. She had arguably been Biden's best asset as a surrogate

To use another parlance from our time, they can "cope and seethe"

It helps that they aren't a cult that's centered around one guy...

It would be a terrible look for him to duck a debate with Kamala, 100%

Part of the issue is that, because of the atmosphere in 2020, her greatest asset as a candidate (being a former prosecutor) was something she couldn't really deploy. Times have changed, for better or worse. I do think she can use her whole biography a lot easier in 2024.

It's risk reward... Kamala gets incumbency, but also has to deal with the day to day versus campaigning all day everyday. Plus needing to get a VP confirmed which isn't nothing

I don't think they expected it... It wasn't well noticed, but their campaign produced an ad before the debate (Id have to find it on YouTube) that kinda telegraphed that they weren't expecting it. My guess is they have been wargaming Harris maybe since the Stephanopoulos interview... It's a head start, but still not nothing to have to reformulate months worth of work into a different candidate

As the young kids say, Mike can "cry harder"

I mean, probably... They have all kinds of attacks they can lodge, we'll see how effective they will be. But, as Tim's piece alludes to, they expended a bunch of time and money preparing for one candidate. And now it's going to have to expend more time and money create ads (as well as the overall campaign strategy) to apply to another candidate. That's a legitimate challenge for them, it's not nothing

I mentioned Kelly in part because he's a popular Senator from an important swing state (Arizona is basically the insurance policy state for Wisconsin), but also because he's a veteran and an astronaut. It sets up a really interesting contrast with JD Vance, who will be less able to lean into his service if the Dem ticket has a vet on the ticket as well. Certainly think Buttigieg is an option on that front as well Absent them, A Midwestern/Rust Belt Governor (Walz, Shapiro or Whitmer if they would do it) or Southern Gov/former AG colleagues of Harris (Roy Cooper, Andy Beshear) make the most sense.

Tim's right on this... They likely had a bunch of stuff in the can for his nomination, now they have to start from square one. Obviously the challenges are bigger for the Dems, but this comes with some challenges for Trump's campaign too

In terms of VP, it doesn't come without challenges, but Mark Kelly would be such a great contrast with JD Vance

Continues to have zero respect for the voters

Legislatively I think he's on par or even better than Obama... I also think his term has been marked by a rebuilding of state Dem parties that were previously decimated during the wave of 2010 (some of that is Trump though). But in other ways I do agree that Obama was better. Particularly in the Head of State roles.

I think he will be out there for sure...

Not that it matters much, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets at least a modest bump in his approvals for simply doing this

I just hope the Bill Kristol types can dispense with the fantasy tickets and get behind the Veep... The fact that so many people when they speculated on this would avoid considering her probably made all of this way more tumultuous. Biden and Harris have a complicated relationship, but she's been a team player as Veep and has been likely the most effective surrogate on the campaign to-date. She's a part of his legacy, and there's zero chance he wanted her shanked in some sort of Aaron Sorkin fantasy scenario

I think it also shows him to be everything that Trump isn't... He knows the office is bigger than him. And particularly with a candidate like Trump, who he personally detests, that they need to go with the best possible option. In the end, he came to the conclusion that the best option wasn't him and acted accordingly

Well, that's that