Investing

[chasfh]

On 12/27/2025 at 1:48 PM, Screwball said:

I think it was 2012. The Tigers were in the playoffs and I had to go to a wedding. Girlfriends daughter was the MOO. 

Maid Of 'Onor?

[Screwball]

53 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maid Of 'Onor?

Yea, something like that. Her and her husband are both lawyers and I've always wondered how they got so much stupid in only two bodies. The are the poster children for people with book smarts and zero street smarts.

[Screwball]

On 12/31/2025 at 9:30 AM, chasfh said:

Maid Of 'Onor?

LOL - I just figured this out two days later.  MOO should have been MOH - Duh! Still didn't catch it the second time. This is what happens when you get old and stupid(er).

[Screwball]

On the Silver trade;

Don't really know the guy above but that caught my eye. From CNBC:

Gold, silver prices fall after CME raises precious metals margins — again

Silver get smacked around a bit this week.

[Deleterious]

I float between atheist and agnostic.  But I'm not shorting Jesus.

 

[Screwball]

LOL! The ****ing world has went bat**** crazy. Where do you get off this ride?

[oblong]

I’m getting ads for something that lets me bet on the weather.  Glad my dad wasn’t around for this one. They’d have gotten him on that I’m sure.   His trick was “watch WGN… Chicago’s weather today is ours tomorrow.  Plus they show more killings on their news. Coleman Young made them stop showing them here”

[Deleterious]

TSMC’s U.S. Expansion Crushes the Company’s Chip Margins, Shrinking Them by Nearly Eightfold Due to Higher Labor Costs & Wafer Depreciation

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

TSMC’s U.S. Expansion Crushes the Company’s Chip Margins, Shrinking Them by Nearly Eightfold Due to Higher Labor Costs & Wafer Depreciation

Numbers on the chart in this story don't seem to tell a consistent story. They do indicate that capital/wafer is roughly double in the US, which is bad enough,  but it's quite unclear how they get from 100% more capital cost to 700% more depreciation cost/wafer. Unless what they are capturing is a difference in depreciation schedules between Taiwan and the US. If true that would have been worth noting.

Edited Sunday at 01:27 AM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

I'm not posting this as political fodder for those who make it all political. This is the investment angle of what went on the other day. Good thread about the oil and looks pretty accurate best I can tell as I follow the energy space when I'm not in bonds.

 

Edited Sunday at 03:39 PM by Screwball

[Deleterious]

I wonder how long it would take to rebuild in the infrastructure in Venezuela.  You can't just turn a spigot on and the oil flows.  It could take years and billions of dollars.  

[Screwball]

I'll be watching the futures on crude at 5 when they open. Disclosure; I have a long position in crude oil. 

Couple of links of interest:

Oil Markets Brace for Supply Squeeze After U.S. Captures Nicolás Maduro - Oilprice. com

Maduro overthrow in oil-rich Venezuela unlikely to shake energy markets in the near term - Bubblevison

[gehringer_2]

the one thing to keep in mind is that refineries don't set up to run heavy crude because they prefer to, but because heavy crude traditionally sells a discount to Saudi or WTI. There is a market price at which the added cost of production for hard to process oil means that it can't be sold at a large enough discount for refiners to be interested. The other complication is that once a refiner configures a refinery for heavy crude, they will not be as efficient if they switch back. But in general, it's still easier to run light crude or a lighter net blend in a refinery configured for heavy than vice-versa.

[Screwball]

As of a few minutes ago after the futures opened, crude is what you might call, a little uneventful. It took a **** at open, but has since recovered the dip, and is trading like a penny stock. We'll see what it looks like in the morning when retail gets involved, not that I think they can move the market, but the pigmen can. Based on sentiment... No, stop! Chart porn of crude, one minute tick.

[Screwball]

Not so fast Kemosabie, as I typed that we have new action, more chart porn;

The big green candle on the right is at exactly 7:00 pm. Don't know what that means, but interesting...

 

[Deleterious]

 

[chasfh]

On 1/2/2026 at 6:42 PM, Screwball said:

LOL! The ****ing world has went bat**** crazy. Where do you get off this ride?

Some of us are going to be escorted off the ride sooner than later, whether we want it or not. 😏

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Deleterious said:

 

Nancy Pelosi is only +25% more wealthy now than a year ago? lol indeed … 😁

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Nancy Pelosi is only +25% more wealthy now than a year ago? lol indeed … 😁

You'd be up 17% on a passive buy and hold of an S&P index fund, so 25% doesn't represent that much investing navvy. If you'd just taken a flier on Intel or weighted Nvidia you could have beaten 25%

The inverse Cramer is good to see though.

Edited 14 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You'd be up 17% on a passive buy and hold of an S&P index fund, so 25% doesn't represent that much investing navvy. The inverse Cramer is good to see though.

I'll take +25% over +17% every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Some of us are going to be escorted off the ride sooner than later, whether we want it or not. 😏

Here, beat the rush;

[Deleterious]

Ford stock price is up 40% from a year ago.  GM up 53%

 

[Deleterious]

So we are getting between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela?  We use 20 million barrels a day.  What's the point.  

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

So we are getting between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela?  We use 20 million barrels a day.  What's the point.  

optics, photo-ops. Don't expect it to make sense.  It just some donors with gulf coast operations getting paid off. 

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Ford stock price is up 40% from a year ago.  GM up 53%

and the 'new' Lightening is still going to be semi electric. It sounds like it's going to have an IC powered generator that can be run either coupled or uncoupled from the drive train. It the sane way to get extended range in place of over a ton of battery. I never thought the battery size designed for the Lightening made any sense. The energy penalty for carrying all that weight around all the time when you seldom needed it makes little sense.