Investing

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Might be a good time to be long crude oil. Some reports claim the Straight of Hormuz is not getting the usual traffic, or even closed. Crude markets are closed for the weekend, but here is the chart from yesterday for reference. 3 month daily.

 

If you believe the current activity will be sustained for sure. However I'm doubtful it will be, but who knows? 

Edited Saturday at 04:44 PM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

13 hours ago, Screwball said:

This is their own doing.

I was expelled along with hundreds of others from the big multi-national due to being too old and too expensive. They wanted to go younger and cheaper. Because money. I ended up at a company that made machines for these people, and a bunch of them.

Every time the automaker, or whoever, changes a marketing gimmick - hey look - new parts. Good for them, the manufacturer, and us, the people who made their machines. Win - win.

But they all ****ed it up because they are a bunch of clueless phony back stabbing pricks that know nothing about how to run a manufacturing plant.

Update. This became official today as it hit the news. 3 plants total, all in Ohio, 1,011 total employees. Closing at the end of April. But it gets worse. They have been under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for a while. I wasn't aware of that.

The release states (this is funny); “Company leadership has indicated there has been interest in the facility and they remain optimistic about a potential path forward prior to the April 30 date,”

Of course, but then there is this you have to deal with;

Quote

The bankruptcy that led to Friday’s closures came after federal prosecutors filed what they describe as evidence of a yearslong fraud scheme at the top of XXXXX. On January 29, 2026, a federal grand jury in the Southern District of New York indicted First Brands founder and former CEO XXXX, 61, of Chagrin Falls, and his brother XXXXX, 60, of Canton, on charges including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and multiple counts of wire fraud and bank fraud. XXXXX faces an additional charge of managing a continuing financial crimes enterprise, which carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.

Quote

 

XXXXX has operated since 1955, growing from a model and pattern shop into a Tier 1/Tier 2 automotive supplier producing interior components and air and fluid management systems, according to its website. The company changed hands several times before landing in XXXXX portfolio. XXXXX purchased XXX for $271 million in 2018, then sold it to XXXXXXLLC — with XXXXX serving as guarantor — for $40 million in September 2024. First Brands filed for bankruptcy less than a year later, and XXXXX subsequently filed suit in Delaware court alleging that XXXXX LLC and XXXXX had breached the purchase agreement and withheld more than $20 million in payments, according to court records. That litigation is ongoing.

The YYYYY facility operated as part of the broader XXXXX portfolio, which also includes brands such as FRAM filters, Autolite spark plugs, and TRICO wiper blades.

The closure would affect workers across more than 50 job classifications, including press operators, production handlers, engineers, quality control staff, maintenance workers, and administrative personnel. Some of the affected workers are represented by United Auto Workers Local 2021.

 

The worker bees tell me the union wouldn't do squat. I don't know why they list maintenance workers when they seem to not do anything, and neither did management. They wouldn't do **** after the girl I know slipped on the oil and got hurt, and didn't do **** for her either. But hey, a fish stinks from the head down. 

What a crooked bunch of dicks. May they rot in a jail cell.

 

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Update. This became official today as it hit the news. 3 plants total, all in Ohio, 1,011 total employees. Closing at the end of April. But it gets worse. They have been under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for a while. I wasn't aware of that.

The release states (this is funny); “Company leadership has indicated there has been interest in the facility and they remain optimistic about a potential path forward prior to the April 30 date,”

Of course, but then there is this you have to deal with;

The worker bees tell me the union wouldn't do squat. I don't know why they list maintenance workers when they seem to not do anything, and neither did management. They wouldn't do **** after the girl I know slipped on the oil and got hurt, and didn't do **** for her either. But hey, a fish stinks from the head down. 

What a crooked bunch of dicks. May they rot in a jail cell.

 

the story is on Reuters now and the name are public.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/first-brands-nears-bankruptcy-settlement-tees-up-business-unit-sales-2026-02-27/

Sounds like there might be a chance Ford steps in to straighten it out. That would probably be the best outcome for the employees, but it's not like FoMoCo doesn't have enough problems of it's own either.

Edited Saturday at 05:51 PM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

the story is on Reuters now and the name are public.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/first-brands-nears-bankruptcy-settlement-tees-up-business-unit-sales-2026-02-27/

Sounds like there might be a chance Ford steps in to straighten it out. That would probably be the best outcome for the employees, but it's not like FoMoCo doesn't have enough problems of it's own either.

I was trying to protect the names, but it's all out there now. The people I know work for the TMD plants. They are a blow mold operations making parts for Ford. Things like windshield water bottles or anti-freeze containers. They make the part in a blow mold, then it goes to a secondary operation where they might poke a hole or cut off a neck. Those are bunches of those machines - many of which are leaking oil all over the floor. Ford was there, and saw it. Not happy. For the workers, and our town, I hope they can figure it out.

The Horizon they mention, if it is the same one I was familiar with years ago, make wheel lug nuts. We had a plant here at one time, but long gone. Probably to China.

[Screwball]

Sunday night update since the futures markets are open. I expected the price of crude to jump, which it did. But as I type this as of 7:40 for the most part has been uneventful. As shown in the chart above crude was around $67 at close on Friday. When it opened tonight at 6 it jumped to $75 and change, then went back down to around the 72ish range and has done little since. 

This is Sunday night, we don't know what's going on. If anyone Wall Street does, and the tape will tell us what happens when they decide it does. It's all about the Straight of Hormuz. Some analysts think if that is closed, crude will go to $110ish. If that happens, we will of course see that at the pump.

Crude today at open (incoming chart porn):

For perspective, crude over the last 3 months. Notice the large gap up today, but the candle going green because it has went down since open, even though up around 7 percent.

Looking at the S&P futures, the e-mini as they call it, is down, but not really a significant move, even in normal volatility on news. Looks uneventful. But it is bouncing around a resistance level.

Let's zoom out a bit and look at a 6 month chart. Like some of the chart porn up thread going back to October of last year, this shows the point of downside resistance from getting into the range created by that big sell-off back then. As a trader, this will tell us what to do next. Looks like next stop 6540 if this doesn't hold.

 

Of course, depending on what happens in our current world this can all be moot. All bets are off - or on.

Edited 5 hours ago by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

Gasoline prices have crept up about 8% so far around here. 

[Tigeraholic1]

 

[Screwball]

They are all over the place around here. From $2.20 ish to $3.20 ish depending on where you are.

These stations will get a phone call in the morning, or maybe tonight, telling them to change the price at the pump tomorrow. It's going up.

Funny, price of gas is one of the things the CPI does a poor job of reporting, as measured, and I say reporting because the numbers are in the report if you interrogate them correctly. Going with the bigger picture, the last CPI report was better due to the lower price of gas.

Depending on what happens with oil supply chains, terminals, and refineries, it could get ugly quick. To risky? They won't insure a vessel through the straight, then what, or at what price? All inflationary, directly, and indirectly. Could also be cargo.

The American people can't afford a oil war right now. It didn't turn out so good last time. Not looking it up, going on memory, but maybe July of 2008 crude hit $147 a barrel. The crash of 2008 and the S&P hitting 666 around March 2009? Many think the oil shock was the pin. I think they were right.

 

 

 

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, Screwball said:

These stations will get a phone call in the morning, or maybe tonight, telling them to change the price at the pump tomorrow.

they don't even need to get the phone call anymore, the linear programming computer at the refiner's HQ doing real time market analysis can send price changes over the net straight to the pumps.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

I suppose they can, but the girls at the one I go to still get a call. I asked them. With the technology we have today, they should know how much they pump and when, how much was delivered, and when they need more. I wonder if they still stick the tanks?

I'll bet not.

Then again, the Office Space documentary didn't really do corporate America justice.