Investing

[Screwball]

On AI and the coming IPOs.  Not familiar with this guy but found this posted on a financial I've followed for years. 

Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history

There is also a lot of talk about where all the liquidity will come from. We are talking a lot of money. 

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, Screwball said:

On AI and the coming IPOs.  Not familiar with this guy but found this posted on a financial I've followed for years. 

Breaking: bad news for three of the biggest IPOs in history

There is also a lot of talk about where all the liquidity will come from. We are talking a lot of money. 

The less people understand a technology, the easier and more likely it is to get oversold, and nobody actually understands AI, not even the people who created it.

[Screwball]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The less people understand a technology, the easier and more likely it is to get oversold, and nobody actually understands AI, not even the people who created it.

From my experience, these upcoming IPO's are about as ****ed up as I can remember. I makes my head hurt.

[Deleterious]

Isn't that why Musk did all the arm twisting to get all the rules changed?  Instead of the index funds buying SpaceX in 12-18 months like normal, they will be buying it 15 days after its listed.  At a $1.5 trillion market cap that is going to be a massive buy and will artificially prop up the price.

[Screwball]

1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

Isn't that why Musk did all the arm twisting to get all the rules changed?  Instead of the index funds buying SpaceX in 12-18 months like normal, they will be buying it 15 days after its listed.  At a $1.5 trillion market cap that is going to be a massive buy and will artificially prop up the price.

And it juices the **** out of the market - what's not to like?

They got to pump out these IPO's before the commodity inventories and supply chains beat us with a board. There is nothing good in our underlying economy. The numbers (if you look past the headlines) are not good. 

And guess who will hold the bag. Watch your 401k holdings.

Add in the inflation due to energy and everything is in place for a problem. Watched it before. 2007/2008. Started with $147 dollar crude (July) to the impending crash. 

I know I'm a broken record that hasn't been right yet, but this is the biggest bubble they have ever blown. All we need is a pin. Maybe a rocket?

[Screwball]

18 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Isn't that why Musk did all the arm twisting to get all the rules changed?  Instead of the index funds buying SpaceX in 12-18 months like normal, they will be buying it 15 days after its listed.  At a $1.5 trillion market cap that is going to be a massive buy and will artificially prop up the price.

A good example of how crooked and ****ed up our "market's" have become. This is no longer about price discovery by all, it's about forcing people into the meat grinder ran by the pigmen of Wall Street to separate them and their money (via their funds).

Greed is good. Great movie by the way.

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Screwball said:

And it juices the **** out of the market - what's not to like?

They got to pump out these IPO's before the commodity inventories and supply chains beat us with a board. There is nothing good in our underlying economy. The numbers (if you look past the headlines) are not good. 

And guess who will hold the bag. Watch your 401k holdings.

Add in the inflation due to energy and everything is in place for a problem. Watched it before. 2007/2008. Started with $147 dollar crude (July) to the impending crash. 

I know I'm a broken record that hasn't been right yet, but this is the biggest bubble they have ever blown. All we need is a pin. Maybe a rocket?

So who is going to be the Lehman Bros in this story? Meta or Google et al aren't fragile enough to go under because they start losing money on their AI investments. Antropic/Open AI didn't exist a few years ago they aren't all that tied into the general economy like an ivestment bank but if they crash they will take down a lot of  investors. Someone/somethings going to be the pivot.

Edited yesterday at 02:30 AM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

So who is going to be the Lehman Bros in this story? Meta or Google et al aren't fragile enough to go under because they start losing money on their AI investments. Antropic/Open AI didn't exist a few years ago they aren't all that tied into the general economy like an ivestment bank but if they crash they will take down a lot of  investors. Someone/somethings going to be the pivot.

Oracle.

It probably won't totally disappear like Lehman did.  But if things go south for AI Oracle will look like a very different company, possibly even bought by someone else.

They have taken on over $35 billion in debt in this FY alone.  They are up over $100 billion total now.  They have pretty hitched their wagon to OpenAI by providing them with cloud service.  If OpenAI goes belly up, things will get very interesting for Oracle.  

[Screwball]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

So who is going to be the Lehman Bros in this story? Meta or Google et al aren't fragile enough to go under because they start losing money on their AI investments. Antropic/Open AI didn't exist a few years ago they aren't all that tied into the general economy like an ivestment bank but if they crash they will take down a lot of  investors. Someone/somethings going to be the pivot.

I don't know how it will shake out this time. It might look totally different, but the old saying applies; history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Given the massive amount of money we are talking about, someone's balance sheets will suffer. Why not make it banks so they get bailed out again? They are the lead underwriters in this massive bubble but have no money. How much leverage?

Read this today from a Toledo News channel;

$10B data center campus planned for Van Wert, bringing an anticipated 1,500 construction jobs

FTA:

Quote

 

VAN WERT, Ohio — QTS Data Centers and the city of Van Wert announced plans Friday for a new data center campus expected to bring approximately $10 billion in capital investment to northwest Ohio.

According to the company and city officials, the project is projected to generate $200 million in tax revenue over the next 20 years, create more than 1,500 construction jobs over the five- to six-year building phase and add approximately 200 full-time QTS positions.

 

In the end, 200 full time jobs. Then there is this;

Quote

 

Energy infrastructure improvements required for the campus will be funded by QTS, according to the company. QTS said it will work with American Electric Power to support the project's energy needs and that the improvements will not increase costs for existing utility customers.

The company also said the campus will use a closed-loop cooling system that does not consume water for cooling once operational. QTS said the approach is intended to reduce water usage compared with traditional data center cooling systems.

 

To the bold; we'll see about that. 

While the quest to build data centers on every corner it seems, which consume massive amounts of energy (and water), we have a wee little energy problem as well.

And from Exxon CEO;

We're about to make 1970s-style energy shortages great again. Few understand the history, but it wasn't the OPEC oil embargoes that created the infamous gas lines in the 1970s. The real cause was the price controls implemented by the federal government. The artificially suppressed price led to excess consumption relative to supply, which ultimately gave rise to physical shortages. Today, we're repeating the same mistakes, albeit with a different mechanism. The coordinated market manipulation of SPR releases + Axios fake "deal" news headlines have artificially surpressed prices below the demand-destroying levels needed to ration supply. In the absence of this natural market functioning that balances demand with increasingly thin supplies, we'll eventually hit tank bottoms across a whole range of energy products, with the same end result of economy-crippling supply shortages. Bottom line: the inability of the Trump administration to tolerate higher prices today means supply shortages are all but guaranteed tomorrow.

****

It's not only oil, but other distillates, fertilizer, and anything else that moves through the SOH.

****

I asked AI about the IPOs and what changes were made and by whom;

Quote

 

============================================================ 1. SPACEX — IPO CHANGES & KEY PEOPLE ============================================================

Major Structural / Corporate Changes

• Public S‑1 filed May 20, 2026.

• Merger with xAI completed February 2026; SpaceX now includes Starlink, SpaceXAI (formerly xAI), Colossus GPU data center, and orbital data center partnership with Google.

• Absorbed X Holdings (social media platform X) into SpaceX in March 2026.

• Implemented dual‑class share structure giving insiders super‑voting control. Musk controls ~79% of votes with ~42% equity.

• Conducted a 5‑for‑1 stock split effective May 4, 2026.

• Financial statements recast to include xAI and X Holdings.

• AI division now consumes ~60% of capital spending; ~$20B in 2025.

• Legal costs from absorbing Musk’s companies expected to reach $530M.

IPO Timing & Valuation Changes

• Targeting June 2026 Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX.

• Valuation target: $1.75–$2 trillion depending on source.

• Expected raise: up to $75B, potentially the largest IPO in history.

• Retail allocation unusually high at 30%.

Key People Responsible / Involved

• Elon Musk — CEO, CTO, Chairman; architect of xAI merger; retains majority voting control.

• Gwynne Shotwell — President & COO; oversees operations, legal, finance, sales; owns 12.6M shares.

• Bret Johnsen — CFO; leads financial prep for IPO; owns 9.6M shares.

• Board / Major Insiders:

  • Luke Nosek (PayPal co‑founder) — ~$5B stake.

  • Antonio Gracias (Valor Equity Partners) — controls 503M shares.

  • Steve Jurvetson (Future Ventures).

  • Donald Harrison (Google).

  • Ira Ehrenpreis (Tesla board member).

  • Randy Glein (DFJ Growth).

Underwriters

• Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan.

============================================================ 2. OPENAI — IPO CHANGES & KEY PEOPLE ============================================================

Major Structural / Corporate Changes

• Filing confidential S‑1 around May 22, 2026.

• Launched $4B Deployment Company for enterprise AI revenue.

• Expanded product ecosystem: GPT‑5.5 family, Codex cloud agent, API expansion.

• Raised $40B from SoftBank in early 2026, reducing capital pressure.

IPO Timing & Valuation Changes

• Targeting September 2026 listing.

• Expected valuation: $852B–$1T.

Key People Responsible / Involved (Note: Search results did not list individuals by name beyond SoftBank involvement.)

• SoftBank — major investor providing $40B pre‑IPO capital.

• OpenAI leadership (not named in search results) is responsible for filing and product expansion.

============================================================ 3. ANTHROPIC — IPO CHANGES & KEY PEOPLE ============================================================

Major Structural / Corporate Changes

• Targeting October 2026 IPO.

• Introduced Mythos cybersecurity AI, identifying tens of thousands of vulnerabilities.

• Achieved first quarterly operating profit (expected pre‑IPO).

• Revenue growth outpacing OpenAI; lower infrastructure burden due to smaller user base.

IPO Timing & Valuation Changes

• Target valuation: ~$900B.

• Strategy: list after SpaceX and OpenAI to leverage market benchmarks.

Key People Responsible / Involved

• Search results did not list individual executives by name.

• Company positioning and profitability strategy attributed to Anthropic leadership.

============================================================ COPY/PASTE BLOCK (PLAIN TEXT) ============================================================

 

So we are going to IPO 3 large AI companies in the face of an energy crunch. What can possibly go wrong?

Edited yesterday at 02:50 PM by Screwball

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

Are tweets not rendering for everyone else or is that just me?

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Are tweets not rendering for everyone else or is that just me?

just you? - in fact "Bianco" rendered twice

Edited 5 hours ago by gehringer_2

[romad1]

On 5/30/2026 at 2:20 AM, Deleterious said:

Oracle.

It probably won't totally disappear like Lehman did.  But if things go south for AI Oracle will look like a very different company, possibly even bought by someone else.

They have taken on over $35 billion in debt in this FY alone.  They are up over $100 billion total now.  They have pretty hitched their wagon to OpenAI by providing them with cloud service.  If OpenAI goes belly up, things will get very interesting for Oracle.  

This is the Bryce Young-to-Michigan, CBS-and-Paramount-into-the-toilet Ellisons.  They are throwing around that bag for reasons.

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Are tweets not rendering for everyone else or is that just me?

I'm getting a bad link to both above, but I'm not sure why. For some reason I'm not seeing tweets in Firefox anymore for some reason.

[Screwball]

$9 Trillion Collapse Machine - About the AI stuff.

[Deleterious]

Just now, Screwball said:

I'm getting a bad link to both above, but I'm not sure why. For some reason I'm not seeing tweets in Firefox anymore for some reason.

I'm also using Firefox.  Just checked using Chrome and they render fine.  So it must be a Firefox issue.  

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I'm also using Firefox.  Just checked using Chrome and they render fine.  So it must be a Firefox issue.  

I'm seeing them on Firefox in Linux.

[Deleterious]

It was an addon I use called Privacy Badger.  It was blocking twitter.com.  Once I allowed it they started to render again.

I used Claude to troubleshoot it.  Worked well.  

[Deleterious]

I have to say, AI really shines when it comes to troubleshooting.  

When they installed our fiber a few months ago I bought a new router.  It completely broke both of the Debian servers I run.  Sat down with Claude and started pasting error messages, and it was fixed in an hour or two.  It rewrote entire config files and everything.  

I'm sure I would have eventually fixed it using Google.  But it would have taken a lot longer and the frustration levels would have been higher.  

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I have to say, AI really shines when it comes to troubleshooting.  

When they installed our fiber a few months ago I bought a new router.  It completely broke both of the Debian servers I run.  Sat down with Claude and started pasting error messages, and it was fixed in an hour or two.  It rewrote entire config files and everything.  

I'm sure I would have eventually fixed it using Google.  But it would have taken a lot longer and the frustration levels would have been higher.  

and the near trillion dollar question for the AI industry is: how much are you willing to pay for the difference in your trouble and does is come close to the actual cost of serving up Claude?

[Deleterious]

Good for them.  We need more people willing to do stuff like this.

A Danish pension fund has blacklisted SpaceX, calling it grossly overvalued with catastrophic governance

Quote

Denmark’s AkademikerPension, which manages roughly $25 billion for academic professionals, has said it will not participate in SpaceX’s initial public offering or buy shares in any secondary-market transaction, according to Bloomberg. Chief investment officer Anders Schelde called the company “grossly overvalued” and cited what he described as a “catastrophic governance structure” as the primary reason for the exclusion.

The fund calculates that SpaceX cannot reasonably exceed a valuation of $1 trillion, roughly half the $1.8 trillion the company is targeting when marketing begins as soon as 4 June. Pricing could come as early as 11 June. AkademikerPension will also avoid indexed equity products that include SpaceX, meaning it is not simply skipping the IPO but actively excluding the stock from its entire portfolio.