Investing

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Chart porn from the beginning of the year. INTC went vertical in March it looks like. Have no clue why.

 There is a HUGE gap that will eventually fill. Giddy up!

Not the only reason, but data centers are starting to use more and more CPU's.  Intel does CPU's very well and their Xeon server CPU are in big demand.

The CHIPS act helped and encouraged domestic companies like Apple, Tesla, and Google to do business with Intel.  

Their CEO has reportedly implemented some nice cost-cutting measures.  

 

[Deleterious]

12 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Just for fun.

Youtube video. Trailer for a documentary made in 2009 about the floor traders in Chicago. Also how the computers replaced them. Our markets at one time traded in fractions. Chicago and NY had the big trading floors. Hand signals to buy and sell back in the day. Wild stuff.

Once the computers took over... Great book by Michael Lewis of Moneyball fame. Flashboys - link to AMZN.

Flashboys - AMZN

All about how the tech and computers found more advantages to skim money. Probably back when the movie Wall Street came out (87, looked it up) they were trading in fractions and on the floor using hand signals. Flashboys came out in 2014ish. He documents the incredible progress of the tech.

And that was a long time ago...

 

Robert Downy Jr. probably said it best.

 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Screwball said:

Chart porn from the beginning of the year. INTC went vertical in March it looks like. Have no clue why.

 There is a HUGE gap that will eventually fill. Giddy up!

wasn't it about then (March) when news about 3rd party bookings for 1.8nm chip fab started to show up? Also Del's observation that CPUs are suddenly back in vogue.

Edited yesterday at 02:48 AM by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

wasn't it about then (March) when news about 3rd party bookings for 1.8nm chip fab started to show up? Also Del's observation that CPUs are suddenly back in vogue.

Yeah.  The Tesla deal was early April.  Maybe smaller deals came first, but that was the big one.  

[Screwball]

12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Not the only reason, but data centers are starting to use more and more CPU's.  Intel does CPU's very well and their Xeon server CPU are in big demand.

The CHIPS act helped and encouraged domestic companies like Apple, Tesla, and Google to do business with Intel.  

Their CEO has reportedly implemented some nice cost-cutting measures.  

 

Makes sense.

[Screwball]

12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Robert Downy Jr. probably said it best.

 

In that documentary they talked about a rule that if you hit someone on the trading floor you were fined like 300 bucks. A guy knocked someone on their ass, threw 300 dollars on his chest and said when he gets up I'm going to hit him again. A wild breed for sure.

[Deleterious]

53 minutes ago, Screwball said:

In that documentary they talked about a rule that if you hit someone on the trading floor you were fined like 300 bucks. A guy knocked someone on their ass, threw 300 dollars on his chest and said when he gets up I'm going to hit him again. A wild breed for sure.

I would have owed money on payday back when I worked.  

[Screwball]

Here is the complete documentary minus the outtakes (which were great) Youtube (runtime 1:17 minutes);

Floored

Edited yesterday at 04:14 PM by Screwball

[Deleterious]

 

[gehringer_2]

the top chart is the real one. Oil has come down a little though.

[Screwball]

NASDAQ - high at 9:49 then...as the heat map above shows;

[Deleterious]

I asked Claude to go over the SpaceX S-1.

So $750 billion valuation on the high end.  555.6 million shares offered.  So $57 a share is the price Claude is putting it at?  

Quote

Bottom line: SpaceX is arguably the most unusual IPO in history — part infrastructure monopoly, part AI compute arms dealer, part moonshot portfolio. Starlink alone justifies a valuation north of $300B on a DCF basis. The AI segment is a massive wildcard: the Anthropic compute contract ($1.25B/month) is real, recurring revenue that validates the compute infrastructure thesis, but the segment is consuming capital at a rate that dwarfs its current revenues. The dual-class governance and Musk key-man risk are serious structural concerns for institutional buyers. A fair value range of $500B–$750B enterprise value seems defensible on observable assets; anything above that is pricing in Starship success, orbital AI compute, and multi-decade optionality. Expect the IPO to price toward the high end of that range given the institutional appetite for the story. Not a value stock — this is a long-duration, high-conviction bet on Musk executing across all three segments simultaneously.

Here's the full breakdown. A few things worth calling out that don't fit neatly in the table:

What makes this filing genuinely unusual is that SpaceX isn't just one company going public — it's effectively three companies bundled together after acquiring xAI (and with it, X/Twitter) in the months before filing. The financials have been retroactively recast to include all three entities as if they were always combined, which makes year-over-year comparisons a bit tricky to interpret.

The Anthropic contract is the sleeper detail. SpaceX disclosed that Anthropic (my creator, worth noting) signed a compute services deal paying $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. That's $15B in committed revenue from a single customer just for GPU cluster access. It validates the AI compute infrastructure thesis immediately and gives the segment a revenue floor that's hard to ignore.

The governance risk is real and underappreciated. Class B shares give 10 votes each and Musk will hold a controlling majority. Crucially, Class B shareholders elect a majority of the board as a class right — meaning even if Musk's overall economic ownership dilutes over time, he retains board control as long as any Class B shares exist. Public investors are buying a participation certificate in whatever Musk decides to do, not a governance stake.

On valuation: the S-1 leaves the IPO price blank (it's still preliminary), so we don't yet know the offering price or share count. Pre-IPO secondary trades have implied roughly $350–$400B, but tech IPOs with this much narrative momentum often price significantly above private market comps. The $500–$750B range I built from segment fundamentals is where I'd anchor fair value; the market may go well above that at open.

Happy to go deeper on any segment, the AI competitive positioning, or the Starship execution risk specifically.

 

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

Inflation up another half point to 4.2%.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I asked Claude to go over the SpaceX S-1.

So $750 billion valuation on the high end.  555.6 million shares offered.  So $57 a share is the price Claude is putting it at?  

 

Elon released a statement about the orbital data centers. They were based on 175kW supply power (ground based data centers run up to 50MW). That's so little compute power/cost a medium size business could just put the equivalent in a shed behind the building and have it in house. Maybe he's counting on an order of magnitude reduction in energy/compute, which is certainly possible, but it still a few years away at best. And OTOH, if we get another order of magnitude reduction in energy/compute, will anyone need centralized data centers? The tension between local and centralized compute will always be there in it tech.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[romad1]

26 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Elon released a statement about the orbital data centers. They were based on 175kW supply power (ground based data centers run up to 50MW). That's so little compute power/cost a medium size business could just put the equivalent in a shed behind the building and have it in house. Maybe he's counting on an order of magnitude reduction in energy/compute, which is certainly possible, but it still a few years away at best. And OTOH, if we get another order of magnitude reduction in energy/compute, will anyone need centralized data centers? The tension between local and centralized compute will always be there in it tech.

WALL-E levels of space junk are coming.