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Red Wings Playoff Tracker 2024


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2 hours ago, GoBlue23 said:

Devils lose

Capitals lose

Islanders gonna lose - Go Kings!!!

Isles did indeed lose. A good night. So the Wings are back in playoff positions by the narrowest of measures - the RegulationOvertimeWins tiebreaker over NYI. Both have 72 points with 18 games to go. Philly and Tampa have 74 points with 17 games to go. Washington has 69 points with 19 games to go. 

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Posted (edited)

So Wings are 1 up on Washington but the Caps still have a game in hand. Wings own tiebreaker with more ROWs. That’s about as much of a dead heat as can possibly be. 

Wings have 76 points with 26 remaining points (13 games) available. Will it take 17-18 points?

 

Edited by lordstanley
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23 hours ago, lordstanley said:

So Wings are 1 up on Washington but the Caps still have a game in hand. Wings own tiebreaker with more ROWs.
 

Correction: 1st tiebreaker is regulation wins. That's actually more fair, in my view, but works to the Wings' disadvantage. The Wings have more ROWs than most of the playoff bubble teams but fewer RWs than some. 

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Posted (edited)

When you have bubble teams that have played at or slightly point per game pace, most are going to pick up 8-12 points every 10 games. We barely have more than 10 games left in the season. See the Strk column to the far right  


So time is really running out for Pitt, Buffalo and even Jersey. I don’t think any of them will reach 90 points, which to me is the bare minimum to even be in the conservation. I think the 8th place team will finish with 93 points, give or take a point or two.

- Buffalo at 71 points with 11 games to go would top out at 93 points if they win all 11, but even highly improbable 9-2 would only get them to 89

- Jersey at 72 points could top out at 96 if they won all 12 remaining, but even unlikely 8–3-1 would only get them to 89
- Pitt at 69 points could top out at 97 if they won all 14 remaining, but even a highly improbable 10-4 would only get them to 89

I also think Tampa is all but safe. To me, at this point it is 2 spots for Philly, Detroit, Washington, NYI. 
 

IMG_3356.jpeg

Edited by lordstanley
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1 hour ago, lordstanley said:

Islanders outshooting Winnipeg 27-4. That may be as lopsided of a shots ratio that I can remember. Isles up 5-1. No help there. 

and philly beat boston.

think about that when we were getting blown out by arizona and buffalo.

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Posted (edited)

So with Tampa now pretty much locked in (they are closer to reeling in the Leafs than blowing a playoff spot), the two spots left are Metro #3 and Wildcard #2.  The opponent of Wildcard #2 would be whichever one of these four teams finishes highest:

- NYR, 98 pts, 11 games remaining (38 regulation wins) 

- Florida, 97 pts, 11 games remaining (38 regulation wins) 

- Carolina, 97 pts, 10 games remaining (37 regulation wins)

- Boston, 97 pts, 10 games remaining (32 regulation wins)

The President's Trophy is among those four teams plus Vancouver (98 pts, 11 games remaining, 39 regulation wins) and Colorado 97 pts, 11 games remaining, 38 regulation wins) and Dallas (97 points, 10 games remaining, 38 regulation wins).

Interesting that there is only 1 point separating the top 7 teams, but 23 points separating the bottom 5 teams.

Edited by lordstanley
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4 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Wings have to win tonight.     This is it.   

I don’t know what the odds sites say, but I would say that with a regulation win tonight I’d give the Wings a 45% chance of making the playoffs. 20% with a regulation loss. 

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On 3/28/2024 at 12:43 PM, Hongbit said:

The East has been viewed as the harder conference to make the playoffs in recent years.  The Wings would be 7 points out of the last spot if they were still in the West.   

Yes, it's been something of a turtle race in the East. Of Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit, NYI, NJ, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, only Washington (with 12 pts) is playing than a point per game pace the past 10 games.  Philly is 3-5-2. NYI and Detroit are 3-6-1. Buffalo and Jersey are 5-5. Pittsburgh is 4-4-2.  

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8 games to go and I think they are going to make it in.  

The big ones are Caps at LCA and a home and home with the Habs to end the season.   They need minimum 5 points from those and probably all 6 to be safe.    I think both Philly and Washington are going to feel the pressure and won’t finish strong.  

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