2025 NCAA Football Thread

[buddha]

3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Thats the case at the moment. They will if they can profit much more than the expense and have total control over their player development. 

It would take less than 5 years for college football to essentially die if the NFL were to start a developmental Saturday league for the top 18-22 year olds that had no affiliation with college.   High end High school football would quickly pass it in interest too.  

like the g league has surpassed college basketball in interest?

i dont think so.  the drae is the college and the history of college football and people's ties to the university.

minor league football isnt going to surpass college football.  ask the ufl.

[Hongbit]

14 minutes ago, buddha said:

like the g league has surpassed college basketball in interest?

i dont think so.  the drae is the college and the history of college football and people's ties to the university.

minor league football isnt going to surpass college football.  ask the ufl.

The NBA G league or UFL are not close comparisons.   They aren’t taking all the top talent.  There really isn’t any comparison as it hasn’t been done before. 

I’m taking about the NFL starting a league that would essentially replace college football.  All the best players would go to it and college football would be what ended up looking like G league or UFL.  

I also think that alums underestimate how many non alums are huge fans and season ticket holders especially at the big state schools.   They would quickly switch their allegiance. 

[gehringer_2]

the ten schools from the original B10 could still sell 60-100k tickets to games even if they all dropped back to Div2 and became amateur again. The tickets would be cheap and games would not be televised and none of the players would be on their way to the NFL, but there would still be plenty of fans.

[buddha]

23 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The NBA G league or UFL are not close comparisons.   They aren’t taking all the top talent.  There really isn’t any comparison as it hasn’t been done before. 

I’m taking about the NFL starting a league that would essentially replace college football.  All the best players would go to it and college football would be what ended up looking like G league or UFL.  

I also think that alums underestimate how many non alums are huge fans and season ticket holders especially at the big state schools.   They would quickly switch their allegiance. 

when the g league started there was a lot of angst about it taking the top talent because it could pay money and college basketball (wink) couldnt.  and it did get some high profile players, especially in the beginning (and even lately with amen and ausar).

but even with young high school talent, no one watches.  they watch the ncaa tournament because its college sports and tradition.  it would be the same with football.  just like minor league baseball.  no one cares but die hards.

i dont understand why the nfl would pay money to create a developmental system that it now gets for free and ads a TON of interest in its overall product (the nfl draft is one of the biggest events in its calendar).  i also dont see why this new minor league football system would generate the kind of interest that minor league systems in other sports do not.

and i dont know if youve heard but colleges can now pay!  real money!  the nfl isnt going to outbid them for talent to play in a minor league system, the owners like their money too much.

[Hongbit]

What’s better than getting something for free?  

Owning something that will make billions. 

You make it sound like college football has it all figured out.  They are going to **** this thing up worse than ever.   It’s not going to happen right away but there will be a time when the NFL will have an option.  

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, buddha said:

dont understand why the nfl would pay money to create a developmental system that it now gets for free a

that's why I think the future of eligibility rules is an area with potential to get interesting. Extended eligibility would be one thing that could happen that the NFL wouldn't like. We're  speculating way beyond multiple corners we can't see around, but it's still easy enough to imagine at least some scenarios where extended eligibility could dry up the number of guys willing to go the NFL in the later rounds of the draft where it's minimum money being paid. Parallel to the way kids turn down late round MLB offers if they can get a scholarship to college. 

Could such a thing ever rise to a level the NFL felt it had to respond to? Beats me!

Edited Wednesday at 03:46 AM by gehringer_2

[buddha]

31 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

What’s better than getting something for free?  

Owning something that will make billions. 

You make it sound like college football has it all figured out.  They are going to **** this thing up worse than ever.   It’s not going to happen right away but there will be a time when the NFL will have an option.  

i do not make it sound like that at all.

no minor league system makes any money other than college football.  why?  because its tied to the universities that people have an affiliation with and it has 100+ years of tradition.

people arent going to watch high school kids play for the detroit panthers against the columbus cougars (maybe in texas...).  they will watch the michigan wolverines play the ohio state buckeyes.  without the universities involvement, no one will care.

[MichiganCardinal]

4 hours ago, buddha said:

i do not make it sound like that at all.

no minor league system makes any money other than college football.  why?  because its tied to the universities that people have an affiliation with and it has 100+ years of tradition.

people arent going to watch high school kids play for the detroit panthers against the columbus cougars (maybe in texas...).  they will watch the michigan wolverines play the ohio state buckeyes.  without the universities involvement, no one will care.

Maybe 30 years ago this was true, and still today regarding your MAC and CUSA schools, but I think it’s probably fair to say that Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and most of the schools who are driving the new era of college football have more fans supporting them with eyes and money who have no real purely institutional connection. Today, kids just grew up in Royal Oak, Upper Arlington, or with a grandpa who went to Notre Dame, and chose a team based on that and them being consistently competitive, even if they end up going to Grand Valley, Toledo, Trine, or nowhere at all.

I think the real barrier to the NFL ever actually taking over college football comes in infrastructure, politics, and purpose. The NFL is not going to want to bear the startup cost of a new league, be it stadiums, salaries, or just general upkeep. They’ve got a good thing going with the NCAA to NFL pipeline and I doubt they’re keen to rock the boat too much.

If the NFL did want to chip away at the college football foothold (and they might in the next 5-10 years), I could see them taking a more MLB-like approach to recruitment, expanding both the draft and roster size while reducing or removing the eligibility requirements, to accommodate NFL team that wants to select players right out of, or shortly out of, high school. And then those kids would have the option of either accepting something of a “futures” deal with an NFL team, or going to college. I can’t imagine the list would be long of kids who NFL teams are willing to take at 18/19 years old, but it would give them the option of stealing a Bryce Underwood or Archie Manning from the college game.

I just don’t think the NFL has any intention of reinventing the wheel, when they’ve already got the greatest money-making league in American history and no signs of slowing.

[Hongbit]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

 

I think the real barrier to the NFL ever actually taking over college football comes in infrastructure, politics, and purpose. The NFL is not going to want to bear the startup cost of a new league, be it stadiums, salaries, or just general upkeep. They’ve got a good thing going with the NCAA to NFL pipeline and I doubt they’re keen to rock the boat too much.

 

My thoughts center around the possibility that this dramatic shift in college football will change it to the point that it no longer becomes a good thing for the NFL.  

As college football becomes more like a professional entity, what happens if the NFL sees it more as a competitor than a partner.   They tend to crush any competition.    The idea of owning viewers on Saturdays too could be huge.  We’ve seen what Amazon will pay for Thursday’s and holidays.  What do you think they would do for 2 marquee Saturday games at 3:30 and 8:00?    

We will see how it plays out over the next few years but I also can’t see NFL liking every 5 star QB is making as much as the 6th pick in the NFL draft.   Even more extreme, how about when a 4 star DL from Saginaw gets paid the same amount as pick 26.   They really aren’t going to like when the senior QB with a first round grade decides to stay in college for more money instead of coming to the NFL.  The players union will hate it too and will definitely want to start getting more of the pie and could even strike for it.    What better argument they aren’t paid enough than high school grads getting paid more than pros.

We can compare to other pro sports but the reality is the NFL operates on another level.  It’s like little league vs. high school when comparing them with other sports.  Everything they touch gains viewers and makes money.  They have very few missteps.

I am not saying any of these things will happen but there is a dramatic change happening with college football.   It’s not out of the question that the NFL chooses to step in and take control over their own player development and open a new revenue stream that makes billions of dollars at the same time.

Edited Wednesday at 01:01 PM by Hongbit

[RedTeamGo!]

All the side stuff aside, kinda nice UM and OSU won back to back titles shortly before the sport as we know it comes crashing down. 

[gehringer_2]

UM Regents approved a $266M budget for the athletic department, which includes $15M in subsidy from the U. The mothership is picking up most of the $21M cost of the House settlement for the first yr. (The AD normally gets no operating $ from the general budget)

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

UM Regents approved a $266M budget for the athletic department, which includes $15M in subsidy from the U. The mothership is picking up most of the $21M cost of the House settlement for the first yr. (The AD normally gets no operating $ from the general budget)

For reference, the University Budget is ~$15B, a little more than half of that is the Hospital System.

Edited Friday at 12:22 PM by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

I don't think the risk to risk to the relationship between the NFL and College football lies in the NFL trying to get a bigger piece. I think there are two outcomes that could threaten things, and I have no idea if either of them will happen to any significant degree.

The first is the one I've already mentioned, the possibility that eligibility rules change to where enough of what would be mid-level NFL players decide they can make a career without going to the NFL and that both bleeds off and blocks enough of the talent pipeline that the NFL gets concerned.

The second is that as the super conferences emerge they end up monopolizing the media money. I think this has a high probability of happening. But the consequence of that could mean that the 2nd tier of what is now Div1 finds themselves in an untenable financial situation and they decide to drop out of the paid Varsity Sport system. That won't bother the super-conferences, but it will reduce the ratio between the number of paid tier college programs and the number of NFL teams. As above, this outcome would effectively reduce the size of the development pool for the NFL. Could it be enough the NFL would care? Who knows? I think in the end, for a school to survive it will either  have to have a deep national tradition or big local media market it can have to itself. I don't know how many of those there are but I think the number is less than the current number FCS schools. Or the other way to look at it is that schools that are currently 'recievers' from their conferences instead of generators, will end up at risk as the other schools are going to want them out of their revenue stream.

[Hongbit]

35 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't think the risk to risk to the relationship between the NFL and College football lies in the NFL trying to get a bigger piece. I think there are two outcomes that could threaten things, and I have no idea if either of them will happen to any significant degree.

 

I think just the opposite.  The NFL has shown they always want a bigger piece when they can get it.   If there’s a new revenue stream to be tapped, they tap it.  

Franchise Expansion (that’s coming again soon),  moving games to foreign countries,  scheduling games on Thursday’s and holidays,  turning the draft into its own profitable event,   Expanding the regular season and playoffs.  The list goes on.

College football hasn’t been something they have wanted to challenge in the past.  If that relationship changes in this new era, it creates a huge opportunity for them to make many billions of dollars more.  

Edited Friday at 01:22 PM by Hongbit

[buddha]

4 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I think just the opposite.  The NFL has shown they always want a bigger piece when they can get it.   If there’s a new revenue stream to be tapped, they tap it.  

Franchise Expansion (that’s coming again soon),  moving games to foreign countries,  scheduling games on Thursday’s and holidays,  turning the draft into its own profitable event,   Expanding the regular season and playoffs.  The list goes on.

College football hasn’t been something they have wanted to challenge in the past.  If that relationship changes in this new era, it creates a huge opportunity for them to make many billions of dollars more.  

they dont challenge it because it provides them with free labor training and increases the popularity of the nfl product.

its not a competitor.

will that change when it TRULY becomes a paid league?  we'll find out.  

you talk about the nfl devouring and taking over college football like its just an absolute win for the nfl.  its not.  there's a lot of risk involved and taking on a lot of cost.  and there will be complications and other competitors.

more likely to me would be private equity moving to create its own competition.  overall, i see interest in college football lessening the more it moves away from the current "student-athlete" model, as much of a fiction as we know that model actually is. but that could just be because im old and i liked the old system.

but i do think people dont care about minor league sports and they wont care about minor league football either.  i firmly believe that and i think its likely the nfl does too.

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, buddha said:

but i do think people dont care about minor league sports and they wont care about minor league football either.  i firmly believe that and i think its likely the nfl does too.

this. As I think about it, the biggest threat to the status quo as we know it is not probably not the NFL, it comes if the super conference schools get greedy and want to maximize their revenue by cutting out the rest of the schools, or whether they decide they will live with less revenue for the sake of keeping more schools in the system.                                                                                                                      

Edited Friday at 06:45 PM by gehringer_2

[Hongbit]

Do most of these NFL owners seem like the cautious, risk adverse business people that value the process of creating wealth?  

Maybe a few but most are now the 2nd generation that inherited their teams.  They grew up as billionaires kids that never actually had to go out and make the money.  It was always just there for them.  

These are some of America’s wealthiest families. I don’t think many understand and therefore don’t care about risk and cost expenditures.  They never had to their entire life and why would they now they are banded together as billionaire NFL club.  

[Hongbit]

18 minutes ago, buddha said:

 

but i do think people dont care about minor league sports and they wont care about minor league football either.  i firmly believe that and i think its likely the nfl does too.

I agree that people don’t care about minor league sports.  

They care deeply about college football.  

They care even deeper about NFL football.  

So, if college football were to be replaced with an NFL minor league, people would care a whole bunch.

I’m not taking about an NBA G-League model that lures a few top names and mixes them in with a majority of fringe NBA players.  I’m talking about a model where all the top college aged players trying to be NFL players would go.  

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

I agree that people don’t care about minor league sports.  

They care deeply about college football.  

They care even deeper about NFL football.  

So, if college football were to be replaced with an NFL minor league, people would care a whole bunch.

I’m not taking about an NBA G-League model that lures a few top names and mixes them in with a majority of fringe NBA players.  I’m talking about a model where all the top college aged players trying to be NFL players would go.  

i disagree.  i think the tie to the college and the history makes it popular.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Do most of these NFL owners seem like the cautious, risk adverse business people that value the process of creating wealth?  

Maybe a few but most are now the 2nd generation that inherited their teams.  They grew up as billionaires kids that never actually had to go out and make the money.  It was always just there for them.  

These are some of America’s wealthiest families. I don’t think many understand and therefore don’t care about risk and cost expenditures.  They never had to their entire life and why would they now they are banded together as billionaire NFL club.  

that's why they wont do anything.  theyre rent seekers, not risk takers.

the risk takers are the private equity funds salivating to make the sec and big ten break off and form their own, pe money fueled competition.  not nfl owners.

[Hongbit]

15 hours ago, buddha said:

that's why they wont do anything.  theyre rent seekers, not risk takers.

the risk takers are the private equity funds salivating to make the sec and big ten break off and form their own, pe money fueled competition.  not nfl owners.

Private Equity is always looking for a well timed, profitable exit.  Normally thats done by either going public, selling it outright, or gutting it for assets.    Not sure what the exit is from a college football team.   It makes sense if it’s a billionaire looking to pump up his alma mater and funneling the money through his business.  

[gehringer_2]

not sure what the angle for private equity is though - the 20-30 top programs are not capital limited at this point  - they've already found the money to enlarge their stadiums and upgrade their facilities. The 2nd tier could probably use the capital, but is there enough potential for those schools to generate income to be interesting investments? So much keeps coming back to how the league structure finally shakes out. How many teams will top tier college football end up with?