2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

So, it seems like the Tigers may be following the Tampa Rays model as some of us suspected all along.  It has worked out reasonably well for Tampa but that kind of constant roster turnover is not appealing to me.  I guess it will be somewhat like following a college team which has constant turnover through transfer portals and declaring for drafts.  

 

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

What if all the luxury tax money collected by the league could only be used by teams below the tax limit to sign their own free agents?

If Baseball's commissioner were to ever try to force owners to do this, they would immediately have him removed and replaced with another Manfred.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Of course, nobody knows what he will do.  However, I think everything Harris has done in his career may be a pretty good indicator of what we can expect in the future and it may be why Ilitch signed him.  Don't get me wrong. Being a somewhat wealthier version of the Rays is not necessarily a bad thing.  

What did he do in San Francisco and on the north side that leads you to believe this? Honest question.

[Tiger337]

35 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I am so thrilled they are not picking people anymore in the Rule 5 draft; it was like trying to get excited over dumpster diving

It was all about the party.  

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If this is true, then he is a lot more articulate when he is uncomfortable than I could ever be when I am totally comfortable.

it appeared to be hot, he probably knew he was sweating, which is always a bad look on camera, and it was quite noisey, which may have distracting. The text was almost verbatim what he has already rehearsed multiple times locally, so it wasn't like he was having to think much about what he wanted to say, only getting it said. It may have seemed worse exactly because we have already heard him give the same pitch under better conditions.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Baseball's commissioner were to ever try to force owners to do this, they would immediately have him removed and replaced with another Manfred.

change is hard!

But just pointing out there are solutions, people just won't adopt them. The 'lead.a horse to water' analogy is one that applies here, to too many things in fact.

Edited Wednesday at 03:28 PM by gehringer_2

[Toddwert]

24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The best way to woo fans is to put a winner on the field, and Scott Harris has done that in two of his first three years after inheriting an organization that got flattened by a hurricane.

a hurricane that brought most of the stars to the team

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it appeared to be hot, he probably knew he was sweating, which is always a bad look on camera, and it was quite noisey, which may have distracting. The text was almost verbatim what he has already rehearsed multiple times locally, so it wasn't like he was having to think much about what he wanted to say, only getting it said. It may have seemed worse exactly because we have already heard him give the same pitch under better conditions.

And what? This is a problem?

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

a hurricane that brought most of the stars to the team

Meaning Tork? He was the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he's not performing up to that standard yet.

Meaning Casey? He was also the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and I don't think anyone would confuse him with being a star.

Meaning Riley? He was the consensus 1/5 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he is not performing at the consistent All-star-level quality people expect from a fifth overall pick.

Meaning Carpernter? No 19th-round pick is a genius GM move, and he's a flawed hitter who can't field, either.

Meaning Skubal? No 9th-round pick is a genius GM move, and besides, he helped him become great. The Al Avila Tigers had nothing to do with that.

Anyone I'm missing?

In any event, the issue people have with Al Avila is not his ability to draft amateur players. The guy was a head scout, for crying out loud. If he can't draft decent talent, he wouldn't have that job in the first place. It is every other facet of general management he fell short on, unless you can provide an area in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking.

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

How hard would it suck if we ended up having to trade the guys who can play in the majors to get those deals done and we end up having to keep the guys who can't?

this is one of the differences between success and failure for the non LA/NYC market teams isn't it? Being right about which of your own prospects can be dealt because you've figured out which ones aren't going to make it before their prospect value has a chance to fail by failure? I think back in the day it became a by-word that you never traded for a pitching prospect from Atlanta because if they were giving them up, you could count on them not panning out. 🎓

[Toddwert]

Just now, chasfh said:

Meaning Tork? He was the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he's not performing up to that standard yet.

Meaning Casey? He was also the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and I don't think anyone would confuse him with being a star.

Meaning Riley? He was the consensus 1/5 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he is not performing at the consistent All-star-level quality people expect from a fifth overall pick.

Meaning Carpernter? No 19th-round pick is a genius GM move, and he's a flawed hitter who can't field, either.

Meaning Skubal? No 9th-round pick is a genius GM move, and besides, he helped him become great. The Al Avila Tigers had nothing to do with that.

Anyone I'm missing?

In any event, the issue people have with Al Avila is not his ability to draft amateur players. The guy was a head scout, for crying out loud. If he can't draft decent talent, he wouldn't have that job in the first place. It is every other facet of general management he fell short on, unless you can provide an area in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking.

you act like he was horrible that clearly isnt that horrible maybe he was stuck in the past but hardly a hurricane. 

[chasfh]

Just now, Toddwert said:

you act like he was horrible that clearly isnt that horrible maybe he was stuck in the past but hardly a hurricane. 

So, no areas you can provide in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking?

[Toddwert]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So, no areas you can provide in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking?

i said he brought in the best players on this team where was i wrong?... the Tigers org has always been behind he actually brought in Hinch, fetter and Garko too

Edited Wednesday at 03:34 PM by Toddwert

[Edman85]

Doesn't look like Finnegan and Anderson are official in the transactions logs, so I guess the Tigers could technically participate in the Major League phase today. I also wonder if the reason they have been slow to jump in the minor league free agent market including some of the nontenders I thought would be quickly re-signed is that they were having a hard time protecting players from the minor league phase or wanted to keep some roster space available to be very active in that phase.

[Edman85]

Doesn't look like Finnegan and Anderson are official in the transactions logs, so I guess the Tigers could technically participate in the Major League phase today. I also wonder if the reason they have been slow to jump in the minor league free agent market including some of the nontenders I thought would be quickly re-signed is that they were having a hard time protecting players from the minor league phase or wanted to keep some roster space available to be very active in that phase.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Toddwert said:

i said he brought in the best players on this team where was i wrong?... the Tigers org has always been behind he actually brought in Hinch and fetter too

And I said how little Avila had to do with being a genius on those acquisitions and with developing them into good players. Where was I wrong?

As for Hinch—you will dismiss this idea out of hand, and I grant it's a difficult hypothesis for Avila fans to entertain, but I wouldn't doubt that Avila thought that with Hinch he was getting damaged goods who also happened to win a ring, so I think Avila might have thought Hinch would be grateful for any managing job and be easy to control. I'd bet if Avila had any idea how mentally strong Hinch is, he would never have made that hire. I also believe Hinch was instrumental in pushing Avila out the door. Again, reject all this as you see fit.

[Tiger337]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Meaning Tork? He was the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he's not performing up to that standard yet.

Meaning Casey? He was also the consensus 1/1 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and I don't think anyone would confuse him with being a star.

Meaning Riley? He was the consensus 1/5 pick all 29 other teams would have made at the time, and he is not performing at the consistent All-star-level quality people expect from a fifth overall pick.

Meaning Carpernter? No 19th-round pick is a genius GM move, and he's a flawed hitter who can't field, either.

Meaning Skubal? No 9th-round pick is a genius GM move, and besides, he helped him become great. The Al Avila Tigers had nothing to do with that.

Anyone I'm missing?

In any event, the issue people have with Al Avila is not his ability to draft amateur players. The guy was a head scout, for crying out loud. If he can't draft decent talent, he wouldn't have that job in the first place. It is every other facet of general management he fell short on, unless you can provide an area in which he routinely excelled that that I am overlooking.

You could do the same thing with almost any teams draft picks if you want to make them look bad.  As for Greene, I think you are vastly overestimating the value of draft picks.  The median value of a 5th pick in the draft is zero career WAR.   He is already at 10.  Carpenter and Skubal were great picks, no matter how hard you try to rationalize that they weren't.   Also, you forgot Dillon Dingler.  

Edited Wednesday at 03:45 PM by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

The median value of a 5th pick in the draft is zero career WAR.

maybe the most bizarre thing there is about baseball.

[Edman85]

Also saying who was GM at the time they were drafted completely ignores the most important part of credit: how they were developed. You can be a great grocery shopper, but the food is going to suck if you aren't a good cook.

 

In this analogy, Avila was slow to learn how to cook and had Dave Littlefield as the chef and he was searing with non-stick and being careless with raw meat, but bought some nifty appliances he didn't know how to use at the end. They brought in Harris who knew how to use them and was able to make some banger meals.

Edited Wednesday at 03:53 PM by Edman85

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

You could do the same thing with almost any teams draft picks if you want to make them look bad.  As for Greene, I think you are vastly overestimating the value of draft picks.  The median value of a 5th pick in the draft is zero career WAR.   He is already at 10.  Carpenter and Skubal were great picks, no matter how hard you try to rationalize that they weren't.   

I would have to work hard to make a good GM look bad, but I don't think I have to work much at all to make Avila look bad.

I don't believe Carpenter and Skubal were anything like "great picks". They were lucky picks, seen by him as the best available at nineteen and nine that just happened to work out, the latter of which only because he had the presence of mind to go outside the system to fix himself. If Avila knew something everyone else didn't about either of these guys—if he knew they were All-Star or Cy Young or Hall of Fame caliber—he absolutely would have taken them a lot earlier than nineteen and nine.

And OK, I will go ahead and concede Avila was a genius for following the consensus and picking Riley Greene at 1/5 and allowing Scott Harris to turn him into a 2-win player and 2x All-Star.

[Toddwert]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And I said how little Avila had to do with being a genius on those acquisitions and with developing them into good players. Where was I wrong?

As for Hinch—you will dismiss this idea out of hand, and I grant it's a difficult hypothesis for Avila fans to entertain, but I wouldn't doubt that Avila thought that with Hinch he was getting damaged goods who also happened to win a ring, so I think Avila might have thought Hinch would be grateful for any managing job and be easy to control. I'd bet if Avila had any idea how mentally strong Hinch is, he would never have made that hire. I also believe Hinch was instrumental in pushing Avila out the door. Again, reject all this as you see fit.

you act like Harris came in with nothing which just isnt true .... you can poopoo all you want about what Aliva 

[chasfh]

Just now, Toddwert said:

you act like Harris came in with nothing which just isnt true .... you can poopoo all you want about what Aliva 

I do poopoo about what Avila. He gave us plenty to poopoo. Maybe that's why he spent so much time under Dave Dombrowski as a number two. 😉

[Toddwert]

7 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Also saying who was GM at the time they were drafted completely ignores the most important part of credit: how they were developed. You can be a great grocery shopper, but the food is going to suck if you aren't a good cook.

 

In this analogy, Avila was slow to learn how to cook, but bought some nifty appliances he didn't know how to use at the end. They brought in Harris who knew how to use them and was able to make some banger meals.

my point is the cupboard wasnt bare of good ingredients ....

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

Also saying who was GM at the time they were drafted completely ignores the most important part of credit: how they were developed. You can be a great grocery shopper, but the food is going to suck if you aren't a good cook.

Sure, but how can we know how Skubal, Carpenter and Greene would have developed if Avila was still the GM?  And maybe the current administration didn't develop Torkelson and Mize very well.  I don't think that's true, but there is a lot of speculation in determining how much was talent and how much was development.  

[Edman85]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Sure, but how can we know how Skubal, Carpenter and Greene would have developed if Avila was still the GM?  And maybe the current administration didn't develop Torkelson and Mize very well.  I don't think that's true, but there is a lot of speculation in determining how much was talent and how much was development.  

It's pretty clear based on industry consensus from myriad articles that the Tigers were way behind on Player Dev at a time it was really taking off in the industry. The turnaround started when Garko took over for Littlefield, and went into overdrive when Harris took over.

Edited Wednesday at 03:58 PM by Edman85