4/25/26 1:00PM Rd1 Gm3 Pistons 1-1 @ Magic 1-1

[Tigeraholic1]

Kia Center - Orlando, FL

Watch: Peacock

Edited Thursday at 12:48 PM by Tigeraholic1

[Deleterious]

Some on/off numbers for individuals.  These are per/100 possessions.

Cade - +38.7

Duren - +1.4

Harris - +1.6

Robinson - +16

Green - -0.3

Thompson - +37.3

Stewart - -11.6

Jenkins - -26

 

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Some on/off numbers for individuals.  These are per/100 possessions.

Cade - +38.7

Duren - +1.4

Harris - +1.6

Robinson - +16

Green - -0.3

Thompson - +37.3

Stewart - -11.6

Jenkins - -26

 

seems right except for stew's minus 11.  but that could be garbage time and him being saddled with playing too many minutes with jenkins.

[buddha]

I think they should now know who needs to get paid (ausar) and who needs to have someone else pay them (duren).

[Shinzaki]

Disagree on Duren...he's been a focal point of Orlando's defense for a reason.

I'm not entirley convinced he's completely  healthy right now...since his knee injury he does not look as explosive off the floor as he was prior to that...I suspect he might be playing through a nagging injury.  Nonetheless..he's made strides in a number of areas this year, including his ability to make passes off the double team when they collapse.

 

[buddha]

3 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

Disagree on Duren...he's been a focal point of Orlando's defense for a reason.

I'm not entirley convinced he's completely  healthy right now...since his knee injury he does not look as explosive off the floor as he was prior to that...I suspect he might be playing through a nagging injury.  Nonetheless..he's made strides in a number of areas this year, including his ability to make passes off the double team when they collapse.

 

1) it doesnt matter what happens this year because theyre going to pay duren.  hope for continued growth.

2) i'm not sure they are focusing more on duren than just packing the lane because the pistons cant shoot, and taking away the pick and roll.  that's not "focusing on duren" to me and rather focusing on taking away a huge part of DETROIT'S offense.  you can say that's just as much focusing on cade.

the dofference being cade is able to do other things.  duren is only able to roll to the basket and get lobs from cade.  he cant create his own shot.  he cant score when other teams set out to stop the pistons pick and roll.

3) if they really are "focusing on duren", it shows how easy it is to stop him.  as opposed to cade.  to me that shows duren as a replaceable player, not an irreplaceable max contract player.

[Shinzaki]

They are specifically defending him by packing the middle..they aren't doing that as much with Stew out there. One of the areas he improved in this year is his ability to facilitate from the high post down by either making an extra pass on the interior or kicking it out.  He's the team's best rebounder..and I don't just mean statistically..and he makes the shots he takes and draws a lot of fouls.  He the converts them at a high rate.  He lead the league in true shooting %....

I like Ausar..but he's an even more "flawed" player than Duren in that he can not shoot...at all.  I want to keep them both, but let's not Pretend that Ausar isn't seriously hampered offesnively

[buddha]

1 minute ago, Shinzaki said:

They are specifically defending him by packing the middle..they aren't doing that as much with Stew out there. One of the areas he improved in this year is his ability to facilitate from the high post down by either making an extra pass on the interior or kicking it out.  He's the team's best rebounder..and I don't just mean statistically..and he makes the shots he takes and draws a lot of fouls.  He the converts them at a high rate.  He lead the league in true shooting %....

I like Ausar..but he's an even more "flawed" player than Duren in that he can not shoot...at all.  I want to keep them both, but let's not Pretend that Ausar isn't seriously hampered offesnively

ausar is an ELITE defender.  like one of the best in the league.

duren is a bad defender.  whatever he brings on offense by being tall and jumping high when he is fed by his elite passing point guard does not surpass what ausar brings in value on defense.

i like duren, but he is replaceable in a way that ausar is not.  both ausar and duren have to be surrounded by floor spacers because neither of them can shoot, but to me ausar brings more overall value because he is an elite lock down defender and creates offense off that skill.

duren for $18m?  cool.  $20m?  sure.  $25m?  sketchy.  making as much as cade?  gtfo.

[Shinzaki]

Duren is an elite rebounder and scorer in the paint and has shown a decent jumper from the line, be great if he shot it more...but he doesn't need to particularly often.   I'm intrigued by the ability to pass out of the high post that he displayed when Cade was injured, I think he averaged around 4 assists in the last half dozen games or so and picked up 4 the other night.

Ausar is a great defender and is fun to watch...but I'm not paying him max. He lacks discipline and control and has no real offensive game

Edited 20 hours ago by Shinzaki

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

Duren is an elite rebounder and scorer in the paint and has shown a decent jumper from the line, be great if he shot it more...but he doesn't need to particularly often.   I'm intrigued by the ability to pass out of the high post that he displayed when Cade was injured, I think he averaged around 4 assists in the last half dozen games or so and picked up 4 the other night.

Ausar is a great defender and is fun to watch...but I'm not paying him max. He lacks discipline and control and has no real offensive game

Duren is 22 which is still young for a big -  has improved his defensive and offensive stats every season he has played so far. Have we seen peak Duren yet? You can make the same argument for Thompson based on his age with the caveat that Thompson's problem is shooting and the odds of a guy who can't even make a decent % of FT improving his shooting much don't excite me. OTOH, Duren can still become better by becoming a better defender. Which do you want to project?

Edited 18 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Deleterious]

15 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Some on/off numbers for individuals.  These are per/100 possessions.

Cade - +38.7

Duren - +1.4

Harris - +1.6

Robinson - +16

Green - -0.3

Thompson - +37.3

Stewart - -11.6

Jenkins - -26

 

Just isolated Duren's net rating for the times Ausar is off the court and Duren is on.  He is a -26.5 in that time.

[buddha]

6 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

Duren is an elite rebounder and scorer in the paint and has shown a decent jumper from the line, be great if he shot it more...but he doesn't need to particularly often.   I'm intrigued by the ability to pass out of the high post that he displayed when Cade was injured, I think he averaged around 4 assists in the last half dozen games or so and picked up 4 the other night.

Ausar is a great defender and is fun to watch...but I'm not paying him max. He lacks discipline and control and has no real offensive game

duren has been shut down in the playoffs two years in a row.  if he was an elite scorer that wouldnt happen.

but he's not an elite scorer.  duren is andre drummond without the ego complex and the addiction to burger king.

AND THATS FINE.  as long as you dont pay him the max like the pistons paid drummond.  if you do, you'll be paying him second star money when he's actually a role player.  a good role player, but a role player nonetheless.

[Shinzaki]

You can shut down an elite post scorer if you pack the paint to shut him down.  Duren is so far above Drummond in terms of work on defense nd passing ability...that said, Drummond's had a long NBA career and he's arguably the 4th or 5th best Pistons big in the last 50 years. (Lanier, Wallace, Laimbeer , Drummond and Duren).

 

[Shinzaki]

6 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Just isolated Duren's net rating for the times Ausar is off the court and Duren is on.  He is a -26.5 in that time.

And how many minutes is tht and who else is on the court?

[buddha]

18 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

And how many minutes is tht and who else is on the court?

if he's elite, why does it matter?

[gehringer_2]

The other question is how long does Ausar's extreme athleticism last? Rodman's did for a long time, but it's never a given that a player won't grow or be injured out that athleticism sooner rather than later, and if there is no corresponding increase in skill level to compensate, you have a declining asset. No choices are risk free.

Edited 9 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Shinzaki]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

if he's elite, why does it matter?

Pistons lost 60+ games with Cade...is he not elite?

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

And how many minutes is tht and who else is on the court?

On the golf course but it appears to be 21 minutes with Duren on and Thompson off.

It can be any other player on the roster that isn't Thompson.  

[Shinzaki]

So it's not really a meaningful data point...

[Deleterious]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

So it's not really a meaningful data point...

Only 4 of the 16 teams will even hit the 15 game played mark.  Playoffs are short, you have to make do with small data set sizes.

If you want something with more minutes we can look at last years playoffs.  Duren in 110 minutes with Ausar on the court was +6.7.  In 94 minutes without Thompson on the court, Duren was -23.4

[DTroppens]

I will be on the road for this one. It's going to be a sirus/xm radio game for me. My wife has a super rare Saturday off (had to use her last vacation days of her work anniversary) and had this planned a couple of weeks ago. 

Hmmmm, It's a Peacock game. I do have Peacock and keep forgetting I do. I think they archive games, right? Maybe I should just try to ignore social media and radio stations (I've become pretty good at doing this) and just watch the game when I get a chance late Sat night.  I think I may try to do that.

[buddha]

4 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

Pistons lost 60+ games with Cade...is he not elite?

cade wasnt elite then.

he is now.

duren wasnt elite then either and he isnt now.

[buddha]

i hope duren turns it around and dominates this game.

[buddha]

4 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

So it's not really a meaningful data point...

do you think duren is better than cade and/or ausar?

[Betrayer]

9 hours ago, buddha said:

duren has been shut down in the playoffs two years in a row.  if he was an elite scorer that wouldnt happen.

but he's not an elite scorer.  duren is andre drummond without the ego complex and the addiction to burger king.

AND THATS FINE.  as long as you dont pay him the max like the pistons paid drummond.  if you do, you'll be paying him second star money when he's actually a role player.  a good role player, but a role player nonetheless.

Exactly. Duren is a better version of Dre. He's just as bad at defense and just as bad at any offense outside of put-backs and lobs. I'm thankful he doesn't miss shots intentionally to pad his stats like Drummond did and that he spends some time in the gym, but he's still pretty replaceable in this era of the NBA.

People talk about his passing, but making a good pass occasionally doesn't make you a "good passer". When you average 2 Assists and 1.9 Turnovers, you aren't a good passer.

Duren is a high level role player. But he's also a traditional Center who's a poor defender that can't space the floor. We can talk about his age and all that, but players don't suddenly become elite paint defenders. Maybe he could learn to hit the corner three one day but I'm going to need to see him take a couple a game before we start to project that.

You don't pay that archetype max money. The worst thing you can have in the NBA is a fringe All-Star making max money. It cripples you, especially with the new rules.

That said, I'm not paying Ausar max money either, because I think the max should be reserved for All NBA first team candidates. However, if you put a gun to my head and made me choose to give one or the other a max, it's Ausar and I don't even have to think hard about it.

Why? We don't have to talk about projections with Ausar's defense. He's literally the best perimeter defender in the league right now and was a top 3 finalist for DPOY. Both the numbers and the eye test will easily show you that he warps the game (on both ends) when he's on the court. It's no coincidence that this team suddenly got good when Ausar came back from his blood clot.

If we had a spacing big man and a better coach we could run Ausar in the Draymond role as the DHO hub instead of using Duren as we do now. He's a way better passer (2 to 1 Ast/TO) and putting the ball in his hands solves the spacing issues. Imagine prime Draymond with Ausar's athleticism if you want to do some projections of what he could be in years to come. That's much closer to a max player than a big man who can't defend or shoot, not matter how good he is at layups and dunks when teams don't box him out during the regular season.