I think a lot of diplomacy is performative. We know one thing. Vladdie wants to destroy a democratic Ukraine. He may have calculated that this won't work this time. He may think he needs to do more elite capture like he did with Orban in Hungary, Trump and Tucker (et.al.,) in the United States and certain UK pols.
But, this could still work. He could get pols bending over to avoid bloodshed. Ben and Jerry's (!) for example is tweeting that Biden is a warmonger for sending a pittance of troops to Eastern Europe.