I'm not that worried about the rushing defense. They've been pretty stout this year and really good at plugging holes. I'd be surprised if Henry runs free. I think the keys to victory are:
1) Making Lamar a little uncomfortable. It sounds dumb because it's almost impossible to do; he just takes off when he feels pressure. But if Hutch can get home once or twice in the first few drives, they can get some creative blitz packages in there, and just make Lamar see some ghosts, he will start taking off before he needs to. That's when our defensive line can get him, before he breaks contain and we are chasing him all over the field like two years ago.
2) Linebackers playing disciplined. One big piece that is different from two years ago is our linebacking corps. I think Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes are one of the most underrated linebacking corps in football this year. Two years ago, it was the same three, but Campbell was a rookie in his 7th game ever. He got schooled. They need to be flying sideline to sideline this week.
3) The offense needs to be flawless. There is no room for a stalled start or missed assignments. They need to go into this game like they need to score every time they touch the ball. First to 50 wins. That likely won't ultimately be the case, but it needs to be the attitude. The Bills showed you that it's possible to score some points on the Baltimore defense. Go execute. I would also agree with you that to the extent they can control TOP, that will work in their favor. But more than anything, just score points. Every. Single. Time. I'll take a 1-play, 75-yard pass to Jamo in 0:08 over a 14-play, 68-yard methodical drive that results in a field goal. Whether the defense is gassed or not, Lamar is going to score points.