Screwball

If Musk takes TWTR to zero, good. I hope FB says, hold my beer. But I digress... If that dream would happen, and it won't, there would be another taking their place in the not too distant future. So it don't (sic) matter. I give him credit (or someone working for him) for the sink thing, and then enough gonads to do it. I respect that; but I'm just a fucking screwball myself. 🙂 I would go to work for Musk, but not a Bezos. I don't think he would bust your ass if you did your job, and besides, he's too busy trying to be Crocodile Dundee.

This could go in the investment thread, but I don't want to do that. I don't care if you love or hate the guy, he is, without a doubt, a real hoot.

FTA: Natural gas on the open market is up %5.5 today. Related; IEA: The Current Energy Crisis Is Unprecedented There Is Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply, the Lowest Since 2008 - Mish & Bloomberg Cost of living protests and strikes across Europe might spell political trouble Yea, it's all good. Fucking idiots.

I'm guessing Paul and Nancy are not quite as giddy as you are, nor all the people who have Vanguard accounts, but hey, it's great losing money as long as it's people you hate and it makes you feel good. Pelosi Exercises Tesla Stock Options To Buy $2 Million In Shares - from March TSLA Institutional Holdings - from the NASDAQ Or maybe you forgot to disclose you were short, but I doubt that is the case. Up over 7% today.

Off topic, but wild stuff in NASCAR today. Those dirt guys.

Another visual.

I watched this from before the 8:30 print. The e-minis (S&P futures) were up then. Took the huge shit when the print hit. Then of course the S&P was going to open gap down at 9:30, which it did, and not long after it was off to the races. Wild. I have no clue what to think.

I was wondering about exactly this today. Happen to cross my Twitter. I remember 4 of those. One in 2008, a buddy of mine sold over a million bucks worth of stock in the morning - a total capitulation - only to watch it go nuts just after he sold. We met and had beers later that day. He didn't look well.

Around 171 S&P points in 2 hours 15 minutes. This is not a normal market. I'm guessing some pain was felt by some.

Overlooked data point today; US Jobless Claims Reach Six-Week High in Wake of Hurricane Ian

Still down, but the market is recovering nicely so far. *** Good thing we didn't make that SPY trade - talk about getting smoked

I don't remember the exact numbers, but we (those on SS) got an X% raise (like this one) last year but our supplemental insurance went up enough to eat all our gains and then some. Thanks assholes.

Consumer Price Index Summary Ouch! Your move Jay.

Thinking later about this. A few pages ago Del brought up the "Flash Boys" book, which is about HFT (high frequency trading). The price of servers close to the exchange. Millions spent running fiber optic across oceans. All to save milliseconds. The couple "impulse" trades I just documented happen each and every day by retail traders, or those who run their own money. Just not quite as fast. But that is how trading works - millions of times a day - for billions and billions of dollars. While we can trade billions of dollars of stocks in milliseconds, it takes 3 days to settle those trades (tracked by CUSIP #). How fucked up is that? It gets better. When our trade clears, and we get our confirmation, the $357.04 buy price is $357.04XX. Apparently scalping XX part of a penny millions and millions of times a day makes Wall Street money. Of course it does. And somehow legal.

That's only half of the trade.

I had a chance to look this over. Chart porn incoming. I'll start with this one from before. I have now done the math. If you were looking to get into this trade on Tuesday, what price will you get? The first issue is we are looking at the S&P 500 and not the SPY ETF as the means to make the trade. We can't buy the S&P. I'm looking to trade off the 3588.11 level, to the lower end of the gap at 3739.22. Around a 4% yield if you get the breaks. That in and of itself isn't very tempting. We are looking at the S&P to give us buy/sell points, which would look like this if we bought out of the gate on Tuesday; The problem is - we are not, and can't, buy the S&P, so we have to use an ETF. In this case, SPY. A derivative of the index. Below is a chart with the same buy/sell point except it is a chart of the ETF. I based the values on a buy in point on Tuesday, and the low of the day the gap would close on 10/6. Buy at $357.04 with a gap close of $371 ish. So you might make $400 bucks on a 10 grand trade. The SPY chart; Hard to see anything here, which is why I prefer to use the index for timing instead of the ETF. We knew enough on Monday to not make this trade. Some of the best trades ever, are the ones you don't make.

I was busy with school all day so I haven't looked at the charts yet. I expected a bounce here. Mostly because some Fed people (not only here) were getting dovish the other day. Then there is that $3588.11 level thing. Intraday on Monday it hit that level right to the penny, and the rest of the day went up. A bullish sign. I haven't done the math, but a gap fill looks like it might be worth it. I don't know what you could have paid for the SPY ETF (I would use SPY because it is the most liquid) that morning, but I think there was still room to get in the trade.

This interests me because I'm an oil guy. Disclosure; I'm long oil. I don't know what all this jawboning is going to do, but there seems to be some "issues" to jawbone about. What do we think is going to happen here? I don't want to get into a political pissing match, only what might happen as far as the results of this current spat with the kingdom. Simple answers please.

I'm having a hard time finding any good news out of anything. So I watch the charts - human behavior you might say. First, if we were still in our oil trade it might be time to dump that and take the grand or so we made - or maybe not. Let's take a peek at some chart porn. 9 month 1 day chart of the S&P. Notice the 3588.11. The other day the market reversed in the middle of the day and the pundits blamed it on some Fed dick jawboning. I don't think so. It bounced off that 3588.11 to the penny (shown on a daily chart). This level goes back to the last week of August of 2020. Things are getting dicey. Next stop 3393.52 if shit doesn't change. Will the money printers of the world capitulate? Don't know. But there might be a trade here.

It's not interesting, it's fucking illegal. But nothing is illegal for these pukes. The people at the Fed were doing the same thing. We get lip service they are going to fix this but that's all it ever is - lip service. They are corrupt to the core and laws only apply to us serfs. Fuck all these pieces of shit.

FTA: It was really difficult to read that article. What a bunch of complete and utter horseshit. The Bernank should be run out of town with a pike up his ass. Fuck him.

Crude back into the 90s. IF we would have kept the oil trade we would be up $1591.50. Crude has went up around %22 in the last 11 days (9 trading days). Our local gas went from $3.49 to $3.89.

compounding/exponents are a bitch *** Speaking of which - the search for yield. Posted somewhere above are bank rates for money sitting in a bank account. .01, ain't it great. When do these rate hike filter down to our bank accounts????? But I digress... Since interest rates have risen, a one month T-bill is once again a way to make a better return than our money sitting in bank accounts, and still have the ability to get liquid in a short period of time. I started a bond ladder this week buying 1 month T-bills, and will do so each week for the next 3 weeks. Then roll them over the next month. The latest auction went for $9979.30 (out of your bank account to the US Treasury) which will return $10k in a month if you spent the 10 grand - so you make 20 bucks and some change. If you rotate 4 of them you are making around $80 a month on every $40k investment, which is better than .01 will pay on the same amount. Investing boredom.

I snipped a bunch out of a few previous posts, but this goes back to our oil trade. We didn't lose any money, so it wasn't a bad trade. Looking back, probably should have sold when it closed the gap and been happy with the $450ish, given the circumstances. But you never know. A few days later OPEC decides to get in the ball game and shit changes. The two dashed horizontal lines are our buy/sell points, the vertical dashed is the day we sold. Today, it closed at $71.94. If we would have stayed in the trade, we would be up $1117.50. That's the kind of shit that drives you nuts. But you didn't know OPEC was going to do this. Or, maybe you should have had a better clue.