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Everything posted by gehringer_2
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Sometimes the obvious just turns out to be .....obvious.
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Yup. Just as an experiment, after my 'For you' suddenly went to crap earlier in the year, I just started rejecting posts to see if the algorithm would eventually get overridden. It will after you reject at least a few hundred, but even after that you now need to keep up a constant rate of 'maintenance' post rejections to keep it decent. The site isn't worth the effort any more. If I can help move the market to a better product I'm good with that.
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There is a difference between pursuing things which are known to be possible but where the technical feasibility is unknown, and pursuing things that can never work.
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Simon had to pick up his D partner after Rust left him in a heap on the 2nd goal. 🤣
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This, sadly.
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HaHa - Kyle would probably take the job more seriously.
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
I wonder how much the Tig gave back.... -
TBF, it's hard to elevate your wing mate much when it's often Steve Yzerman. I agree with most of the comments here. Pavel was the heir of Igor Larionov, but with even more flair. In an odd way I would put Fedorov into a group closer to Messier. He wasn't a bruiser like Messier so so no comparison on that end at all but he had the same all over the ice impact.
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Bill Veeck owned them before Reinsdorf. Veeck was owner 59-61 and 75-81. The Comisky's were pre-Veeck
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Not good to hear this for the short term result but longer term it could be good news for the Dems in the midterms if 2022 was any indication.
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
I think the smart people running baseball teams have figured out that in baseball you get paid for what you did more than what you are going to do. That means there are two ways to run a franchise. If you are rich enough to be NYY or LAD, you buy the proven players knowing you will end up paying much higher $$ per performance but you don't care because you have the income. The alternative to invest all you can in the front end and field young cheap teams where the players are building the resumes that will get them paid later, but who are cheap now. The other bonus is that younger players are healthier, faster and play better defense. If you are a low revenue team, this is your path. You might spend on extending guys early and buying out arb years plus, but the older top FAs are not going to be your playing field because the never pay back their contracts in their second halves. The trick is don't get caught in the middle like the Tigers did post DD, paying for players you can't afford who don't produce, which stresses your development spending. I think you have to avoid ending up half in/half out. Which is why I don't take much comfort in the "the Tigers will spend when they are ready" line because what I don't want them to do is what they did before. -
I would tend to agree that for heavy engines diesel's are going to be harder to replace than getting gasoline engines off the street. One aspect of this that gets sort of into the weeds technically but that is interesting to me because of my history, is that if demand for gasoline falls precipitously, which there is every likelihood is going to happen in the next 30-40 yrs, but demand for diesel and jet fuel do not - and it's hard to see how they can drop anywhere nearly as fast, there is going to be a very hard question of what refiner's are going to do with all the light ends they are going to have left over. The Otto engine was invented/gained popularity in the first place because gasoline was cheap and available because the major refinery product back then was medium weight oil - heating/lighting etc and the gasoline was left over. It's generally harder to process small molecules into larger ones and since the rise of the spark engine, gasoline has long been the major refinery output, there wasn't much need to. To reconfigure refining in so major a way will cost refiners huge dollars when they are facing overall shrinking sales volume. To me this is the kind of real world tech 'gotcha' laying in the weeds out there that flies well below any academic or political consciousness about the future.
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
Just for context, there were 25 1B with 350 AB last season, the median wRC+ was 109. Tork was at 90 for his full season but 125 after his return in August. So he 'just' has to be his best self. Still, being consistent in the majors is a lot easier said than done. Also he improved to neutral to slightly positive as a fielder last season as per both Statcast and BR so less concern that he has to overcome liability there. -
2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
The trick is to keep your evaluations on level basis. A FO might get too down on its own players because they see the flaws too closely (grass is greener syndrome), or get too in love with their own players because of selection bias (Avila?). You'd think analytics would reduce these effects but at least for now - there are still people making the decisions so it can still happen. Not to mention that less quantifiable non-baseball issues can still end up important as they have with Franco. -
yeah - this is the paradox. The league looks at the FLA market 'potential' and tells itself it can't miss out on Florida, but so far they haven't found that market to be as interested in them as they are in it. Tampa and Miami have consistently lagged the rest of the league in attendance and last season were 2nd and 3rd worst after only the Oakland team that has already told its fans to bag it.
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I saw Delvecchio but not in his prime. I remember him mostly between Howe and Norm Ullman, which was still a very good line. But the game is so different today a comparison to that era seem almost meaningless. Federov is a more conceivable comparison. I think Pavel was more artful, more extraordinary coordination leading to more impossible plays, but to me Federov was the better player just because of his much greater physical capacity. Pavel's impacts were episodic in a game and he could be muscled. Federov was more the end to end force all the time time he was on the ice -OK we are talking 'good' Sergie here, not one we sometimes got in later years. But bottom line I absolutely would have traded a 23 yr old Datsuk for a 23 yr old Federov without a second thought.
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Time to blow this team up? Or stay the course?
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Red Wings
To me there are two reasons to fire the coach: One, you think you are close or maybe there talent wise and a new voice will be able to get the team into a little overdrive that will end up in a big season, which to me is your spark idea. Wings don't seem to be close enough for that to be a workable strategy. But the second reason is just that you decide your guy isn't good enough at what he need to be achieving, and I could see Lalonde getting the boot over that because we just aren't seeing much growth/improvement in any of the players on this team under his watch or much improvement in their style or precision of play over that last couple years either. OK, they are marginally better at keeping the other team wide when in their own zone, but it's come at the same time that every bit of offensive flair seems to have drained away. The team has to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. -
This kind of thing has to drive the serious project 2025 people crazy because if you put someone in charge who is a total rank amateur, it doesn't matter what the policies are or try to be, they don't have the first idea where the buttons and knobs are to actually to do anything, they have no idea how to 'operate' the job, who to call, etc. It's like dropping a airline travel writer behind the stick of a 787 and saying "there ya go! Run it like you think it should be run." Trump apparently learned less in this first time around the bend than I thought he might of, making the same mistakes over again.
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understood, but I was just spinning on the very very unlikely possibility it could have worked out for Tigers because our org was so special it would turn a guy into a model citizen - IOW a little Lion pixie dust overshoots Ford field and hist Comerica....
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Time to blow this team up? Or stay the course?
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Red Wings
Yzerman won't blow it up, he's just going to keep sticking with it and working incrementally. That's his MO. It would take a move by ownership to dump SY before a teardown happens, and that doesn't seem likely either. We fan's can only hope that in the next couple of seasons Mazur, Danielson and Cossa all hit. If not it will be getting to be a long drought. Three players are enough to lift a hockey team if they are all upgrades. Those three would make 8 home grown decent or better players plus DeBrincat. -
earch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/most-americans-think-us-k-12-stem-education-isnt-above-average-but-test-results-paint-a-mixed-picture/#:~:text=By Brian Kennedy,pupils in these other countries. I have a theory about why the US lags in math. I think it's because elementary school teachers in general tend to be people who do not have strong math skills - if they did the general employment and economic realities push them into other fields. But all those wonderful liberal arts teachers then subliminally inculcate that lack of confidence in the ability of any ordinary person to understand mathematics into their students. kidding - well maybe half kidding.....
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Time to blow this team up? Or stay the course?
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Red Wings
I know it's hard to score good players after the 1st round in the NHL draft, but how much worse? Is Yzerman's staff achieving at least better than average results? If not it's time to face some changes there. You must have an above average draft operation to get better in a cap league. I don't know how many seasons it would take before I could watch the Wings if they traded Larkin - he's been about the only reason to watch this team play for last 4 yrs. But it may be the only way for them to get unstuck. But I can guarantee you that playing for these bad teams and coaches has discounted his value to where we won't get equal value back for him. OTOH, he could have a great finish to his career somewhere else, which he deserves. -
You never know what a mentor/mentee protegor/protege relationship might produce in terms of cleaning up a guy's life. People can always make a difference. People have to taught/motivated what not to do and it's mostly other people that do that work. But granted Wander was probably too far down the road.
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I have no philosophical problem with the money following the kids, I just want schools (and Hospitals for that matter, where the problem is just as bad....) that get any public money to be required to be non-profit. No socialization of cost, privatization of revenue. It should become today's mantra like "No taxation without representation" once was.
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Not only pad her resume, but make her a house hold name. Instead she was about the most invisible VP since Dan Quayle I guess everybody has their own weirdness. Biden certainly seemed totally enthused about her in the end, it was no Ike/Nixon kind of show. So then way did he didn't he see he was torpedoing for VP ship for 3 years? Was he afraid if he made her look good that would have increase pressure on him not to run? I'd have to guess that was it, and if so it turned out to be a pretty terrible miscalculation.