gehringer_2

sure if your talent is unique enough it doesn't matter. No one ever sounded like Joplin, you can say the same about Aretha. But Winehouse comes close to the opposite case - she was almost as well known for her problems as her talent. The other way around it is to be your own songwriter - if you compose that is a whole different world compared to "just a singer" . If you have a look and write a little (or at least get credit for it), then the limit is more like...... Taylor Swift.

In physical science your are usually looking for direct causality, and that should have a very high correlation at least at across some range and linearization - otherwise you are probably just looking at the correlate of some more fundamental factor you don't know - or your data is just too noisy. In social science or human survey data it's almost the opposite, you may be looking for things that may only be weakly causative or that only a fraction of the population responds strongly to. Sports metrics are probably somewhere in the middle of that continuum - some things very directly causative (FB velo), some things maybe tied to other factors that are partially hidden - for instance maybe curveball spin matters more at particular spin axes. And then some things probably get into more psychologically dominated effects where some players may react and some don't at all so you get the average results of sub populations with high and low correlation respectively.

LGs problem, if you want to call it that, is that she is not 'pretty' in any classic way, and as a female performer that puts her at such a disadvantage that all that 'other stuff' is an outgrowth of the fact, much like it was for Madonna. If you're cute as a button Linda Ronstadt or knock down gorgeous Beyonce then you don't need any of that to get the industry to pay attention to you long enough to actually hear your talent.. Just the way it is.

I think you just wrote a pretty good NBA head coach to-do list.

I would say the issue here is that to simply have some detectable level of effect is not a very high bar (this is also the bugaboo about drug trials). You could have enough additional success for you statistics to still show some effect, but how much would it be worth in terms of making enough difference matter given all the other drivers in a given game? I tend to think that in general, those things which have high the highest correlation are likely to be causative and the lower correlated effects are likely simply secondary correlates of those primary drivers. I think this logic holds in particular when you can at least posit the direct action of factor (e.g. a faster faster fastball required a batter with faster reflexes), as compared to more diffuse or generalized outcome measurements,

Of course the converse is that if guys like that didn't buy them, even if just to park them, they might not get built at all. The possibilities are myriad though. If Bugatti can't sell one really terrible Veryon, maybe they build two less individually terrible but still in total terrible cars that two other people who buy them *will* drive. The mind boggles.

they have to refuse, they need the issue far more than they want a solution. The issue helps them get elected, a solution would take away the issue - or worse - give them direct ownership of whatever the new status quo turns out to be, which will be less than perfect since all real world situations are. Chalk it up to the basic ignorance of the American voter who doesn't see that the current situation is largely the result of GOP refusal to meaningfully address the issue for those 12 years. But that's how the US political cookie crumbles.

right - but there was always a bit of an unknown around how long boomers would choose to stay in the workforce. The counter arg was that by some measures a lot of them didn't have the resources put aside to retire comfortably and thus would keep working longer than their predecessors. The degree to which people have decided to make do with the retirement income they have was an open question.

Seems like that should be something that training could address. If you have the fast twitch it's going to be in all the muscle groups, not just the straight line ones. The counter would be that his lateral problem is not physical limitation but a mental one - insufficient recognition/anticipation. That might or might not be as fixable.

Good stuff What about slider spin? I get FB and curveball spin, but slider spin would be interesting because my pet theory is that that is the one most destructive to a pitcher's arm - it would be intreresting to confirm if the risk was at least worth it! I remember it was Jobe's slider spin they were so raptured about.

IDK, corelation coef at ~.5 really ain't much.

ironically, unless he is putting them out to rental, an individual collector like that actually insures that most of those cars never get driven. He's helping the environment by keeping all but one of them at a time parked in the garage - amirite?

To be clear, I think wage inflation for the bottom half of American workers is long past overdue and the rest of us can damn well put up with a sligthly crimped entertainment budget (etc) for the sake of a little better wage equality in this country. Of course it won't be that neat, the well educated who are in demand will still pull up even faster than laborers and service workers, but even given that, most of 4yr degreed world, techs, et al are still not 1%ers so it's still a shift of income in the right direction.

to double down implies he has more chips to put out on the table. Putin will be testing his assumption there.

hope some of the JDAM capacity will be in place by then...

that's an interesting thought - I've had the impression that the brother are fairly competitive, one working for the other would be a different narrative.

I guess a lot better than that he wins it.

Just read a report today about the Fed deciding to give up on the idea of any of the early retired baby booomers coming back to the labor force post pandemic and so anticipating the need to continue fighting wage pull inflation with higher interest rates. But heaven forbid we let any more people into the country who are pretty desperate for gainful employment to support their families.

that sounds like a quote that is actually a closed captioning or audio or text capture. That's exactly the kind of error CC usually makes.

at minimum you'll have Pompeo and Pence along with DeSantis - though I can see Pence's campaign folding within about 10 minutes of him announcing it. What a zero.

he was purchased. Three guesses as to who would put money like that into a US election race....

they should pitch well enough to avoid losing 100. The rest is up in the air but there hasn't been much of anything new to be encouraged about.

this is right. The only way 2023 is in any way successful is if the 2022 team was a bunch of guys who were a lot better than they showed because they all had a bunch of bad luck that isn't going to be repeated in addition to a sprinkling of prospects not quite ready for the majors then who will be this season.. These things are either true or they are not If not, we're are looking at another long multi-year road back. We can make any kind of story or speculation around it we like, but that is the bottom line for the organization.

The black and white letters say that, but it seems in the NBA today, top tier players have a lot of success at getting what they want. 🤷‍♀️

which goes back to something I thought back in 2016, which was that whichever candidate won the presidency that year, their party was going to suffer long term. It didn't actually seem to happen with Trump, but maybe (hopefully) it's just been a delayed reaction because his cult of personality has the glue holding that voting coalition together. If the GOP turns against him now en masse - which seems to be the plan - at least in terms of presidential politics, the GOP's underlying weakness may be become more exposed. That said, I wouldn't underestimate the Dem's ability to screw up the chance they may get.