mtutiger

I didn't realize it until now, but apparently all of the major ratings agencies (Cook, Sabato, etc.) had NY-3 as a toss-up. Even factoring in the polls showing a small Suozzi lead, that was a miss as well... should have been Lean D given that he also held significant financial/advertising advantages and from being a former Congressman from the area.

I do want to clarify that it'll be off by less than it looked like previously with more of Nassau being counted.... (more like 3 points, not 5-7 lol) But still, it does seem like no one considered the possibility that Suozzi could be underestimated either. It's a reminder that, just because in the Trump era it's become gospel that polls only underestimate Republicans, that errors can happen in both directions.

Turnout ended up around 60-65% of 2022 Midterm turnout in the same district, which is fairly high turnout for a special election... so I'm not buying the snow storm being a huge factor... at full turnout, I just don't think the numbers move enough.

The usual caveats apply, but the Suozzi race is also looking like a pretty sizeable polling miss as well. Most were expecting low single digits, it may end up pulling in a double digits.

Truly looney tunes stuff. One of the most underrated pieces of analysis about our current state / this upcoming election, imo, has come from Tim Walz (Governor of Minnesota)... saw a couple of clips from news shows last fall where he observed, paraphrasing, that the GOP runs a lot of really weird candidates. And that weirdness is a real weakness... JD's comments are emblematic of that. Aside from how dark and ugly it comes across, it is just really freaking weird to anyone not in that bubble.

Here's one of the minions... Really really weird ****

I also think that the Mike Gallagher types heading for the exits kinda tells the story as well.... don't have to agree with their worldview to recognize these are people who ran for Congress to try to do the work and to legislate. And a lot of these folks (Gallagher, McMorris Rogers, Granger, etc.) are heading for the exits, and one imagines that the direction of the party away from doing actual policy and more toward messaging and grifting (Gaetz, Greene, etc.) has had an impact on why they are choosing to retire. It all confirms what I am seeing, is that this institution is off the rails and is unlikely to be put back onto the rails anytime soon.

Biden managed to pass CHIPS, Bipartisan Infrastructure and Build Back Better, among other pieces of legislation, with pretty narrow majorities (including overcoming the 60-vote threshold) in the last Congress. His reputation on that front is fine IMO. Obviously a President having a good understanding of the legislative process and / or working relationship with members of Congress helps; clearly he gets along with Mitch McConnell, which has helped in some of his legislative achievements. But at the end of the day, there are no Presidents who would work around the kind of rhetorical incoherence that we saw out of Congress during the last week. And frankly, we have three branches of government. Biden is the Executive. The Legislative Branch is the legislative branch. Just as Biden gets blame for things that happen in his administration, Congress should shoulder 100% the blame for how it functions, and when it fails to function.

The acquisition of Leonard in general was surprising in that he didn't seem like "cash considerations" material. Don't want to overhype him either, just think it was a really small price to pay for a decent prospect.

Yeah, I think he's trade bait. I'm not Scott Harris, but if I were, I'd be looking into that if Chapman signs with SF

If the Giants are still interested and theoretically signed him, what's their plan for JD Davis?

Within the context of what they are (ie. purely a fan based podcast, not backed by a larger publication), I don't mind Rog or Chris at all. They aren't always right and can mess up details (including Rog with names), but they also seem earnest in trying to learn and understand the sport. The fact that they have landed some larger interviews of late (including Garko) is a reflection of the work they have put in, even if the overall product is unpolished. That's a different situation from the TTC situation, which (I assume) is an Athletic backed podcast and where you would expect the quality to be much higher, especially considering that Stavenhagen is probably the best beat writer that follows this team. Losing the tangents into other subjects would help... as much as Gorosh can annoy everyone, his podcast with Petzold is structured much better and stays on topic for the most part.

That's fair. The commercial strikes me as the kind of thing that will be hailed as savvy by the people you would expect to hail it as savvy, but when you really sit and think about, just reinforces that RFK Jr. really has no qualifications, nor any reason for anybody to care about him or what he thinks, beyond his last name. Not to mention that the money spent on the ad would have been much better allocated toward gathering signatures to actually get on the ballot.... which isn't even a guarantee at this point for him.

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but the older I get, the more creeped out I get by the obsession our country has over that family in general. RFK Jr. sort of plays into it, but don't forget the role that JFK Jr. has in QAnon as well. Just kinda feels creepy and exploitative.

Excuses, excuses, excuses

I honestly don't understand why any leader in any capitol in Europe would trust us at this point. I hate to say it, but it's reality. And as a collective, I don't think Americans really understand the negatives that would come with losing the NATO alliance. We have a lot power on the world stage and to determine its direction, there's a ton of benefits from a financial and prestige perspective. And if we aren't the guarantors of that, someone else (ie. China) will gladly fill that void.

It's not an apples to apples comparison, and most by now have forgotten it, but one incident that continues to stick out during the Trump era was the Gary Johnson "Aleppo" gaffe. Like, Johnson was clearly out of his depth, but he was earnest in the process regardless and overall seemed decent. The media absolutely roasted him for it. By contrast, Trump, on the subject of the Middle East, gave an answer in (iirc) Debate One with HRC that would best be described as verbal diarrhea. One that, just on merits alone, was even more incoherent than Johnson's was. And nobody cared... I always sort of remember it because it really emphasized to me how little substance really matters in how these things get framed. People have low expectations of Trump on substance, and he drives clicks and ratings. So it checks out that he gets treated differently

Somehow, I doubt this will result in a takeover of the Times Op-Ed pages tmrw

Yiiikes

Nice to see that NBC asked some actual professionals... I value their opinions a little more than Bret Stephens and Ross Douthat lol

The GOP Brain Drain in Congress continues apace

Simply acknowledging the existence of differences between the two cases apparently gets boiled down to "but Trump". I'm with Edman on this one.

Was meant to be an explanation, not a defense. But I think you know that.