mtutiger

I'd extend this comment about crime messaging to the "anti-woke" stuff as well. It's another case where the hysteria about "drag queen story hours" is probably more of a punchline than it's given credit for

100%. The term has it's purposes, but it is used so frequently and is directed scattershot at so many different things that it is kinda devoid of meaning... For most who use it, it's secondhand for "thing I don't like about society" But the flip side is that " anti-woke" isn't necessarily popular either... Ranting against transgender athletes is a great example... That vice signaling works for the already converted, but one imagines it's a loser with middle of the road voters needed to win in competitive areas

I get what you are saying. Sometimes people need to touch the hot stove to learn.

I've been thinking a lot about the crime messaging... it was widely accepted as being pretty good politics and strategy in this election but there were anecdotal signs (both in real life interactions as well as on the sports talk station I listen to) that the more hysterical stuff in TV ads (such as "rainbow fentanyl candy") and stuff like that became a punch line after a while. Everyone else's mmv, but thats what I saw

Trump was also seen much differently at the time... he was seen as being more moderate on not just fiscal policy as well as even social policy. He wasn't seen as a virulently anti-abortion candidate for instance, and his brand was significantly less intertwined with social conservatism and evangelicalism. That changed once he became President and, more or less, did everything that the social conservatives wanted. And that partly explains the failures of 2018, 2020 and now 2022 imo

I grew up in a conservative household in one of the most conservative parts of Michigan (The Thumb). My first ballot was in 2006, straight Republican except for Debbie Stabenow. Including Dick DeVos, who is now antithetical to my views. My politics were already evolving, but the birther stuff was when I more or less wrote off the GOP. Not surprisingly, Trump was central to all of that, and to me it serves as foreshadowing for where our politics have ended up: conspiracy ridden and uncivil.

Lake needs to not only win the batch, but win it with close to 60%...

This one is on the precipice of going into the D column

But if Lawler abets that wing of the party, the chances he loses anyway in 2024 rise significantly. He's better off charting his own course and acting to the sensibilities of his district rather than worrying about a hypothetical primary challenge.

If you are the guy like Mike Lawler, who beat Sean Patrick Maloney in his Biden district, your path to staying in office is more contingent on staying in the center. The risk of losing in a general is greater than the risk of losing in a primary

Honestly, I believe this is more plausible than is considered at the moment. A lot of attention is focused on the leverage the Freedom Caucus has, but these new NY Reps, the ones who make up a disproportionate amount of the GOP's House gains, all come from Biden districts and probably want to be reelected in future elections. If the GOP were smart, they would want to keep these members happy, well before keeping MTG happy.

I don't know that polls are off on Biden's approval, I just think that the political media had a hard time understanding that those who "somewhat disapprove" may not have been automatic GOP votes in the Midterm. That's a big part of the story as I see it... Softer disapprovers of POTUS, made up a lot by younger voters and suburban voters one presumes, still showed and voted for Dem candidates in higher numbers than the conventional wisdom suggested going into the election

This is spot on. Elite conservative messaging against Trump is a requirement for breaking the fever, but it very well may not be sufficient because of the voters and how their preferences may differ.

Taking this with a grain of salt, but if Frisch somehow does come back and win, Dems may end up slightly favorites to have a majority lol

Arizona is starting to look like a disaster for Rs...

Kelly wins... and Lake is on very thin ice

Masto has it in range

Uhh, game over

One of those seats that seems to be in the R column at the moment

His mantra was "Every County, Every Vote"... and that is what Democratic candidates should be doing in all elections.

Georgia, Michigan and Nevada seem like the sweet spot for first three... it's a nice cross section of voters that the Dems consider important demographically (ie. black, Midwest working class, Hispanic)

Switch out "Pennsylvania and Colorado" with "Nevada and Michigan", and I would agree. The biggest reason is size... PA with 19 EC Votes along with Colorado at 10 EC votes means they combined are probably too big and would likely hurt the competitiveness of the primary by slanting the field to whoever would win both of those. Michigan is borderline too large, but Nevada is still a smaller state and checks all the boxes in terms of competitiveness, diversity, etc.