Polling does matter this early on insofar that it guides the parties in terms of how they choose to spend campaign money. Pennsylvania is a great example... Josh Shapiro has a 10-1 cash advantage in the Govs race versus Mastriano. Thus far, the RGA (Republican Governor's Association) hasn't invested much, if at all, into the race. They probably have internal polls that are more accurate, but while the fact that they aren't weighing in has some to do with Mastriano being a morally awful candidate, some of it probably does reflect that he is doing poorly in H2H matchups as well.
And the money thing matters... cash can have diminishing returns to a point, but a 10-1 cash advantage is hard to work at this early point when you are a relative unknown in a statewide race, it allows your opponent to define you.
Oz, despite being a more well known figure, is in a similar boat as well... and both of them are at risk of not being able to recover from being defined early.