With regard to the pundits, it's worth remembering that 365 days ago, Beau Brieske wasn't ranked. I believe he showed up on Pipeline when they did a midyear rank.
It's not even that the pundits got Brieske wrong from the beginning per se, but the lists are only updated a few times per year and a lot of guys can move up or down whenever a rerank is done.
Not saying that will happen in Carpenter's case, but rather that the next lists that get published could say a lot about where the pundits fall.