mtutiger

Another theory too is that, because of COVID and because so many people were impacted / stuck inside during that period, raised the salience of politics a lot more in people's lives and drove insane turnout that is likely not to be replicated on either side in 2024. I would be shocked if either side turns out as much as they did in 2020, so setting aside persuasion (it does matter to a degree) and registering new voters, the ballgame comes down turning out / motivating as many 2020 voters as possible to get back out again in 2024. On that front, there's more work to be done, but I think that Harris is on the right track from what I can see

He was drawing really huge crowds in 2020 though, especially given COVID going on. My own sense is that between the crowd size, tepid grassroots fundraising and just the overall muted signs of his support driving around (living in a relatively red area, albeit in a blue state), the energy isn't really where it has been in past cycles. Even just discussing with some more conservative folks in my life, I get a sense of exhaustion as well. It doesn't mean he cannot win, but I'm also not going to pretend to not see what is readily apparent either.

Something to keep an eye on... The big prize for Trump is that he'll be off in PA, but he's probably still going to be on the ballot in some of the other states

Came here to post this... Just amazing stuff

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cc: Peggy Noonan

Couldn't imagine why... Woof

The thing with this endorsement from Trump's perspective is that the share that RFK seems to be taking from him (probably around 0.5% nationally) is only one angle to look at it; the other angle is that RFK is a nutjob whose views do not align well with a lot of middle of the road / swing voters, and Trump further associating himself on that front probably isn't all that helpful. All to say that it's not without zero risk and sort of reeks of desperation. Ultimately doubt any of this matters much in the end though.... especially once Biden dropped out, it was clear that this was going to be all about the top of the ticket.

This is a really good point... He's still gonna be on the ballot in at least three swing states (WI, NV, NC)

Freaks of a feather.... flock together.

I don't know how much you can glean from those numbers, but at the very least it seems like even more evidence that NC is firmly in play

Not enough Vitamin C in the world to fix those lines lol

To the latter part of her point - Kamala is able to get away with it in part because even though Biden has served as President for the last 3.5 years, this era (from Summer 2015 to now) has been singularly defined by one individual - Donald J. Trump. Like, when historians look back at this era (hopefully ending this year), he's going to be the one person we all remember (not Biden or HRC or Bernie Sanders or whoever). So of course she's the change candidate.... for people who want this era to end (and there are a lot of them - Trump is still not a popular figure), she's the person left in the race who can make that happen. Certainly in a way Biden never could. It's so obvious, yet these commentators who act confused that a sitting VP can make a "change" argument always seem to want to avoid it.

September it is

For sure.... not on Weigel but rather that NY Post reporter, the content is just so disingenuous. And for reasons that are no-doubt motivated, inflates RFK's importance at this juncture or the leverage that he would have with a D Party that he went out of his way to **** on the entire election up to this point. Not to mention the incompatibility of many of RFK's nutty beliefs

Kinzinger, along with Geoff Duncan, John Giles, Stephanie Grisham on previous nights, were more for people outside the hall versus inside the hall. He's not the most dynamic speaker in the world, but the content of his speech was pretty potent IMO

Didn't see in real time, but reportedly said she wasn't ready / didn't have the experience to be POTUS

Given how the entire premise of RFK's candidacy was to take a big giant **** on the Democratic Party, it shouldn't be mystifying why they didn't give him much respect or listen to his pitch lol

You lay in bed with the dogs (as they have for years), you get the fleas, buddy

One thing that is so striking about where we are, eight years into Trump era, is how much the GOP has ceded patriotism to the Democrats. The politics are more on the center left, but rhetoric and imagery of this convention could have easily been seen in a different era at a GOP Convention. Of course, the GOP will go through the motions, throw around terms like "socialism" and even "communism", but it's never looked so much like a non-sequitur than it does now.

The bar was set really high... Tons of good speeches, especially the Obamas. And she cleared it and thensome

Thought exercise: Let's say George W. Bush isn't the mystery guest tonight, but at a later date issues a statement endorsing Kamala Harris. Do you think it is an obligation of Kamala Harris to publicly rebuke Bush and decline his endorsement?