I'd say there is a 94% chance Skubal starts 2026 with the Tigers. The Mets aren't trading McLean, and I believe that's the type of talent Harris will need. If the Tigers are out of contention at the deadline he likely gets traded.
As for Harris, imho he had done an excellent job establishing his vision of a culture and it's taking shape. They were an inch from the ALCS.
I don't know how Harris is as a negotiator for trades or FA, although he seemed to do fine with Flaherty. For all the buzz, I expect a relatively low key off season. Maybe a splurge on someone like Cease, bringing back Finnegan and another BP arm or 2. Maybe a 1-yr deal for JV, although I expect him back in SF. Probably another 1-yr to a project SP.