Investing

[romad1]

I feel like AI shenanigans deserve their own thread.  There is just so much of this stuff out there about its failings and people overweighting it as the next step in our evolution.  

[gehringer_2]

21 hours ago, Screwball said:

I thought this was funny.  Might also be partially true.

https://x.com/CramerTracker/status/1990823529839788217

Won't link for some reason. The Tweet is from Inverse Jim Cramer and it a parody account. It says;

Not to be overdramatic but if Nvidia misses earnings tomorrow we’re going extinct btw

One not to bright sign about NVidia - their SW people have been screwing up recently. Now I'll state upfront it's a totally insignificant part of the overall business, but I hate to see lack of attention to detail anywhere in an org. The last release of their Linux drivers had to be pulled back for some pretty basic QC misses. Gamers also complain they have fallen behind AMD in the SW implementations of some of the better features of their cards.

Edited Wednesday at 02:30 PM by gehringer_2

[romad1]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

I feel like AI shenanigans deserve their own thread.  There is just so much of this stuff out there about its failings and people overweighting it as the next step in our evolution.  

E.G, 

Quote

One thing I’ve been tracking this year is the areas where Wall Street and Silicon Valley are going to war. Tech firms clearly want to become banking apps and receive special charters, private equity and crypto are jostling for position in worker 401(k) plans, and the tech right in general wants to supplant big banks as the go-to director of conservative business policy.

That’s all still going on. But in one area, Silicon Valley and Wall Street are in sync: conjuring up sketchy credit deals that are pointing us toward another financial crash.

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:53 PM by romad1

[Screwball]

 

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

I feel like AI shenanigans deserve their own thread.  There is just so much of this stuff out there about its failings and people overweighting it as the next step in our evolution.  

Maybe if you didn't have half the people on this board on ignore you would know AI has been talked about in this thread going back at least 10 pages. Try to keep up Gomer.

[romad1]

13 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Maybe if you didn't have half the people on this board on ignore you would know AI has been talked about in this thread going back at least 10 pages. Try to keep up Gomer.

Maybe.  Good to know.  I consider the Investing thread more about your ilk's predations on my retirement savings instead of your ilk's predations on my rights and the future of civilization. 

[Screwball]

Today was NVDA day. NVDA is the market, and this current blimp size bubble big money has blown. NVDA is the the head of steamship of the MAGS as they are known. As NVDA goes, the market goes. Their market cap is equivalent to around 17% of our GDP. They reported earning after the market closed today. As it turns out it wasn't really too eventful. A little chart porn.

First is a 9 month showing NVDA price action.

What I thought would be fun is to see how it reacted after hours when they reported and the conference call. It didn't do too much all day, but after hours it got a little goofy. The big jump was when earning numbers hit. Then it drifted a little higher. The crazy part is the 4 huge moves after hours shown by the long lower candle tails. What's going on one wonders?

 

 

 

 

[Deleterious]

Visualization of what Screwball just said about Nvidia being the leader.

 

[Screwball]

More chart porn. This is today's chart of the MAGS, the ETF that is made up of the following companies; Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

3 month chart. Yellow arrow shows the gap it created today at open. This gap will at some point, close.

 

[ewsieg]

My company was hit with layoffs today.  My team escaped any hit, but the news is reporting about 17% of our non-union workforce was affected. 

We knew it was coming and read that October had more companies submit WARN notices in a month since 2003.  

I re-balanced my 401k to be heavier on the bond side once I got off of my 'all clear' meeting.  I think the AI bubble will keep the stock market up for a bit still, but you can't outrun unemployment and I feel like that's going to hit before the AI bubble does.  

Edited Thursday at 06:06 PM by ewsieg

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, Screwball said:

More chart porn. This is today's chart of the MAGS, the ETF that is made up of the following companies; Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

3 month chart. Yellow arrow shows the gap it created today at open. This gap will at some point, close.

 

That didn't take long. Mr. Market started out good, but has now given it all back and then some. This is the same chart. The gap has already filled.

 

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

My company was hit with layoffs today.  My team escaped any hit, but the news is reporting about 17% of our non-union workforce was affected. 

We knew it was coming and read that October had more companies submit WARN notices in a month since 2003.  

I re-balanced my 401k to be heavier on the bond side once I got off of my 'all clear' meeting.  I think the AI bubble will keep the stock market up for a bit still, but you can't outrun unemployment and I feel like that's going to hit before the AI bubble does.  

If I am allowed to be nosy, did they give any reasons for the layoffs? I would be curious of what the company said, and what the reasons are according to the employees. 

People are the easiest and quickest way to help the bottom line. Reducing people saves money and they don't care about much else. You can now do someone else's job along with yours. Your welcome, or your next.

I went through this in 2017. They laid off hundreds then announced a mutimillion dollar expansion. Imagine that.

[ewsieg]

8 minutes ago, Screwball said:

If I am allowed to be nosy, did they give any reasons for the layoffs? I would be curious of what the company said, and what the reasons are according to the employees. 

People are the easiest and quickest way to help the bottom line. Reducing people saves money and they don't care about much else. You can now do someone else's job along with yours. Your welcome, or your next.

I went through this in 2017. They laid off hundreds then announced a mutimillion dollar expansion. Imagine that.

We're a big company, so while we do have a large acquisition going on right now, this specifically was done for cost cutting purposes only.  We were specifically told none of these jobs were lost to AI, simply we needed to get leaner and meaner.

[Deleterious]

 

[Screwball]

4 hours ago, ewsieg said:

We're a big company, so while we do have a large acquisition going on right now, this specifically was done for cost cutting purposes only.  We were specifically told none of these jobs were lost to AI, simply we needed to get leaner and meaner.

It's always about the bottom line. What makes it so difficult is being the henchmen who are forced to carry it out. Then, the poor foot soldiers who keep the trains running on time get hammered with more work. Sorry kids, I have miss your ballgame because deadline... Until they are next, and they will be. The below picture tells the story, except the stock went up 17% that day. Cha-ching.

 

[Screwball]

Latest S&P chart after close today. Watching that big red candle back to 10/10 and the lower support level. What do we have here Alice?

We have a little peaky under that $6550.78, at close. Futures has recovered some. 

[chasfh]

On 11/4/2025 at 4:09 PM, chasfh said:

Speaking of my reprehensible stock: it came within a dollar of triggering the first trailing stop limit sell order today.

I set the triggers at 11%, 16%, 21%, 26%, 31%, and 36% versus the high price since I placed the orders last week. If the stock ever drops 36% from its high, I will be out completely. Considering the meme nature of the stock, that's probably not unlikely. (It might seem stupid to set a trailing stop at 36%, but even once that one triggers, I will still have bagged something like a 15x gain alone on that lot.)

But you may have noticed that I set the triggers on the ones and sixes and not on the zeroes and fives. I did so purposely to evade the algorithms that sell off en masse until the drop reaches a certain percentage from its high, at which point they turn around and start buying it back en masse.

It happened a few months ago when the stock dropped from its high 25.0% practically on the dot, then immediately turned around and it's been above that level ever since.

The turnaround wasn't quite that precise today—the stock dropped 10.5% from its high before turning around—but instead of selling because I had it trailing stop at 10%, it held because I had the trailing stop at 11%.

So now I have a chance to enjoy a run up above the current high price the triggers are pegged to, if it happens. And if it doesn't, the stock will sell off at the exact same level I have it at right now once the price drops past it.

 

 

Update: the first three trailing stop limit sells have triggered, and we’re pretty close to the fourth one, which might happen today.

I also have a 6% trailing stop sell on VOO that would sell 10% of my position in it. Given how much the mag seven makes up the index, once that bubble bursts, that’s coming down a bunch, too. Might as well clear some profits up here at the top.

[Edman85]

I think I found this link on Bogleheads...

 

https://personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Update: the first three trailing stop limit sells have triggered, and we’re pretty close to the fourth one, which might happen today.

I also have a 6% trailing stop sell on VOO that would sell 10% of my position in it. Given how much the mag seven makes up the index, once that bubble bursts, that’s coming down a bunch, too. Might as well clear some profits up here at the top.

And another lot just sold today!

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I think I found this link on Bogleheads...

 

https://personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

I don't know what that's suppose to prove or it's purpose. It has no relationship to how one should read a market, the technicals of said market, or anything related to informed trading.

[Edman85]

It kinda proves that timing the market is a fool's errand.

[Screwball]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

It kinda proves that timing the market is a fool's errand.

It kinda doesn't really prove ****. Other than the suckers who don't know what the hell they are talking about.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I think I found this link on Bogleheads...

 

https://personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

that game is a bit rigged. If you sell out of equities and go into bonds you will do better than 1%. Nobody has to leave  their stock sales proceeds sitting at 1% yield.

That said, I wouldn't advise anyone to try and out-anticipate the market as a short term investment strategy, but that's not quite the same thing as deciding that longer term you are overall  over (or under) exposed to stocks at a point in history.

Edited 10 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

that game is a bit rigged. If you sell out of equities and go into bonds you will do better than 1%. Nobody has to leave  their stock sales proceeds sitting at 1% yield.

That said, I wouldn't advise anyone to try and out-anticipate the market as a short term investment strategy, but that's not quite the same thing as deciding that longer term you are overall  over (or under) exposed to stocks at a point in history.

They have courses to teach you. Here is one of them:

10 five minute videos to teach you what stocks to buy. Outstanding. Too bad some of the guy who spent years learning the markets, how to read balance sheets, technical analysis, and how to manage a portfolio didn't get this deal.

[Edman85]

I don't necessarily endorse anything else on that site... I just like the market timing exercise. It generally doesn't pay off.