Investing

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I don't necessarily endorse anything else on that site... I just like the market timing exercise. It generally doesn't pay off.

If you are 40 you can probably always hold and wait out wait the downturns, and in recent decades the downturns have been sharp but short, so holding on through those wasn't terrible either, but if we were to get into a period of sustained upward creep in inflation, an older investor might not out live the kind of long downturn we had in the late 60's-70's when for years inflation creep just keep hammering down stocks. So there is never a one-size fits all answer.

If there is one piece of wisdom, it's that the herd tends to be driven by the (relatively) young who haven't lived through any history and there is always a (too) wide belief in the broad market that everything always was and always will be the way it has been for less than the last ten years. 🤔

Edited Friday at 11:30 PM by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

59 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If you are 40 you can probably always hold and wait out wait the downturns, and in recent decades the downturns have been sharp but short, so holding on through those wasn't terrible either, but if we were to get into a period of sustained upward creep in inflation, an older investor might not out live the kind of long downturn we had in the late 60's-70's when for years inflation creep just keep hammering down stocks. So there is never a one-size fits all answer.

If there is one piece of wisdom, it's that the herd tends to be driven by the (relatively) young who haven't lived through any history and there is always a (too) wide belief in the broad market that everything always was and always will be the way it has been for less than the last ten years. 🤔

Invest in bonds and money market anyways, independent of the downturns. I've already started to reposition in that direction, being 17ish years from retirement (But not nearly as heavy as many recommend). Trying to time the market though is a different deal and normally self defeating.

[Screwball]

This is one of the great conversations on the markets. How do you play them, how do you invest? It's the biggest casino in the world, and even more punitive. Let's look at some chart porn just for fun. This is as far back as my software can go. A chart of the S&P going back to around 1930. It is obvious, that over all those years (almost 100) the candles go from the bottom left to the top right. That's a good thing. 

That also makes a case that you put your money in and it goes up and up and up. Sure looks like it. How old are you? When are you planning on retiring, with enough money to live the life you want to live, and how much does that need to be? Sure, I have a 401k, I'll be fine. That's what my Edward Jones guy tells me, or my personal banker.

Below is the chart porn from 1930. The yellow circle is from around 1990 to 2013ish.

As you can see the run-up from the 30s until the Dot-com bubble blew up it was as good as it gets. The greatest bull market in history. If you became working age around 1940 and invested you made a killing. The next chart gets us a little closer to today.

 

The great bull market ended on March 1, 2000 and peaked at $1552.87. By the week of October 10, 2002, it was at 768.63. We then went another 5 years to the week of October 10, 2007 when it took another ****. Isn't that wild? So from October it went from 1550 to 666. You can do the math. Same with the first one.

Now look at it. Up and to the right. How long you think that is going to go on? Timing matters. There isn't much anyone can do about it, you are stuck with what is available, and most importantly, how old you are. Some are lucky, and some aren't. I know people from both crashes that had to work more years because they lost their ass in their 401ks.

Edited Saturday at 01:45 AM by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Screwball said:

This is one of the great conversations on the markets. How do you play them, how do you invest? It's the biggest casino in the world, and even more punitive. Let's look at some chart porn just for fun. This is as far back as my software can go. A chart of the S&P going back to around 1930. It is obvious, that over all those years (almost 100) the candles go from the bottom left to the top right. That's a good thing. 

That also makes a case that you put your money in and it goes up and up and up. Sure looks like it. How old are you? When are you planning on retiring, with enough money to live the life you want to live, and how much does that need to be? Sure, I have a 401k, I'll be fine. That's what my Edward Jones guy tells me, or my personal banker.

Below is the chart porn from 1930. The yellow circle is from around 1990 to 2013ish.

As you can see the run-up from the 30s until the Dot-com bubble blew up it was as good as it gets. The greatest bull market in history. If you became working age after 1940 and invested you made a killing. The next chart gets us a little closer to today.

 

The great bull market ended on March 1, 2000 and peaked at $1552.87. By the week of October 10, 2002, it was at 768.63. We then went another 5 years to the week of October 10, 2007 when it took another ****. Isn't that wild? So from October it went from 1550 to 666. You can do the math. Same with the first one.

Now look at it. Up and to the right. How long you think that is going to go on? Timing matters. There isn't much anyone can do about it, you are stuck with what is available, and most importantly, how old you are. Some are lucky, and some aren't. I know people from both crashes that had to work more years because they lost their ass in their 401ks.

it's sort of funny how much 65-75 looks like 2000-2009 -- same bactrian camel over almost the same time span.

[Screwball]

When the banksters blew up the world in 2008/2009 the market went from 1550 to 666. A loss of 57% in five months. You need 133% to get it back. How long is that going to take? 

[Screwball]

31 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's sort of funny how much 65-75 looks like 2000-2009 -- same bactrian camel over almost the same time span.

That's why this looks nuts. Since the March 2009 low to where we are today, the market (S&P) has went up 939%. Annual return (CAGR) is over 15%. They put Bernie Madoff in jail for promising 13.

[Edman85]

14 hours ago, Screwball said:

When the banksters blew up the world in 2008/2009 the market went from 1550 to 666. A loss of 57% in five months. You need 133% to get it back. How long is that going to take? 

In my case, at 40, somebody fully invested in the market at that age would be fully recovered by now in their late 50's, especially after being able to buy low with new investments on the way back up.

Regardless, if that is a risk you are afraid of, just be in bonds/money market/etc. My point is timing when to jump off is foolhardy.

[Screwball]

7 hours ago, Edman85 said:

In my case, at 40, somebody fully invested in the market at that age would be fully recovered by now in their late 50's, especially after being able to buy low with new investments on the way back up.

Regardless, if that is a risk you are afraid of, just be in bonds/money market/etc. My point is timing when to jump off is foolhardy.

This is where we disagree. Timing is everything. The math is indisputable. Wall Street banks make billions of dollars because of timing the markets every quarter proven by their earnings release.

That said, that doesn't necessarily apply to us. Most of us don't have the ability to manage the money we contribute to our retirement account, whatever flavor they may be, and take advantage of the market if what they they call "fiduciary duty"  was what it should be. 

The guy you are sitting across the table at your local Edward Jones spent $75 to pass a test and now gives you lifetime investment advice. How ****ed up is that?

Nothing in the world is more corrupt that Wall Street and the money behind them. 

It's a dog eat dog world and we are wearing dogbone underwear.

 

[Screwball]

Example; the last big ticker I worked for had Vanguard. I liked them, Jack Bogle, and their thesis on investing.

The problem was, I could only change it every 3 months. I was probably one of few who cared about that. If you didn't change your positions each quarter, they would put it all in their stock. Don't want that.

Some of the guys there were buying the snot out of our stock because it was going up like a rocket. While they where doing this, and you did your homework, the top 10 executives who must report buy/sell had been selling the **** out of it. Ding, ding, ding.

In March when they reported earning the stock shot up over $200 bucks. A month later it hit $211. Everybody was happy as a bunch of pigs in the mud. Until they weren't. Mid July, it was $142.

Edited Sunday at 02:25 AM by Screwball

[chasfh]

On 11/21/2025 at 6:20 PM, Edman85 said:

Invest in bonds and money market anyways, independent of the downturns. I've already started to reposition in that direction, being 17ish years from retirement (But not nearly as heavy as many recommend). Trying to time the market though is a different deal and normally self defeating.

You’re still young enough to do 70/30, at least. I’m around 60/40 equity to fixed and I’m already retired.

[chasfh]

20 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Regardless, if that is a risk you are afraid of, just be in bonds/money market/etc. My point is timing when to jump off is foolhardy.

12 hours ago, Screwball said:

This is where we disagree. Timing is everything. The math is indisputable. Wall Street banks make billions of dollars because of timing the markets every quarter proven by their earnings release.

That said, that doesn't necessarily apply to us.

We may or may not be able to time the market, but the time feels right to take some overheated profits from Mag Seven-driven SP 500.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

You’re still young enough to do 70/30, at least. I’m around 60/40 equity to fixed and I’m already retired.

Beyond what I've set aside as money market reserves, I think I'm something like 95/5. Basically, there's enough time for any losses to rebound, and in the long run equities grow more than bonds. It's a math/okay with the risk play.

Any moves toward bonds/money market in the taxable portfolio have more to do with the uncertainty of federal employment that has increased in a big way this year and the increased need for extra emergency reserves. Nothing to do with trying to parse/time the market. I did take the time to rebalance the taxable account in April during the dip though. That was less timing, more getting out of a fund whose expenses were high at a time where taxes could be deferred.

[Screwball]

Interesting look at the costs of living put in different terms. In the end I think he's naive about the solution, if that's what he thinks it is, but interesting just the same.

It Works, If You Work It. For our economy to provide a nice life for all we will need structural reform. How bad is it? This bad.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Interesting look at the costs of living put in different terms. In the end I think he's naive about the solution, if that's what he thinks it is, but interesting just the same.

It Works, If You Work It. For our economy to provide a nice life for all we will need structural reform. How bad is it? This bad.

+1000

There is a so much truth to this analysis. We had a thread here a while back where we thrashed out how the cost of a college degree has increased wrt the ability of a student to pay for it while working. There is no doubt that the indexes have been skewed by the falling price of technology items, but he has a powerful point that while we do spend a lot on tech items and thus do receive value back from those purchases, they are not the 'essential' quality of life values of housing, health, food and education. Cost of living calcs give the economy a lot of credit for my 55" 4K flat screen replacing the 1950 12" RCA I recently posted a pic of, but what has that really done for my life except help drive me into more social isolation sitting in front of it? We've had washing machines for 100 years, they are suddenly miles more sophisticated than they used to be - in that sense they are more valuable, but are our clothes any cleaner for all that?

The payoff to tech has been for business. Profitability there has soared due to tech driven increases in production efficiency, and that does have a legitimate value that needs to be captured somewhere, but it can't be the only thing we capture and right now officially it is.

It's true everywhere, that we get what we measure. So as much as we moan and groan about the bureaucracy, having one that works right, that measures and produces the data that can drive better political debate, is still a critical thing for a democracy to survive.

Edited 22 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

+1000

There is a so much truth to this analysis. We had a thread here a while back where we thrashed out how the cost of a college degree has increased wrt the ability of a student to pay for it while working. There is no doubt that the indexes have been skewed by the falling price of technology items, but he has a powerful point that while we do spend a lot on tech items and thus do receive value back from those purchases, they are not the 'essential' quality of life values of housing, health, food and education. Cost of living calcs give the economy a lot of credit for my 55" 4K flat screen replacing the 1950 12" RCA I recently posted a pic of, but what has that really done for my life except help drive me into more social isolation sitting in front of it? We've had washing machines for 100 years, they are suddenly miles more sophisticated than they used to be - in that sense they are more valuable, but are our clothes any cleaner for all that?

The payoff to tech has been for business. Profitability there has soared due to tech driven increases in production efficiency, and that does have a legitimate value that needs to be captured somewhere, but it can't be the only thing we capture and right now officially it is.

It's true everywhere, that we get what we measure. So as much as we moan and groan about the bureaucracy, having one that works right, that measures and produces the data that can drive better political debate, is still a critical thing for a democracy to survive.

It is all fixable, but they don't want to deal with it, so it will continue to get worse until it fixes itself. That will be the great deleveraging, deflation, and demand destruction. The alternative to that is a planned deleveraging, but nobody wants to be blamed for the pain, so nothing will happen. We can see this over our lifetimes.

Carlin was right in 1991 with The American Dream - you have to be asleep to believe it. That was 34 years ago. About a half a generation.

[oblong]

I saw a blip about CNBC complaining that we were "Hoarding our phones" longer than usual and that's bad.  It was a picture of a story, not a link, so I have no idea if it's what they said.  But I know it's what they are thinking.

The average length of time people keep their phones is 27 months.  That's absurd.  I've had 2 in 10 years and this one now is still going strong.

We've just accepted hundreds of dollars a month in fees to entertain ourselves. I'm guilty of it.  Plus overpaying for things like DoorDash.  Someone was complaining on FB about the cost of his Subway being so high.  I checked online near him and he paid 40% more because he had it delivered.

 

 

 

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

The average length of time people keep their phones is 27 months.  That's absurd.  I've had 2 in 10 years and this one now is still going strong

Batteries are getting better and for many when batteries become a problem, they are more apt to replace the battery as the phone itself still works well.

Edited 20 hours ago by ewsieg

[Screwball]

47 minutes ago, oblong said:

I saw a blip about CNBC complaining that we were "Hoarding our phones" longer than usual and that's bad.  It was a picture of a story, not a link, so I have no idea if it's what they said.  But I know it's what they are thinking.

The average length of time people keep their phones is 27 months.  That's absurd.  I've had 2 in 10 years and this one now is still going strong.

We've just accepted hundreds of dollars a month in fees to entertain ourselves. I'm guilty of it.  Plus overpaying for things like DoorDash.  Someone was complaining on FB about the cost of his Subway being so high.  I checked online near him and he paid 40% more because he had it delivered.

 

 

 

Americans are holding onto devices longer than ever and it’s costing the economy

That's the one you were talking about. I started reading it the other day and gave up. It is from CNBC also known as Bubblevision. 

[Screwball]

I have a stack of old phones. I go through one every couple of years. Not because there is anything wrong with it but because I broke it in some way - like sitting on it - or dropping it.

This one was the best. I was rewiring my furnace so I have a way to plug it into an electrical outlet hooked to an inverter so I can run it if I lose power - emergency situation only.

Not far from my furnace is a drain. A simple 4 inch drain in the basement floor with a little grate on top. I had the grate off because I have plugs I put in there to keep the water backing up from the sewer (during spring raining season). For some reason I had the grate off (and no plug), not sure why.

While working on my furnace, my phone slipped out of my pocket, bounced nicely a couple of times and disappeared down the drain, which of course is full of water. Nice! I got it out, but since it took a swim...

This is why I buy cheap phones.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I have a stack of old phones. I go through one every couple of years. Not because there is anything wrong with it but because I broke it in some way - like sitting on it - or dropping it.

This one was the best. I was rewiring my furnace so I have a way to plug it into an electrical outlet hooked to an inverter so I can run it if I lose power - emergency situation only.

Not far from my furnace is a drain. A simple 4 inch drain in the basement floor with a little grate on top. I had the grate off because I have plugs I put in there to keep the water backing up from the sewer (during spring raining season). For some reason I had the grate off (and no plug), not sure why.

While working on my furnace, my phone slipped out of my pocket, bounced nicely a couple of times and disappeared down the drain, which of course is full of water. Nice! I got it out, but since it took a swim...

This is why I buy cheap phones.

LOL. My worst one was at Toledo refinery. I had a Samsung flip that I really loved. Early days of the network - it did messaging and I thought that was hog heaven. So for some reason I had it out - and had put it back in the breast pocket of may Nomex jumper instead back into a pants pocket. I walk over to one of the cooling towers (which were part of our responsibility) and leaned over a sump that had about 4,000gpm of water  surging through it to check it's level and down went the phone. No-one could even hear me curse over the roar of the water - which somehow made it worse.  🌊

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I saw a blip about CNBC complaining that we were "Hoarding our phones" longer than usual and that's bad.  It was a picture of a story, not a link, so I have no idea if it's what they said.  But I know it's what they are thinking.

The average length of time people keep their phones is 27 months.  That's absurd.  I've had 2 in 10 years and this one now is still going strong.

We've just accepted hundreds of dollars a month in fees to entertain ourselves. I'm guilty of it.  Plus overpaying for things like DoorDash.  Someone was complaining on FB about the cost of his Subway being so high.  I checked online near him and he paid 40% more because he had it delivered.

 

 

 

My Amex Gold comes with a 10 dollar monthly Uber or DoorDash discount. I comparison shopped a meal for one on it earlier this year, and it was about a wash for a taco dinner once you factor in delivery fees and mark-up.

[Screwball]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL. My worst one was at Toledo refinery. I had a Samsung flip that I really loved. Early days of the network - it did messaging and I thought that was hog heaven. So for some reason I had it out - and had put it back in the breast pocket of may Nomex jumper instead back into a pants pocket. I walk over to one of the cooling towers (which were part of our responsibility) and leaned over a sump that had about 4,000gpm of water  surging through it to check it's level and down went the phone. No-one could even hear me curse over the roar of the water - which somehow made it worse.  🌊

I can feel the pain, and with something like that you know there is no way.

It looks corny to have a lanyard so us old and stupid people don't lose our phones. 🙂

[Screwball]

And think of CNBC, otherwise known as Bubblevision. They still put Jim Cramer in front of a TV camera.

The best in business TV they used to say. 

[Screwball]

The latest S&P chart porn. Up and down. Wall Street is making a killing. Not sure what's it's so happy about the last few days. The support/resistance is getting tested. Wall Street will go on stop hunts and **** the day traders.