Investing

[Screwball]

13 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The most important part of today’s report were the 2025 revisions.   

584,000 jobs gained were reported for the year.   The revisions today has it at 181,000.  403,00 jobs that were reported but never existed

That is a misstatement by 69%

What’s scarier is that sinceI don’t trust these numbers, it’s probably much, much worse.  

Either way, why does our financial system continue to put trust in these numbers.   Who would put trust and use an indicator that had only 30% accuracy?  This is insane but then again these markets have always been rigged.  This is yet another tool meant to confuse and deceive.  

Wall Street knows the numbers. There are other ways to figure them out. This guy touches on it in his article today; BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs

FTA:

Quote

 

For January 2026, the BLS did report a gain of 130,000. That’s highly likely to be revised lower a year from now in the next annual revision.

The BLS needs to look at actual tax data instead of flawed sampling coupled with an even more flawed Birth Death model. I have been meaning to write up a specific proposal and will do so.

 

A big Wall Street bank analyst makes more money than the CEO's of the companies he covers, or sector. The ARE the smartest guys in the room and have data we don't. They don't get fooled.

The rest is up for debate for us serfs. It's been like this since forever.  

[Screwball]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

My dad was climbing ladders into his 80s even with a couple of bad falls.  I had to take away all his ladders which really irritated him.  It was easier to get him to stop driving.    He did live to 99 though.  

I know guys that age who do as well. It only takes one opps. Buddy of mine was trimming trees into his late 70s. One day fell. 6 months later he was in a box.

Edited 5 hours ago by Screwball

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I know guys that age who do as well. It only takes one opps. Buddy of mine was trimming trees into his late 70s. One day fell. 6 months later he was in a box.

My father fell the week after he went on blood thinners and his doctor specifically told him "no more climbing ladders".  He didn't listen.  That is when I took away his ladders.  He thought he was invincible until the end.    

[Screwball]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

My father fell the week after he went on blood thinners and his doctor specifically told him "no more climbing ladders".  He didn't listen.  That is when I took away his ladders.  He thought he was invincible until the end.    

It is hard getting old and you find out you can't do things you once did. We don't want to face the truth so we keep trying. It's even tougher on the families who have to deal with this. They are trying to keep them safe for their own good, but they don't want to listen. At some point there are tough decisions that have to be made - taking away the car keys - time to get them into assisted living or a rest home. We will all face these things as we get older and those who have to care for us - if one is lucky enough to have someone care for them.

That's if you have all your mental capabilities. For those who are dealing with someone with dementia or similar - it gets a lot more difficult and complicated. One of my bartenders who is 60 has a mom like that. She calls her in the middle of the night scared out of her mind because there is a strange guy in the house - it's her husband.

Getting old is no fun for anyone. But it's part of life - and death. Wait until you have conversations with other old people about the various ways to commit suicide because they are going to do it "their way."

Jack Kevorkian had a point. When your quality of life becomes bad enough, what's the point?

[CMRivdogs]

16 minutes ago, Screwball said:

 

Jack Kevorkian had a point. When your quality of life becomes bad enough, what's the point?

I had a conversation about 15 years ago with a hospice nurse shortly after we placed my dad in hospice care. He had end stage COPD. He was then given a "button" to control his own morphine. During his first drug coma, I commented that we seem to treat our pets better than our humans at times.

I was diagnosed with ILD/IPF about 5 years ago. Still functioning fairly normally, though I get out of breath with exertion. Most of the stats are still close to what they were after the original diagnoses. That conversation still stays with me when I think about the future and my options

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Be careful what you wish for.  People being out of work is not a good thing for anyone.  

They will bounce back. College educated and all. 

[oblong]

My dad had quintuple bypass surgery 17 years ago this week.  He was 80 at the time. A few months later my mom called to say that he fell outside but he's ok.  I asked the details and he was in the garage.  "What was he doing?"  "Moving some tarps"

Those tarps had probably not been moved in 3 or 4 years but.... he had to move them.

We're dealing with this with my MIL.  She'll admit to doing things she's not supposed to and luckily we're a mile away.  She was trying to shovel.  Luckily my wife called her right as she started and she always answers her phone.  She's 78, two bad knees.   Uses a cane.  But she didn't want to wait for the neighbor to do it b/c of the mailman.  It was like 2 inches of snow.  So I had to run over there to finish it.  The trick is determining when to let them be when they want to help.  She walks into our house and always runs to the sink to do the dishes.  She has to feel useful.  For Thanksgiving she started to cry because we didn't need her help with anything.  That's the real challenge as we age.  I want to tell her to just relax and watch the game, let us handle the kitchen.  But especially for a old Polish woman who grew up during an era when it was always the Buscias in the kitchen while the men drank beer and watched football.... that ain't the way it's supposed to be.

[Tiger337]

24 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

They will bounce back. College educated and all. 

Not what I was saying at all, but this belongs in another thread.  

Edited 3 hours ago by Tiger337

[Tigeraholic1]

24 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not what I was saying at all, but this belongs in another thread.  

You are right, everybody is talking about ladders in this thread lol.

Edited 3 hours ago by Tigeraholic1

[Screwball]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

I had a conversation about 15 years ago with a hospice nurse shortly after we placed my dad in hospice care. He had end stage COPD. He was then given a "button" to control his own morphine. During his first drug coma, I commented that we seem to treat our pets better than our humans at times.

I was diagnosed with ILD/IPF about 5 years ago. Still functioning fairly normally, though I get out of breath with exertion. Most of the stats are still close to what they were after the original diagnoses. That conversation still stays with me when I think about the future and my options

Hospice...the memories... They do great work around here, but when you are dealing with them it's not pretty.

Another bad part of this. I hate to hijack the thread and this is off topic anyway, but I feel like this is a public service thing, and a warning to other people, so I will.

I will use my mom. She had a terminal disease. She was on oxygen but could get around and do some things, but that eventually went away. I moved in with her for her last two years to help take care of her. I was in the position to do that at the time (dad was already gone) so it was a good thing. She was in and out of the hospital more than once. After one trip they put her in a nursing home for a period of time because she needed that much help. Covered by insurance (100 days) as long as it was a "skilled care" facility. 

She was in there for 32 days. I went everyday after work. On day 32 when I went in her room she was crying and clearly highly upset. What's wrong? Somebody from the rest home came in her room and told her the bill hasn't been paid, and if it wasn't paid right now they were going to kick her out. WHAT?

I told her that was a bunch of BS, and if they did that I would friken own the damn place. She was mad at me, and told me to go straight home and write a check (over 3 grand). OK, I'll take care of it. I took the next day off work and first thing called the insurance people. The guy said "don't you dare pay that bill." This was her supplemental insurance company. They said they get the data right from Medicare and do their part - and they did - this was paid. The guy said they are trying to double dip you. They were. To make a long story short, I went after the home and got the second in command fired over this. Good, **** you! She spent the rest of her time there with no incident, and they treated her like a Queen. Good, they got the point.

They weren't the only one. Maybe a year later she was back in the hospital. At this point nothing they could do for her. She knew it. As usual, when I stopped after work she said the doctor will be here at 6 and you are going take him out in the hall and tell him I want to go to (a particular nursing home) because they can't do anything for me and I'm ready to die. Just the conversation you want to have.

So the doc shows up and mom says "he wants to talk to you." I had POA so I was in charge. I took the doc in the hall and explained. He said no, we can help her. No, you can't. This is obvious and she knows it. He was on the board of the nursing home so all she needed was his signature. I finally told him this is what mom wants and if you don't do this, I will find someone that will. He agreed, but it pissed me off because all he wanted to do was soak her for more money like he had been doing. Bad experience #2.

Then there was the final rest home experience. Over 3000 a month for a room, while they pumped another 1200 dollars worth of drugs through this 90 pound women - for quite some time - before they brought in Hospice to help with her final days. I had said to my friends a few years before, they are going to string her along until she runs out of money and then they will let her die. That's exactly what they did. It was so obvious. That's our ****ing system.

She was always sharp mentally and still had a handle on her money, until she didn't have any. On her deathbed a few days before she passed she started crying and told me how sorry she was that there was no money to leave me. I didn't care, and that was OK, but she felt that way anyway.

Sorry for the rant but that stuff still pisses me off to this day. Horrible places, many not ran very well. I know people who work in the homes and the horror stories are off the charts. Understaffed, underpaid and over worked. The way our seniors are treated is criminal. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Hospice...the memories... They do great work around here, but when you are dealing with them it's not pretty.

Another bad part of this. I hate to hijack the thread and this is off topic anyway, but I feel like this is a public service thing, and a warning to other people, so I will.

I will use my mom. She had a terminal disease. She was on oxygen but could get around and do some things, but that eventually went away. I moved in with her for her last two years to help take care of her. I was in the position to do that at the time (dad was already gone) so it was a good thing. She was in and out of the hospital more than once. After one trip they put her in a nursing home for a period of time because she needed that much help. Covered by insurance (100 days) as long as it was a "skilled care" facility. 

She was in there for 32 days. I went everyday after work. On day 32 when I went in her room she was crying and clearly highly upset. What's wrong? Somebody from the rest home came in her room and told her the bill hasn't been paid, and if it wasn't paid right now they were going to kick her out. WHAT?

I told her that was a bunch of BS, and if they did that I would friken own the damn place. She was mad at me, and told me to go straight home and write a check (over 3 grand). OK, I'll take care of it. I took the next day off work and first thing called the insurance people. The guy said "don't you dare pay that bill." This was her supplemental insurance company. They said they get the data right from Medicare and do their part - and they did - this was paid. The guy said they are trying to double dip you. They were. To make a long story short, I went after the home and got the second in command fired over this. Good, **** you! She spent the rest of her time there with no incident, and they treated her like a Queen. Good, they got the point.

They weren't the only one. Maybe a year later she was back in the hospital. At this point nothing they could do for her. She knew it. As usual, when I stopped after work she said the doctor will be here at 6 and you are going take him out in the hall and tell him I want to go to (a particular nursing home) because they can't do anything for me and I'm ready to die. Just the conversation you want to have.

So the doc shows up and mom says "he wants to talk to you." I had POA so I was in charge. I took the doc in the hall and explained. He said no, we can help her. No, you can't. This is obvious and she knows it. He was on the board of the nursing home so all she needed was his signature. I finally told him this is what mom wants and if you don't do this, I will find someone that will. He agreed, but it pissed me off because all he wanted to do was soak her for more money like he had been doing. Bad experience #2.

Then there was the final rest home experience. Over 3000 a month for a room, while they pumped another 1200 dollars worth of drugs through this 90 pound women - for quite some time - before they brought in Hospice to help with her final days. I had said to my friends a few years before, they are going to string her along until she runs out of money and then they will let her die. That's exactly what they did. It was so obvious. That's our ****ing system.

She was always sharp mentally and still had a handle on her money, until she didn't have any. On her deathbed a few days before she passed she started crying and told me how sorry she was that there was no money to leave me. I didn't care, and that was OK, but she felt that way anyway.

Sorry for the rant but that stuff still pisses me off to this day. Horrible places, many not ran very well. I know people who work in the homes and the horror stories are off the charts. Understaffed, underpaid and over worked. The way our seniors are treated is criminal. 

My mom had advanced dementia for 9 years and my dad had heart failure for 17 years (although he did remarkably well and didn't suffer a lot).  I was in charge of their health care, especially for the last 9 years.  My mom was in a rehab place for a few months and was mostly neglected, so I pulled her out of there and took her home and vowed to never ley her go to another home.  The agency home health aides were ridiculously expensive (and the aides were not getting much of that money! It was all "administrative cots"), so I decided I would handle their health care privately and cheaply and at home where my parents would feel comfortable.  Since I was still working full-time, I hired live-in home health aides from Africa and Haiti for about 65k per year which is actually dirt cheap for dementia care where I live.  Dealing with aides was annoying and stressful, but they took better care of my mom than she would have gotten in a home.  I took care of my dad as best as I could.  This whole experience was the most stressful thing I have ever been through, but I am so glad I kept them out of homes and let them live their final years with some dignity.  It's also really good that I can live the rest of my life without guilt (at least not from that!) and know that I did my best.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Tiger337