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[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Screwball said:

In prior years this would be the **** hitting the fan

Curious report about a strike at a Saudi refinery. The Iranians said they called the Saudis to deny it was them. So that then, the Houthi's just doing their buddies a favor unbidden? 

[Screwball]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

Curious report about a strike at a Saudi refinery. The Iranians said they called the Saudis to deny it was them. So that then, the Houthi's just doing their buddies a favor unbidden? 

Who knows? False flag, crazy people, planned strike?

I could believe anything. I trust nobody.

[Tigeraholic1]

2 minutes ago, Screwball said:

What we don't produce ourself we import. From 2023, but probably not much different today;

When oil prices didn't go nuts today I thought about the above. The straight doesn't mean much to us. But at the same time, Brent crude, which will have a bigger impact on that part of the world, didn't go nuts either.

Most of Iran's oil goes to China, which is probably why the straight is still open (there are reports this isn't true as well). You need money to fight a war, and oil is money.

You can't print it either. :-)

Having redirected Venezuelan oil is a game changer in that respect. Trump admin knew this needed to happen before attacking Iran.

 

[gehringer_2]

22 hours ago, Screwball said:

I wonder if they still stick the tanks?

In a long past life I remember sticking tanks with water visualizer applied at the end to check for leaks. Water would turn the treated stick purple.  If it was over 1" we were supposed to pump the water out. Who ever thought putting thin wall steel tanks in the ground was a good idea.......

Edited yesterday at 02:39 AM by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Having redirected Venezuelan oil is a game changer in that respect. Trump admin knew this needed to happen before attacking Iran.

 

Unfortunately you are comparing apples to oranges here. The increase in Vz exports from Jan to Feb was approx 300,000 bpd (the take-up of one medium large refinery). The petroleum at risk transiting the Straight of Hormuz totals approximately 21,000,000 bpd. Vz increase is literally a spit in the ocean.

I've seen estimates that maybe 1/3 of the tanker volume could be diverted to pipeline. That still leaves a 14MBPD shortfall at risk.

In it's heyday 30 yrs ago, Vz never produced more than about 3 MBPD

Edited yesterday at 02:45 AM by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

In a long past life I remember sticking tanks with water visualizer applied at the end to check for leaks. Water would turn the treated stick purple.  If it was over 1" we were supposed to pump the water out. Who ever thought putting thin wall steel tanks in the ground was a good idea.......

Yes, I remember that too. I worked at a station on the edge of town. Open field to the West. 6 am, cold as ****. Had to take the cap off, which had a padlock. Froze in winter. So fun. Junior in high school.

Went through the oil embargo of 73-74. Had to ration gas. Not on the bingo card. We had cars lined up down the street.

What's crazy...Before that happened that year, there was a huge concert somewhere around here out in the sticks. Big name bands. When I went to work on Sunday morning the place was full, even parked along the streets to get in. I opened the door, called my boss and said - get the hell out here. What a zoo.

I got to meet and talk to the guys from Brownsville Station. That was super off the charts cool, and I did smoke in the boys room.

[Tigeraholic1]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Unfortunately you are comparing apples to oranges here. The increase in Vz exports from Jan to Feb was approx 300,000 bpd (the take-up of one medium large refinery). The petroleum at risk transiting the Straight of Hormuz totals approximately 21,000,000 bpd. Vz increase is literally a spit in the ocean.

I've seen estimates that maybe 1/3 of the tanker volume could be diverted to pipeline. That still leaves a 14MBPD shortfall at risk.

In it's heyday 30 yrs ago, Vz never produced more than about 3 MBPD

Correct but we import less then 2% of Arab oil. 

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Correct but we import less then 2% of Arab oil. 

Makes no difference to US prices, Exxon is still going to charge you the world price.

[Screwball]

Crude (WTI) up around 8 percent today. $76.87 as I type this (Brent crude at 83.72). Also of note, from OilPrice on natural gas;

Qatar’s LNG Blackout Just Broke the Global Gas Market

Natty gas here is up almost 6 percent.

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Crude (WTI) up around 8 percent today. $76.87 as I type this (Brent crude at 83.72). Also of note, from OilPrice on natural gas;

Qatar’s LNG Blackout Just Broke the Global Gas Market

Natty gas here is up almost 6 percent.

Market in the same pattern as yesterday. Over night pessimism driving a lowered opening and a drop, then midday bargain hunting bringing it back, but not as much so far today as yesterday.

[Deleterious]

Trump is now selling insurance to ships passing through the straight. I'm not making that up.

[gehringer_2]

54 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Trump is now selling insurance to ships passing through the straight. I'm not making that up.

what good is a war if you can’t grift off it?

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Trump is now selling insurance to ships passing through the straight. I'm not making that up.

 I saw that today but didn't think much of it. More BS.

War, and now premium insurance rates due to said war. Both are inflationary. News at 11 kind of thing. Was busy and couldn't follow the timing, but you reminded me. Funny this...

Love the chart porn. I wondered about this, but couldn't find the exact time of release. These guys did.

It's really fun to watch the headlines vs. the tape. This is a case where they jawboned the price of oil down. For today anyway. Won't stay that way if they all keep blowing things the **** up. The next CPI report won't show this, but starting the next month it should start to. One of the only things that made the last one decent was the lower price of...oil and gas. No longer.

Summer is coming, farmers will be planting our food very shortly. Need fertilizer. Natty gas is a large part of that process. That only drives up the cost of our food.

Our corporate overlords know that too. They are probably having meetings as we speak to figure out ways to cut costs - because - the bottom line. What and who gets whacked? We must beat the next quarterly earnings report for the pigmen of Wall Street.

[oblong]

don't forget polymarket.  Someone got rich on that

[Deleterious]

 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

 

How much of that tankage is in range of Iranian missiles?

[Deleterious]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

How much of that tankage is in range of Iranian missiles?

All of it.  

Google says Iran has missiles that can target all the Middle East and into Europe.  

[gehringer_2]

46 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

All of it.  

Google says Iran has missiles that can target all the Middle East and into Europe.  

Oil depot tank farm is about as soft as a target gets. So if you hit a 500,000 bbl storage tank you destroy ~$40M of oil, assuming the tank farm is designed so the tanks are spaced and diked well enough so one doesn't set off others. Plus the cost of the tank - call it another $40M. There may be targets with more return than that on the cost of a mid range missile. HItting at least a couple would make for great war video though, so I'm sure they are somewhere on the list for that reason alone.

Then again do it with a cheap drones and it's Katy bar the door.

Edited 45 minutes ago by gehringer_2