gehringer_2 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Deleterious said: They are now saying a .25 bps bump by the end of the year, which seems light to me. The bigger laugh. They predict PCE hitting their 2% target rate by 2028. It hasn't flirted with 2% since 2021, why would they think they can get it down that far in 2 years? I've heard Warsh thinks AI is going to produce big disinflationary productivity gains.(?) Absent that I agree you aren't getting to 2% without a lot more than a 25 basis point bump. Even if oil flow may start to come back on line over the next month or so, the fertilizer costs, the beef herd - lots of things already baked in for the next year or so. YMMV. Edited June 17 by gehringer_2 Quote
Deleterious Posted June 17 Posted June 17 Warsh did not submit a dot for himself. He said it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Deleterious said: Warsh did not submit a dot for himself. He said it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. Warsh would just as soon have the Fed to go radio silent and never say anything. I think I'd actually be OK with that most of the time. Nothing they say matters until they do something anyway and I think the whole dot-plot thing is overdone. Just more grist for poly-market. OTOH, there are times - for instance when Bernanke went to Congress after the 2008 crash and told them "You have not acted enough, so we are going to try to pick up the slack" before they started QE, that a public announcement of what they are doing mattered but that was different animal than everyday interest rate policy. Edited June 17 by gehringer_2 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 Warsh is also on record wanting to cut the Fed's balance sheet - in his statement today it is the topic for one of his 5 "taskforces". Any big draw down on the balance sheet is also going to be deflationary, the problem is the big banks screamed the last time the Fed started selling in a major way because it depresses the price of a lot of stuff they are holding also - and so reduces their required reserves etc. Quote
Screwball Posted June 18 Posted June 18 Why would anyone believe these Fed ****s? They've been full of **** since Moby **** was a minnow. We have reached the point we follow dots (not aimed at you Del) so come the **** on. We all know what they are going to do. All the horse**** about Warsh. He's been in the system since 2006, nominated by Bush, worked under Bernanke. They are all the same bunch of BS spewing pawns of the system. Controlled by the banks, big money, and blackmail. They spew **** - we eat it up. Anyone who thinks the Fed ****s, the congress ****s, or the corporate America ****s gives one good **** about us - we the people - has their heads firmly planted up their ass. It's gonna be a bunch of fun when this whole **** house blows up. Tick, tick, tick... Quote
Deleterious Posted June 18 Posted June 18 SpaceX options started trading on Tuesday. The weekly options were added today. Quote
Deleterious Posted June 19 Posted June 19 Seems like expanding the IPO float would have been a better idea. But that would have diluted their value, so of course not. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 51 minutes ago, Deleterious said: R.I.P. Let there be no more irrational exuberance. Quote
Screwball Posted June 22 Posted June 22 Mr. Andrea Mitchell Notice the company as he was sworn in as Fed Chair; Quote
Deleterious Posted June 22 Posted June 22 BOA predicting 3 more rate hikes this year. That seems a bit more realistic than the one the Feds were predicting. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 6 minutes ago, Deleterious said: BOA predicting 3 more rate hikes this year. That seems a bit more realistic than the one the Feds were predicting. Can they prosecute Warsh for assassination if that results in a stroke at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave? 😢 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 Space X in danger of closing today below the initial offering price. Quote
Screwball Posted June 23 Posted June 23 (edited) Today's chart porn, just for fun. SPCX or Space X. They IPOed on June 12. That would now give them 6 trading days in the market. This is a 1 hour chart which shows their entire trading history even though it says 30 days at the top. They opened around $150 on day one; first candle on far left. Dark is daytime, and the shaded area shows after hours. Notice after day two of trading, after closing at $192.43 that day, after hours trading shows the price shot to $229, while most are locked out of the market. That's a quick what, 20%. Giggle. Then it took a **** after the 9 pm euphoria, went goofy the next retail trading day sending it back up to $225 on day three. Since, it looks like a ball bouncing down the steps. Now $154 as I type this, close to the initial IPO price that nobody in retail or your 401k account paid. Everyone got front run on the jump at open and really paid around $161. So you got ****ed out of around %4.5 right off the get go, and are now underwater as they say. The Pigmen win again - imagine that. I think we should capitalize Pigmen. 🙂 And they no doubt charged you a fee. No kiss either. I don't know where this is going, but this is fun to watch. I'm bonding right now, this is all nuts. Edited June 23 by Screwball Quote
Screwball Posted June 23 Posted June 23 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Space X in danger of closing today below the initial offering price. I didn't see this when I posted the above. Quote
Deleterious Posted June 23 Posted June 23 Elon trying to hold it together until QQQ has to buy in a few weeks. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 23 Posted June 23 (edited) down day so far - esp NASDAQ Edited June 23 by gehringer_2 Quote
Screwball Posted June 24 Posted June 24 (edited) Like I said, interesting to watch. As noted above the semi's got whacked today. Chart porn of the NASDAQ. 3 month chart by day. Been on a rocket shot since the end of March, hitting a high of 27190.21 on June 1. Took a dip and back up not long after. Kind of volatile in the last week or so trading days. The yellow leftward arrow points at today and the big gap down. There is some support at 24980.38, and a very small gap at 24156.18. Two levels to watch if this continues to the downside. There is also a huge gap around the 22500 level noted by the yellow ellipse. Gaps always fill. BUT, this prick just printed (today) what the technical wizards over in Japan years ago call when they invented this stuff, an "inverted hammer." A bullish reversal candle signaling the market is going to change directions - and in this case - upwards. Fun stuff. Edited June 24 by Screwball Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 (edited) sort of lost in all the AI IPO and Semiconductor segment noise is that Bitcoin has lost a little over 35% since it's Jan peak. I've always wondered where 'support levels' comes from for BIT once it gets into a sustained bear run. I guess we will find out. Edited June 24 by gehringer_2 Quote
Screwball Posted June 25 Posted June 25 4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: sort of lost in all the AI IPO and Semiconductor segment noise is that Bitcoin has lost a little over 35% since it's Jan peak. I've always wondered where 'support levels' comes from for BIT once it gets into a sustained bear run. I guess we will find out. Some speculate the money out of the cryptos rotated into the IPOs, or some of it. I'm still amazed at the amount of money floating around in today's world, for lack of a better term. I don't think all this money is coming from things you can drop on your foot, so it must be created somehow. Debt would be my first guess. Debt is money - till it ain't. Quote
Deleterious Posted June 25 Posted June 25 Something to remember. The Crypto market cap is very small. Google says all Crypto combined has a market cap of $2.2 trillion with Bitcoin making up about $1.25 trillion of that. Google says the S&P 500 market cap is about $66 trillion. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 25 Posted June 25 IBM announced sub 1 nm semiconductor fab tech. https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-06-25-ibm-debuts-worlds-first-sub-1-nanometer-chip-technology Interesting tech but also interesting that this comes from a company that's not in the commercial fab business. Quote
romad1 Posted June 25 Posted June 25 43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: IBM announced sub 1 nm semiconductor fab tech. https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-06-25-ibm-debuts-worlds-first-sub-1-nanometer-chip-technology Interesting tech but also interesting that this comes from a company that's not in the commercial fab business. Biden's chips act. The American Semiconductor Innovation Coalition - IBM Research Quote
Deleterious Posted June 25 Posted June 25 49 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: IBM announced sub 1 nm semiconductor fab tech. https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-06-25-ibm-debuts-worlds-first-sub-1-nanometer-chip-technology Interesting tech but also interesting that this comes from a company that's not in the commercial fab business. The largest chip company on earth doesn't have a commercial fab business. Most chip companies don't have a commercial fab business. Quote
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