Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

If this is true, then it is also true that if it weren't for Randy Smith, the Tigers would not have won the 2006 American League pennant.

If it were up to Harris, we would have a team full of Nick Maton and Charlie Morton type players...lmao

[Tiger337]

28 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Do you know this? Or are you just saying?

I know this by seeing that the manager and almost all the key players on the 2006 roster were acquired by Dombrowski.   Dombrowski tore the team apart and built a winner in 4 years.  

Edited Friday at 07:20 PM by Tiger337

[Tiger337]

9 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

If it were up to Harris, we would have a team full of Nick Maton and Charlie Morton type players...lmao

I don't agree with that at all.  He'd like to have a great team and he may get one eventually. I'm just saying that his impact on the 2024-2025 is being overstated.  

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

If this is true, then it is also true that if it weren't for Randy Smith, the Tigers would not have won the 2006 American League pennant.

Receipts please.

Which exact Randy Smith players were a component of the 2006 team?

[theroundsquare]

wasn't inge a high draft pick of the randy smith regime?

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't agree with that at all.  He'd like to have a great team and he may get one eventually. I'm just saying that his impact on the 2024-2025 is being overstated.  

Agree with this.

This is still not yet Harris's team. A small part yes, but mostly Hinch/ Fetter and Avila's team.

But I anticipate some swift turnover this year and over the next few years that shift it sharply towards being a Harris team.

If Skubal isn't signed for us, after the 2026 season, then that's a big change pending...

Who will survive from Avila's regime? Who of his will be here in 2028/29/30?

Just on a guess: I would start with Dingler and Keith. Jackson Jobe. Troy Melton. 

Gone soon (after 2026) on a guess: Jake Rogers, Mize, Skubal.

Javier Baez gone after next year (2027).

I don't want to hazard a guess on how much longer key Avila players last under Harris... they all have their warts. And that goes for Mize, Tork, Kerry Carpenter, and even Riley Greene. Easily Parker Meadows. They'll need to change their ways or make some key improvements to stick long-term... IMO. Otherwise, Harris is going to have an itch to upgrade as soon as he can. I think first option is for those guys to make improvements. But that's not a guaranteed thing, so...

Maybe a few pitchers can stick for a while as long as they are effective (and inexpensive)... Like Will Vest, if he can make it that far... Can SGL get back on track after all the injuries? Can Reese Olson stay healthy? I'm not certain if Harris holds on to Mize. 50/50? Can Brant Hurter be effective for a few more years? Ty Madden? He needs to show something in MLB that we haven't seen yet... Can Dylan Smith stick as a reliever?

International Avila signees (not much here): Josue Briceno may have a chance. How long will Wenceel last under Harris/Hinch? Can the "light bulb" turn on for Roberto Campos or Cristian Santana (looking HIGHLY doubtful...).

Dark Horse candidate: Jake Miller maybe? Trei Cruz as a utility guy...?

 

Not much there. Not zero... but not much staying power there either. Too many flaws. That, if they can be fixed, will give just a little more staying power (Greene/ Tork/ Mize at the top of that list IMO)...

But... we'll see.

Harris is going to have the opportunity of a LOT of turnover the next few years...

Edited Friday at 08:45 PM by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

16 minutes ago, theroundsquare said:

wasn't inge a high draft pick of the randy smith regime?

Is that it?

I'm being lazy here...

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I know this by seeing that the manager and almost all the key players on the 2006 roster were acquired by Dombrowski.   Dombrowski tore the team apart and built a winner in 4 years.  

I've been told that key players on the 2024-25 Tigers were acquired by Al Avila and that's the reason we won, not anythign that Scott Harris did. But several key players on the 2006 Tigers were acquired by Randy Smith: Chris Shelton, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, Omar Infante, Jeremy Bonderman, Fernando Rodney, Jamie Walker, Mike Maroth, among others. If Avila gets credit for the 2024-25 Tigers being the difference between being in the playoffs versus out because the players were originally acquired by him, why shouldn't Randy Smith get similar credit for players he staffed the 2006 Tigers with?

I've also been told that because Al Avila hired Ryan Garko as VP of Player Development, he should get the credit for the way Garko has developed the players under Harris. The director of scouting under Dave Dombrowski was Greg Smith, who oversaw drafting or signing Curits Granderson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and Wil Ledezma. Greg Smith was hired for the role by Randy Smith in 1997. If Avila gets the credit for the way the players developed under Ryan Garko because Avila hired him, why shouldn't Randy Smith get the credit for the draft picks Greg Smith picked because Randy hired him?

If Al Avila gets credit for the players and their development under Harris, then Randy Smith gets credit for the players and their acquisition under Dombrowski. Right?

See how the logic goes?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I know this by seeing that the manager and almost all the key players on the 2006 roster were acquired by Dombrowski.   Dombrowski tore the team apart and built a winner in 4 years.  

I want to be clear here: I don't really believe Randy Smith deserves credit for 2006 Tigers the way it's been laid out above. That was Dave Dombrowski's team, an entirely different philosophy had been implemented, and the Tigers turned from being a loser to being a winner as a result—just like this is Scott Harris's team with an entirely different philosophy implemented, and the Tigers turning from being a loser to being a winner as a result. 

Just as Dombrowski surveyed the landscape when he came in and kept the personnel Randy Smith acquired who he believed could still contribute to a winning Tigers team, Harris did the exact same thing, keeping the personnel he believes can contribute to a winning Tigers team during this particular window of time (although I'm pretty sure a few of those guys are going to be booted within a couple years as better options come online).

That's why I say that to the degree Al Avila gets credit for the winning Tigers of 2024-25, Randy Smith gets credit for the winning Tigers of 2006 which, in my view, is nearly none. Continuing to insist that Al Avila deserves the lion's share of credit for the current team, apparently because I've been insisting he doesn't, is simply contrarian nonsense.

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Is that it?

I'm being lazy here...

Looking at the top 12 WAR players, Inge is the only one acquired by Randy Smith.  

[Tiger337]

28 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That's why I say that to the degree Al Avila gets credit for the winning Tigers of 2024-25, Randy Smith gets credit for the winning Tigers of 2006 which, in my view, is nearly none. Continuing to insist that Al Avila deserves the lion's share of credit for the current team, apparently because I've been insisting he doesn't, is simply contrarian nonsense.

Smith objectively had minimal impact on the 2006 Tigers unless you think Inge was the heart and soul of the team.  There is really no case you can make that the 2006 team was Smith's team. There is no grey area.    There is plenty of grey area regarding Avila versus Harris.  Avila provided the manager, the players and the pitching coach.  Harris added hardly anything in terms of new players, so this makes the comparison less clear cut than Dombrowski/ Smith.  Your argument is all based on intangibles - development and culture - which are probably somewhat true but the extent is questionable and impossible to prove.  

My argument here is that if Harris acquired the Randy Smith team and made the same level of contribution he had made to this team, they would not have made the playoffs.  

Edited Friday at 09:32 PM by Tiger337

[chasfh]

53 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Smith objectively had minimal impact on the 2006 Tigers unless you think Inge was the heart and soul of the team.  There is really no case you can make that the 2006 team was Smith's team. There is no grey area.    There is plenty of grey area regarding Avila versus Harris.  Avila provided the manager, the players and the pitching coach.  Harris added hardly anything in terms of new players, so this makes the comparison less clear cut than Dombrowski/ Smith.  Your argument is all based on intangibles - development and culture - which are probably somewhat true but the extent is questionable and impossible to prove.  

My argument here is that if Harris acquired the Randy Smith team and made the same level of contribution he had made to this team, they would not have made the playoffs.  

Randy Smith hired Al Avila. He provided Avila to the Tigers, who in turn provided the manager, players, and pitching coach to Scott Harris. So, by the transitive property, Randy Smith deserves credit for the 2024-25 Tigers. Amirite? 😁

I find it ironic that Scott Harris is being penalized here because he managed to salvage something of the rot that Avila left him so quickly. Maybe if the Tigers hadn't gone to the playoffs under him starting with Year Two of his tenure, people would be giving him more credit for the work he's doing, instead of giving credit for Harris's winning to the guy who was dismissed for persistent incompetence and so is no longer here (or, not for nothing, anywhere else) anymore.

I also find it strange that you make it sound as though player development is intangible, like prayer. I would have laughed out loud if anyone had told me you'd ever believe that. I guess it's not so funny after all. And my argument is not "all based" on that, in any event.

Look, give Al Avila as much credit for today's team you see fit. That's strictly up to you and anyone else here. I can reply only that's simply ridiculous, because he had this team for seven years, and the best he could do was guide the team to a 101-loss pace across his last six, including 96 in the final season he was here. The team didn't win until Scott Harris came here, tore the insides out, threw them away, replaced them with the state of the art, and gave the people he saw fit to keep the tools to finally do the job in a way that the former guy was capable only of giving lip service to.

This is Scott Harris's team, and he gets the lion's share of the credit for our winning. Full stop.

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

...

This is Scott Harris's team, and he gets the lion's share of the credit for our winning. Full stop.

Only inside your own mind.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Looking at the top 12 WAR players, Inge is the only one acquired by Randy Smith.  

By this metric (2025)...

Skubal, 6.6, Avila.

Olson, 1.7, Avila.

Vest, 1.7, Avila.

Mize, 1.7, Avila.

Melton, 1.0, Avila.

Dingler, 3.1, Avila.

Torres, 2.9, Harris.

McKinstry, 2.7, Harris.

Torkelson, 2.3, Avila.

Greene, 2.1, Avila.

Baez, 1.9, Avila.

Carpenter, 1.8, Avila.

Keith, 1.5, Avila.

Jahmai Jones, 0.9, Harris

Wenceel Perez, 0.7, Avila.

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 10:53 PM by 1984Echoes

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Randy Smith hired Al Avila. He provided Avila to the Tigers, who in turn provided the manager, players, and pitching coach to Scott Harris. So, by the transitive property, Randy Smith deserves credit for the 2024-25 Tigers. Amirite? 😁

I find it ironic that Scott Harris is being penalized here because he managed to salvage something of the rot that Avila left him so quickly. Maybe if the Tigers hadn't gone to the playoffs under him starting with Year Two of his tenure, people would be giving him more credit for the work he's doing, instead of giving credit for Harris's winning to the guy who was dismissed for persistent incompetence and so is no longer here (or, not for nothing, anywhere else) anymore.

I also find it strange that you make it sound as though player development is intangible, like prayer. I would have laughed out loud if anyone had told me you'd ever believe that. I guess it's not so funny after all. And my argument is not "all based" on that, in any event.

Look, give Al Avila as much credit for today's team you see fit. That's strictly up to you and anyone else here. I can reply only that's simply ridiculous, because he had this team for seven years, and the best he could do was guide the team to a 101-loss pace across his last six, including 96 in the final season he was here. The team didn't win until Scott Harris came here, tore the insides out, threw them away, replaced them with the state of the art, and gave the people he saw fit to keep the tools to finally do the job in a way that the former guy was capable only of giving lip service to.

This is Scott Harris's team, and he gets the lion's share of the credit for our winning. Full stop.

Most of you argument here sounds ridiculous to me, but I'll address the part about player development which is the only way I can see where Harris might have contributed to players already here.  Which players did Harris develop and in what way?  Greene and Carpenter were pretty well developed prior to Harris.  Torkelson figured things out on his own working with someone outside the organization.  I guess you could say Dingler, but what's your evidence?  What did he do for Manning and Mize? Skubal was already getting good prior to Harris and Fetter is widely credited with his becoming elite.  Your argument just seems completely biased to me.    

Edited Friday at 10:50 PM by Tiger337

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Most of you argument here sounds ridiculous to me, but I'll address the part about player development which is the only way I can see where Harris might have contributed to players already here.  Which players did Harris develop and in what way?  Greene and Carpenter were pretty well developed prior to Harris.  Torkelson figured things out on his own working with someone outside the organization.  I guess you could say Dingler, but what's your evidence?  What did he do for Manning and Mize? Skubal was already getting good prior to Harris and Fetter is widely credited with his becoming elite.  Your argument just seems completely biased to me.    

DING DING DING DING!!!

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't agree with that at all.  He'd like to have a great team and he may get one eventually. I'm just saying that his impact on the 2024-2025 is being overstated.  

Yeah, it was sarcasm. I forgot the /s.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Randy Smith hired Al Avila.

Don't believe so. Avila and DD were both with the Marlins. Dombrowski left the Marlins, came to Detroit. Avila made a stop in Pittsburgh to work for Littlefield then DD brought him to Det.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Agree with this.

This is still not yet Harris's team. A small part yes, but mostly Hinch/ Fetter and Avila's team.

But I anticipate some swift turnover this year and over the next few years that shift it sharply towards being a Harris team.

If Skubal isn't signed for us, after the 2026 season, then that's a big change pending...

Who will survive from Avila's regime? Who of his will be here in 2028/29/30?

Just on a guess: I would start with Dingler and Keith. Jackson Jobe. Troy Melton. 

Gone soon (after 2026) on a guess: Jake Rogers, Mize, Skubal.

Javier Baez gone after next year (2027).

I don't want to hazard a guess on how much longer key Avila players last under Harris... they all have their warts. And that goes for Mize, Tork, Kerry Carpenter, and even Riley Greene. Easily Parker Meadows. They'll need to change their ways or make some key improvements to stick long-term... IMO. Otherwise, Harris is going to have an itch to upgrade as soon as he can. I think first option is for those guys to make improvements. But that's not a guaranteed thing, so...

Maybe a few pitchers can stick for a while as long as they are effective (and inexpensive)... Like Will Vest, if he can make it that far... Can SGL get back on track after all the injuries? Can Reese Olson stay healthy? I'm not certain if Harris holds on to Mize. 50/50? Can Brant Hurter be effective for a few more years? Ty Madden? He needs to show something in MLB that we haven't seen yet... Can Dylan Smith stick as a reliever?

International Avila signees (not much here): Josue Briceno may have a chance. How long will Wenceel last under Harris/Hinch? Can the "light bulb" turn on for Roberto Campos or Cristian Santana (looking HIGHLY doubtful...).

Dark Horse candidate: Jake Miller maybe? Trei Cruz as a utility guy...?

 

Not much there. Not zero... but not much staying power there either. Too many flaws. That, if they can be fixed, will give just a little more staying power (Greene/ Tork/ Mize at the top of that list IMO)...

But... we'll see.

Harris is going to have the opportunity of a LOT of turnover the next few years...

The Skubal situation may tell us a lot. Are any Tiger players, ever, going to be signed long term for expensive contracts? Or is the young talented prospects being groomed to take the place of the more expensive players (Riley)? We really don't know if Harris is given a number on the payroll, I really suspect he's been told to keep it low. We just...don't know.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

 

Maybe if the Tigers hadn't gone to the playoffs under him starting with Year Two of his tenure, people would be giving him more credit for the work he's doing, instead of giving credit for Harris's winning to the guy who was dismissed for persistent incompetence and so is no longer here (or, not for nothing, anywhere else) anymore.

 

I think just the opposite...if the Tigers wouldn't have gone to the playoffs the last 2 seasons, people would be calling for Scott Harris' head for his total lack of moves. So maybe Harris has Avila to thank for keeping the heat off of him?

[chasfh]

Leave it to me to accidentally resurrect Al Avila’s reputation and elevate him to an esteemed pedestal! 😂

OK, Avila fans, have it your way. You think your thing, I’ll think mine. Maybe you’ll get your wish, Scott Harris will crash the organization back into the rocks and get fired just like another guy did, and then Daddy will come back from his trip to Philadelphia for a pack of cigarettes and fix everything back the way you like it. 😉

Edited 19 hours ago by chasfh

[Tenacious D]

13 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

The Skubal situation may tell us a lot. Are any Tiger players, ever, going to be signed long term for expensive contracts? Or is the young talented prospects being groomed to take the place of the more expensive players (Riley)? We really don't know if Harris is given a number on the payroll, I really suspect he's been told to keep it low. We just...don't know.

I dont think we’ll learn that from either Skubal or Riley. Skubal’s situation is unique—he’s going to get a ridiculous contract from someone (maybe the Tigers), but he will be in serious demand and I don’t think the Tigers can be blamed if he ultimately goes somewhere else.  Riley is a flawed player who looks like he’ll break down sooner.  He’s basically the Benjamin Button of baseball.

We’ll find out with guys like McGonigle, Clark and Jobe.

[Sports_Freak]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I dont think we’ll learn that from either Skubal or Riley. Skubal’s situation is unique—he’s going to get a ridiculous contract from someone (maybe the Tigers), but he will be in serious demand and I don’t think the Tigers can be blamed if he ultimately goes somewhere else.  Riley is a flawed player who looks like he’ll break down sooner.  He’s basically the Benjamin Button of baseball.

We’ll find out with guys like McGonigle, Clark and Jobe.

True, the money for Skubal will be huge. But look at what some of these All Star type outfielders are getting. I don't see the Tigers signing Riley for $20M per season and like you said, he seems like he may break down. But cutting way back on his strikeouts and staying somewhat healthy would make him a true superstar. There really is no replacing Skubal but we may have a Greene replacement in house. 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Leave it to me to accidentally resurrect Al Avila’s reputation and elevate him to an esteemed pedestal! 😂

OK, Avila fans, have it your way. You think your thing, I’ll think mine. Maybe you’ll get your wish, Scott Harris will crash the organization back into the rocks and get fired just like another guy did, and then Daddy will come back from his trip to Philadelphia for a pack of cigarettes and fix everything back the way you like it. 😉

I dont think there's too many Avila fans on this board. But there are some Harris slappies. 😆😆

[Edman85]

Chris Shelton was not a Randy Smith acquisition.