Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Sports_Freak]

28 minutes ago, Longgone said:

That wasn't a premium, long term commitment.

It was, by far, the best player Harris has signed though.

Bregman was a perfect fit for Detroit. History with Hinch, a position of need and a much needed RH bat. For whatever reason, Harris couldn't get the job done. Makes some fans wonder how far the Tigers could have gone...

Edited Saturday at 03:32 AM by Sports_Freak

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I wonder if shutting down minor league baseball during the pandemic played a part in some of these young players development?

Edit; no, Trey wasn't drafted until 2021 and it was the 2020 season that was shut down. But how about other players?

Losing most or all of one their college seasons was still a loss for some guys coming out in 21 or 22.

[Sports_Freak]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Losing most or all of one their college seasons was still a loss for some guys coming out in 21 or 22.

Yeah, I wonder if it stunted some of that generation players development? I remember hearing it really affected the drafts around that time since scouts couldn't see the players in action. If Trey was shut down in 2020, wherever he was playing, and still got drafted the following June? Maybe he wasn't really a 1st round talent? IDK...

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

It was, by far, the best player Harris has signed though.

Bregman was a perfect fit for Detroit. History with Hinch, a position of need and a much needed RH bat. For whatever reason, Harris couldn't get the job done. Makes some fans wonder how far the Tigers could have gone...

Not far.  Bregman had an abysmal finish to last season.  Would have fit in nicely with the rest of our lineup, but would not have helped.

[oblong]

I’ve always wondered if players coming up/out in 20 and 21 were screwed over in ways other classes were not.  I say 2021 too because realistically you had two draft classes crammed into one. Limited looks and playing time. And then 2022 right there waiting. Wonder if any potential diamonds ended up fading away. 

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

It was, by far, the best player Harris has signed though.

Bregman was a perfect fit for Detroit. History with Hinch, a position of need and a much needed RH bat. For whatever reason, Harris couldn't get the job done. Makes some fans wonder how far the Tigers could have gone...

The reason is Bregman didn’t really want to come here if he had the chance to go somewhere else and Harris wasn’t going to bid against himself. 

[tiger2022]

4 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m not ready to write off Sweeney or Jung.  See Torkelson, Spencer 2025.

 

Those guys are toast.  They can't hit mlb pitching. Sweeney might have a future as a utility player, but Jung's defensive liabilities limits his usefulness.  If he isn't hitting he offers nothing of value.  He only has one position: 3rd base.  They already have Colt Keith, another guy who sucks defensively on the roster.  Vierling will be in the running for 3rd base, if healthy.

Plus all the younger prospects in the organization are going to jump ahead of them.

If McGonigle is as good of a hitter as people think, he will force the Tigers hand to get up to the majors sometime next season.  They will have to play him somewhere.

I think Jung only makes the opening day roster if there are several injuries; he's just AAA depth.  Sweeney might have a shot at the roster as the last utility guy because he can probably play multiple positions. 

[chasfh]

17 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Do you see the Tigers ever signing premium and expensive players to long term contracts of 6 years or more? And I'm not saying it's Harris who wouldn't do it, I've said several times that nobody knows if he's under orders to keep payroll set at a certain amount. Chris doesn't spend like his dad spent. At least, not yet.

There is precedent for Baby Doc spending like Papa Doc—he gave 6/140 to Javy Baez on the mere say-so of Al Avila. Plus, it is well-reported that after hiring Harris, Chris invested millions into upgrading organizational infrastructure related to coaching, training, player development, and data science. These are not the actions of an industrialist who’s about to embark upon harvesting the business.

On the other hand, perhaps it’s not unreasonable to speculate that one of the reasons Ilitch is investing so much in infrastructure now is so he can cheap out on players later, choosing to cycle through a process of identifying and developing great young talent and then flipping them before having to pay them their due? Becoming more or less a Rays North, sometimes playing baseball instead of golf in October but never able to close the deal in November? This is a baseless speculation that comes out of my own imagination, an exercise in nothing more than covering bases, but it does seem consistent with some folks’ defeatist vision of how they see the Harris regime playing out.

In the end, though, I would think even you would have to admit that we can’t come to either conclusion as of today. The only way to know whether Ilitch/Harris will spend on talent at the moment of truth, or cheap out on it, is to live through an entire competitive cycle of build/compete/rebuild, and we are still only in the “build” portion of the current cycle. If we go through this window and learn, I’d guess by 2029 or 2030 or so, that Ilitch and Harris are content to cycle through talent, never pay anyone, never sign anyone or make audacious trades of potential for proof, and be content maybe making the playoffs every once in a while and winning a wild card series every blue moon, then I will sadly come to the same conclusion about Ilitch, Harris, and the Tigers that so many have already come to, and bonus, I will publicly admit right here that you were right all along and I have no idea what the hell I’m talking about. 😉

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

There is precedent for Baby Doc spending like Papa Doc—he gave 6/140 to Javy Baez on the mere say-so of Al Avila. Plus, it is well-reported that after hiring Harris, Chris invested millions into upgrading organizational infrastructure related to coaching, training, player development, and data science. These are not the actions of an industrialist who’s about to embark upon harvesting the business.

On the other hand, perhaps it’s not unreasonable to speculate that one of the reasons Ilitch is investing so much in infrastructure now is so he can cheap out on players later, choosing to cycle through a process of identifying and developing great young talent and then flipping them before having to pay them their due? Becoming more or less a Rays North, sometimes playing baseball instead of golf in October but never able to close the deal in November? This is a baseless speculation that comes out of my own imagination, an exercise in nothing more than covering bases, but it does seem consistent with some folks’ defeatist vision of how they see the Harris regime playing out.

In the end, though, I would think even you would have to admit that we can’t come to either conclusion as of today. The only way to know whether Ilitch/Harris will spend on talent at the moment of truth, or cheap out on it, is to live through an entire competitive cycle of build/compete/rebuild, and we are still only in the “build” portion of the current cycle. If we go through this window and learn, I’d guess by 2029 or 2030 or so, that Ilitch and Harris are content to cycle through talent, never pay anyone, never sign anyone or make audacious trades of potential for proof, and be content maybe making the playoffs every once in a while and winning a wild card series every blue moon, then I will sadly come to the same conclusion about Ilitch, Harris, and the Tigers that so many have already come to, and bonus, I will publicly admit right here that you were right all along and I have no idea what the hell I’m talking about. 😉

What conclusion is that?

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I disagree that the Paredes trade was pure garbage—at the time it was mostly celebrated.  Not sure that you can anticipate a young ball player who was playing at a high level having mental health challenges that would prevent him from ever playing again.  I can’t think of one other MLB player in that situation, so it’s easy to call that one bad luck.

I sure didn’t celebrate it. The closest I came to accepting it was admitting it was probably better to have Austin Meadows in the outfield in Detroit than have Isaac in rotting away in Avila’s doghouse in Toledo. But even you have to admit it turned out to be one of the worse trades Avila did, since he apparently neglected to do basic due diligence about Austin Meadows before he made the deal.

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Certainly possible. And AJ always knows enough to say a lot of nice things about the people he works for, so you wouldn't necessarily find out he didn't wanted their advice if he didn't.....

You might be right. I’m simply making the assumption based on the way we see them interact and the words they have used over the years to describe their working relationship, versus making assumptions based on the notion that everyone always hides their true negative feelings about everyone else.

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, Stormin said:

I do want the Tigers to extend Skubal, but I am not a fan of the Free Press article portraying the Tigers as currently mediocre and the future hopeless without Skubal (42-20 when Skubal starts and 131-131 when Skubal does not start over the last two seasons). 

Since 2022 nearly every position on the Tigers roster has improved (Javy was the highest WAR player in 2022).  The Tigers needed Skubal and improvement at other positions to make the playoffs.

If Skubal does go elsewhere, the Tigers will need development and contributions from multiple players(Turn 5 losses into 5 wins in a season)  to remain a playoff contender.  Jobe, Melton, maybe a healthy Olson, McGonigle, Clark,  ... are on the horizon.

Out of reactions, but Like

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

That's been the assumption with him, but the the Astros have performed well over the years with him on the team.  So, I don't really have an opinion on whether he would be a good teammate.  I know about the incident with the catcher last year, but it might be an isolated incident where he lost his temper or maybe others on the team hated the catcher too.  Who knows?  If the Tigers signed him, I would assume he was not a problem.  I doubt we'll have to worry about that though.  

To ATF’s point, we are a team of kids, one of whose superpowers is the camaraderie and bonhomie of a shared vision to grow the franchise into a winner Bill Lajoie/1970s-80s style: from the inside. The Astros was a team of grizzled grown-ass men, not a few of whom were hired guns. Coulnd’t have been closer to a 180 difference than that.

That said, I’d be up for a pitcher of Framber’s talents signing on here. I think there’d have to be some level of market collapse for him to agree to come here, but I’m not opposed on the merits.

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

I will accept the premise that we have a pitching shortfall,but, I am still convinced we are one bat in the lineup shy for 2026. I don't think Harris ever expected the Tigers to be a playoff team 2 years in a row, and he has not adjusted his thinking for the facts on the ground. There are other things brewing in the background that might be creating a perception of undue risk to an overly risk adverse chap like Harris.

I agree that Harris probably didn’t expect this team to be in the playoffs in Year 2 and 3 of his tenure still carrying a high percentage of Avila signs. That puts a lot more pressure on him as he spools out his vision a s planned, and probably forced him to make a signing going into Year 4 that he wouldn’t have expected to, that of a Kenley Jansen to shore up the back of the pen.

I wouldn’t agree with the thing you didn’t say here but has been implied, that failing to sign a Schwarber or a Tucker or a Bichette, or even extending Skubal this winter, would constitute gross dereliction of responsibility by Harris. We may or may not have enough pieces in house right now to make the next move in October. No one here thinks we definitely do, and I myself can’t be sure either way, but Harris is privy to information we don’t have, so until he takes his shot and fails due to provable incompetence, I’m giving him the leeway to prove it.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m not ready to write off Sweeney or Jung.  See Torkelson, Spencer 2025.

I’m willing to give both those guys one more year. I am actually more optimistic—or less pessimistic, take your pick—about Sweeney than I am about Jung.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

To ATF’s point, we are a team of kids, one of whose superpowers is the camaraderie and bonhomie of a shared vision to grow the franchise into a winner Bill Lajoie/1970s-80s style: from the inside. The Astros was a team of grizzled grown-ass men, not a few of whom were hired guns. Coulnd’t have been closer to a 180 difference than that.

 

The 70s, 80s team had all kinds of different personalties including guys like Morris and Gibson who might not have been regarded as ideal teammates.  On the other hand, Anderson got rid of Leflore because of his bad influence on Whitaker.  But that's something that fans can't really know.  I just want the Tigers to accumulate talented players.  I'll let them decide who is a good teammate, because I don't think fans really know about those things.  

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Yeah, I wonder if it stunted some of that generation players development? I remember hearing it really affected the drafts around that time since scouts couldn't see the players in action. If Trey was shut down in 2020, wherever he was playing, and still got drafted the following June? Maybe he wasn't really a 1st round talent? IDK...

I think it did. That and reducing the minor leagues to four levels from six.

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, oblong said:

The reason is Bregman didn’t really want to come here if he had the chance to go somewhere else and Harris wasn’t going to bid against himself. 

Bregman was and probably still is looking for a Big Six team, or perhaps a team near his home in Albuquerque, which would put D’backs, Rangers, and Astros in the mix. (Maybe not Astros much.)

I also think he had a minimum number in mind—I don’t know, maybe 8/240 or something?—and when he didn’t, he pivoted to Plan B which was short-term/high AAV with opt out after year 1. Red Sox gave him that. Tigers offered him opt out after year 2 instead. You do the math.

Funny thing: Harris offered Bregman 6/171.5, versus the FanGraphs crowdsourcing estimates that he would get 6/162, and yet Harris gets 100% of the blame for Bregman going to RHH-friendly Fenway instead. Take that for what you will.

Edited Saturday at 02:10 PM by chasfh

[chasfh]

34 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

What conclusion is that?

Say your piece.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

 

Those guys are toast.  They can't hit mlb pitching. Sweeney might have a future as a utility player, but Jung's defensive liabilities limits his usefulness.  If he isn't hitting he offers nothing of value.  He only has one position: 3rd base.  

Jung has spent more time in the minors as a 2B than a 3B. They started giving him more time at 3rd after they had to move Colt to 2nd to protect his injured arm. Last season at Toledo they played him about 50/50 2B/3B. 

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Say your piece.

I already said that I think Harris is a solid GM and that I have no interest in seeing him replaced.  He's not perfect though and I'd like to see him be a little more aggressive/creative.  I think several other postets share that view.  

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The 70s, 80s team had all kinds of different personalties including guys like Morris and Gibson who might not have been regarded as ideal teammates.  On the other hand, Anderson got rid of Leflore because of his bad influence on Whitaker.  But that's something that fans can't really know.  I just want the Tigers to accumulate talented players.  I'll let them decide who is a good teammate, because I don't think fans really know about those things.  

That’s true, we had prickly personalities on that team back them even as youngsters coming up through the system. Of course, I also believe players in general from that generation were more prickly in general than players are today. I blame lead in the drinking water and on the school walls. 😏

I meant only to liken that team and this to each other as being teams built into winners from within, nothing more than that.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I already said that I think Harris is a solid GM and that I have no interest in seeing him replaced.  He's not perfect though and I'd like to see him be a little more aggressive/creative.  I think several other postets share that view.  

I agree, several other posters do share that view. Numerous other posters have raked Harris for failing to sign the very biggest of free agents, or to successfully trade second-tier prospects for established big league contributors. 

[Longgone]

11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

It was, by far, the best player Harris has signed though.

Bregman was a perfect fit for Detroit. History with Hinch, a position of need and a much needed RH bat. For whatever reason, Harris couldn't get the job done. Makes some fans wonder how far the Tigers could have gone...

And it disproves any notion that Harris is unwilling to make a long term commitment to a premium player.

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I already said that I think Harris is a solid GM and that I have no interest in seeing him replaced.  He's not perfect though and I'd like to see him be a little more aggressive/creative.  I think several other postets share that view.  

The "perfect" GM is unwilling to put down his beer and back away from the screen to acctually acomplish anything. (20 plus years of APBA and a couple of the simlpified version of OOTP and I still know ****)