Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[kdog]

I know Boras would never allow him to sign..but maybe you offer him a deal that pays him even if there is a lockout? 

[gehringer_2]

On 7/22/2025 at 11:59 AM, Arlington said:

It used to be that a solid starter would face more batters in a season than a starting position player would get at bat.  Wonder if that has shifted now that pitchers are pulled so much more quickly.

if you work 150 innings with a WHIP of 1.25 you face just about 640 batters, and 650 PA is pretty close to a full season of AB for an every day lead-off hitter, so 150 IP is probably a good approximation as the break even point. If you get near 200 IP, your batters faced should be way above a position players AB. Of course if you play premium defense at a valuable position that also counts for something.

Of course there is a little paradox there because you want a pitcher to pitch those innings while facing fewer batters. It's easy to have a big 'batters faced' number if your WHIP is high!

[tiger2022]

Possibly.  But over the last 20 years, other than Paul Skenes, you'd be hard pressed to find a rookie pitcher who performed anywhere near to those projections.  

Even Kershaw and Verlander, arguably 2 of the top 20 pitchers of all time, weren't even close to that type of a season their rookie years.

[GalagaGuy]

The most I could ever see the Tigers offering Skubal would be 8 years/300 million and that even seems like a stretch.  If he stays healthy and continues putting up the stats, I see one of the big market teams giving him 10 years/400 million so I don't think there's a chance in hell the Tigers retain his services beyond next season.  

[chasfh]

7 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

The most I could ever see the Tigers offering Skubal would be 8 years/300 million and that even seems like a stretch.  If he stays healthy and continues putting up the stats, I see one of the big market teams giving him 10 years/400 million so I don't think there's a chance in hell the Tigers retain his services beyond next season.  

If it's known that the market is going to bear 10/400, then I would rather Harris not even bother with an 8/300 offer. Maintain your dignity, Scott.

[GalagaGuy]

36 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If it's known that the market is going to bear 10/400, then I would rather Harris not even bother with an 8/300 offer. Maintain your dignity, Scott.

I think the Tigers have to make the offer or the fan base is going to go nuts.  If the Tigers offer him 8/300 and he turns it down, I think most fans are going to accept that they did all they could to try and keep him.    

 

[tiger2022]

They will end up trading him either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.  I don't think pizza boy cares what the fans think.

[papalawrence]

If the current collapse continues and they miss the playoffs, I think the odds Scoobs gets dealt this winter go up significantly 

[tiger2022]

Not the making the playoffs is going to be a challenge.  I can see them losing the division, but to miss the playoffs, the Red Sox, Mariners, and Yankees would all need to pass them.  Not saying it won't happen, but that needs the Tigers to suck and the other 3 teams to play well.

[papalawrence]

20 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Not the making the playoffs is going to be a challenge.  I can see them losing the division, but to miss the playoffs, the Red Sox, Mariners, and Yankees would all need to pass them.  Not saying it won't happen, but that needs the Tigers to suck and the other 3 teams to play well.

I agree, but the Yankees are currently the last wc team and they are 4.5 behind Detroit. The Red Sox and Mariners are both 2 games behind Detroit. 44 games remain. 

I expect Detroit to right the ship, but at this point I will not be surprised if they fall out of the playoffs

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

I think the Tigers have to make the offer or the fan base is going to go nuts.  If the Tigers offer him 8/300 and he turns it down, I think most fans are going to accept that they did all they could to try and keep him.    

 

Just as Al Avila did all he could when he offered Carlos Correa 10/275 even as everyone knew Correa’s floor at the time was $300MM. So everyone, including Avila, knew Correa was going to turn down the offer. But you are 100% correct that Avila was given full credit for making the offer by the fans, who ignored—or, more likely, didn’t even recognize—the cynical nature of the offer in the first place. As a result, Correa got raked, here and elsewhere, for having the temerity to turn down the offer.

That would probably happen, too, if Harris offered $300MM to Skubal out of the gate knowing full well that the expectation would be Skubal shooting for $400MM. Harris would be praised, Skubal would get raked, world would keep turning.

Edited Sunday at 07:25 PM by chasfh

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Just as Al Avila did all he could when he offered Carlos Correa 10/275 even as everyone knew Correa’s floor at the time was $300MM. So everyone, including Avila, knew Correa was going to turn down the offer. But you are 100% correct that Avila was given full credit for making the offer by the fans, who ignored—or, more likely, didn’t even recognize—the cynical nature of the offer in the first place. As a result, Correa got raked, here and elsewhere, for having the temerity to turn down the offer.

That would probably happen, too, if Harris offered $300MM to Skubal out of the gate knowing full well that the expectation would be Skubal shooting for $400MM. Harris would be praised, Skubal would get raked, world would keep turning.

Correa never got his 300 million, so I think it was worth making him an offer less than that. As it turns out though, he wasn't worth as much as he wanted or as much as the Tigers reportedly offereed.   

Edited Sunday at 07:40 PM by Tiger337

[chasfh]

16 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Correa never got his 300 million, so I think it was worth making him an offer less than that. As it turns out though, he wasn't worth as much as he wanted or as much as the Tigers reportedly offereed.   

Avila did get credit for a zero-chance thing, so, that’s a good thing, I guess.

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Avila did get credit for a zero-chance thing, so, that’s a good thing, I guess.

Perhaps Correa did consider the offer (assuming there was an offer and that it was 275 million as reported) and then decided against it and instead went for a shorter term deal with the Twins similar to what Bregman did with the Red Sox.  I think it was fine for the Tigers to make an offer in both cases.  I don't know how much the Tigers offer was in either case but ,as a fan, if they want somebody, I'd rather see them try than not try.  

[papalawrence]

I think Harris sticks to his plan. I doubt he would make a low-ball offer to appease fans. I do expect Harris and Greenberg to come up with a legit offer within their plan and either make that offer or trade Skubal.

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Perhaps Correa did consider the offer (assuming there was an offer and that it was 275 million as reported) and then decided against it and instead went for a shorter term deal with the Twins similar to what Bregman did with the Red Sox.  I think it was fine for the Tigers to make an offer in both cases.  I don't know how much the Tigers offer was in either case but ,as a fan, if they want somebody, I'd rather see them try than not try.  

It wasn’t an actual try.

[GalagaGuy]

49 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Just as Al Avila did all he could when he offered Carlos Correa 10/275 even as everyone knew Correa’s floor at the time was $300MM. So everyone, including Avila, knew Correa was going to turn down the offer. But you are 100% correct that Avila was given full credit for making the offer by the fans, who ignored—or, more likely, didn’t even recognize—the cynical nature of the offer in the first place. As a result, Correa got raked, here and elsewhere, for having the temerity to turn down the offer.

That would probably happen, too, if Harris offered $300MM to Skubal out of the gate knowing full well that the expectation would be Skubal shooting for $400MM. Harris would be praised, Skubal would get raked, world would keep turning.

I was thinking more like the Bregman situation.  Once the details of the Tigers offer were made public, I don't know anyone who was still howling about not signing him. 

[tiger2022]

4 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

I think Harris sticks to his plan. I doubt he would make a low-ball offer to appease fans. I do expect Harris and Greenberg to come up with a legit offer within their plan and either make that offer or trade Skubal.

Like the low ball offer contract extension they offered him last season?  

[papalawrence]

Just now, tiger2022 said:

Like the low ball offer contract extension they offered him last season?  

They offered Skubal a low-ball offer? I hadn't heard that

[tiger2022]

It was called a non-competetive offer.

[papalawrence]

Just now, tiger2022 said:

It was called a non-competetive offer.

Where was it disclosed? I never saw it

[tiger2022]

They never disclosed the details but I remember reading it was non competitive.  

I'm sure there's something on the web about it.

[GalagaGuy]

Has a team in contention for the post season ever traded a superstar they knew wouldn't be returning to the team the following season?  Imagine if we get to the trade deadline next year and the Tigers are leading the division.  Is there any chance the Tigers would trade Skubal to a NL team if the return was good enough?   Sounds wild, but imagine a team being willing to give you a couple top prospects.   

[tiger2022]

If they did that, there would be hell to pay from the fan base.

But I can see Harris convincing pizza boy to do that.

[Tiger337]

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It wasn’t an actual try.

You don't know that.