2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[chasfh]

40 minutes ago, casimir said:

I’m fine with 2/$35M.  Can we move this forward, please?

I just used 2/28 and 2/35 as an example, rather than my personal benchmark for signing him. I was going off memory and didn't remember that MLBTR is projecting 2/38.

So let's revise what I said earlier to this:

I believe if hypothetically the Tigers offered Bassitt 2/38 and the best of the usual suspects offered him 2/36, he'd take the 2/36. I think in a case like that, we'd have to go way bigger, something like 2/44 or better, to win him.

Which, by the way, would make Bassitt way more highly-paid than Skubal, whom they are trying to pay $19 million. Imagine how well that would go over in the clubhouse.

[Tiger337]

39 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I just used 2/28 and 2/35 as an example, rather than my personal benchmark for signing him. I was going off memory and didn't remember that MLBTR is projecting 2/38.

So let's revise what I said earlier to this:

I believe if hypothetically the Tigers offered Bassitt 2/38 and the best of the usual suspects offered him 2/36, he'd take the 2/36. I think in a case like that, we'd have to go way bigger, something like 2/44 or better, to win him.

Which, by the way, would make Bassitt way more highly-paid than Skubal, whom they are trying to pay $19 million. Imagine how well that would go over in the clubhouse.

Flaherty and Cobb both made more than Skubal last year.  

[tiger2022]

They gave Flaherty $25 million last year with a $5 million signing bonus.  This year, Flaherty will make $20 million if he makes 15 starts.

And Skubal is only worth $19.5 million according to the FO.  Not only is he the best player on the team, but he seems to be the team leader too.  

And in his final year with the team, they aren't even trying to put a better team on the field behind him.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 01:06 AM by tiger2022

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

They gave Flaherty $25 million last year with a $5 million signing bonus.  This year, Flaherty will make $20 million if he makes 15 starts.

And Skubal is only worth $19.5 million according to the FO.  Not only is he the best player on the team, but he seems to be the team leader too.  

And in his final year with the team, they aren't even trying to put a better team on the field behind him.

 

 

if absolute performance were the only criterion in the arbitration process, then a lot of 6th yr guys ought to have been awarded a lot more than they ever were/are. I don't know all the things they factor in, but there have to be some pretty hard rules about service time and multiples from previous salaries that figure into the process.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

They gave Flaherty $25 million last year with a $5 million signing bonus.  This year, Flaherty will make $20 million if he makes 15 starts.

And Skubal is only worth $19.5 million according to the FO.  Not only is he the best pitcher in baseball, but he seems to be the team leader too.  

And in his final year with the team, they aren't even trying to put a better team on the field behind him.

 

 

FTFY

[Sports_Freak]

There's a very real possibility that the Tigers will lose their 3 top starting pitchers after 2026. I'm totally against trading Skubal but if the right offer came along, the Tigers would be crazy to turn it down. But again, what team would trade players almost ML ready for a 1 year rental? And asking Harris to make a blockbuster trade? That would be kinda like asking Miguel Cabrera to play shortstop. 😅😅

[tiger2022]

In 2000 and 2001, his primary position was SS.  2000- 61 of 65 games at SS.  2001- 98 of 110 games at SS.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Flaherty and Cobb both made more than Skubal last year.  

Cobb was never in the clubhouse, so that licks half the problem!

[GalagaGuy]

One of you hardcore Tigers fans needs to head over to Digg and create a Tigers community.  They opened up a few days ago and nobody has made one yet.  

[Sports_Freak]

16 hours ago, chasfh said:

I just used 2/28 and 2/35 as an example, rather than my personal benchmark for signing him. I was going off memory and didn't remember that MLBTR is projecting 2/38.

So let's revise what I said earlier to this:

I believe if hypothetically the Tigers offered Bassitt 2/38 and the best of the usual suspects offered him 2/36, he'd take the 2/36. I think in a case like that, we'd have to go way bigger, something like 2/44 or better, to win him.

Which, by the way, would make Bassitt way more highly-paid than Skubal, whom they are trying to pay $19 million. Imagine how well that would go over in the clubhouse.

Matthew Boyd at 30m/2years would have been a bargain last off-season. I dont see Detroit signing any pitcher more than what they offered Skubal. Maybe a reject trying to regain his stuff or somebody coming off of injury? You know, the bargain bin...

[Edman85]

I don't know if this has been mentioned here, but Dombrowski's original analytics guy, Director of Baseball Ops, Mike Smith is on Twitter and is an interesting follow if you are into the roster minutiae without the smug that I bring.

[Motor City Sonics]

Building towards the future and expecting to at least be a playoff-bound team this season, the real window is 2028/29

For position players we have the Core Four, who I expect to be around for the long laul

Carpetner

Dinger

Greene

Torkelson

 

The next four

Briceno

Clark

McGonigle

Rainer

 

So for 2028 we could have

c Dingler

1b Torkelson

2b McGonigle

ss Rainer

3b Keith?  

rf Carpenter

cf Clark

lf Greene

dh Briceno

 

That is potentially a very solid lineup. 

I doubt McKinstry's still going to be around, so maybe 3rd base will just be that position where they work a few guys in - or maybe someone is on the way.   I really think that this year, not signing an infielder means they want to see Max, Lee, Jung, Keith and Cruz all get a look at some point this season to see if any could stick.      

 

The pitching rotation though

If things pan out for all the guys 2028 could be

Jobe, Melton, Olson..........and?   and?    Where/who are the next guys?    At least one we get for Skubal?  

 

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Building towards the future and expecting to at least be a playoff-bound team this season, the real window is 2028/29

For position players we have the Core Four, who I expect to be around for the long laul

Carpetner

Dinger

Greene

Torkelson

 

The next four

Briceno

Clark

McGonigle

Rainer

 

So for 2028 we could have

c Dingler

1b Torkelson

2b McGonigle

ss Rainer

3b Keith?  

rf Carpenter

cf Clark

lf Greene

dh Briceno

 

That is potentially a very solid lineup. 

I doubt McKinstry's still going to be around, so maybe 3rd base will just be that position where they work a few guys in - or maybe someone is on the way.   I really think that this year, not signing an infielder means they want to see Max, Lee, Jung, Keith and Cruz all get a look at some point this season to see if any could stick.      

 

The pitching rotation though

If things pan out for all the guys 2028 could be

Jobe, Melton, Olson..........and?   and?    Where/who are the next guys?    At least one we get for Skubal?  

 

I think Carpenter is too much a platoon guy and an iron glove to be a linchpin piece for a championship team. He’s a primary DH, a fourth outfielder, and a potent bat off the bench for that kind of team. That makes him a a 400- or 450-PA platoon guy, not a 650-PA core guy. I think I’d be surprised to see a 30-year-old Carpenter be considered part of the 2028 core.

I suppose Tork and Riley could be linchpin pieces but I don’t think that’s a fait accompli, especially for Tork, who still looks like he has too many holes in his game to be that guy. He has over 2,000 plate appearances across four seasons in the majors and has barely cracked 2 WAR for his whole career. That might be good enough for the Avila Tigers or even a bubble team, but not a team striving to play on Halloween. As for Riley, I think this is a pivotal year to prove he can be that consistent five-win All-Star for the next half a decade so he can be signed long-term to be a championship team leader.

Dingler has potential to be a Freehan type as long as this year wasn’t his outlier. MLB didn’t think he was good enough to be listed on their Top 100 show, although that’s not super meaningful, either. If he follows up this year with the same or better, I’m gonna get awful excited.

If we have those nine guys in the lineup for 2028, meaning zero moves by Harris in the meantime, I think this board would have a hairy conniption.

Edited yesterday at 01:51 PM by chasfh

[casimir]

On 1/16/2026 at 7:17 PM, chasfh said:

I just used 2/28 and 2/35 as an example, rather than my personal benchmark for signing him. I was going off memory and didn't remember that MLBTR is projecting 2/38.

So let's revise what I said earlier to this:

I believe if hypothetically the Tigers offered Bassitt 2/38 and the best of the usual suspects offered him 2/36, he'd take the 2/36. I think in a case like that, we'd have to go way bigger, something like 2/44 or better, to win him.

Which, by the way, would make Bassitt way more highly-paid than Skubal, whom they are trying to pay $19 million. Imagine how well that would go over in the clubhouse.

I don’t necessarily agree with the 2/38 vs 2/36 analogy, but I may be reading you too literally.

[casimir]

12 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Building towards the future and expecting to at least be a playoff-bound team this season, the real window is 2028/29

For position players we have the Core Four, who I expect to be around for the long laul

Carpetner

Dinger

Greene

Torkelson

 

The next four

Briceno

Clark

McGonigle

Rainer

 

So for 2028 we could have

c Dingler

1b Torkelson

2b McGonigle

ss Rainer

3b Keith?  

rf Carpenter

cf Clark

lf Greene

dh Briceno

 

That is potentially a very solid lineup. 

I doubt McKinstry's still going to be around, so maybe 3rd base will just be that position where they work a few guys in - or maybe someone is on the way.   I really think that this year, not signing an infielder means they want to see Max, Lee, Jung, Keith and Cruz all get a look at some point this season to see if any could stick.      

 

The pitching rotation though

If things pan out for all the guys 2028 could be

Jobe, Melton, Olson..........and?   and?    Where/who are the next guys?    At least one we get for Skubal?  

 

Rosters just don’t stay intact like that.  I would be surprised if two of Torkelson/Greene/Carpenter/Keith are not out of the organization by Opening Day.

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, casimir said:

I don’t necessarily agree with the 2/38 vs 2/36 analogy, but I may be reading you too literally.

My point is that I believe Bassitt, and any other free agent who has a choice, would choose to take slightly less money from a high profile team than slightly more money from us, at this point in time. That could change in the future, meaning we could become competitive for top free agents with the “best” teams, but before that happens I think we would have to both (A) win a pennant, and (2) commit to at least one star for a long-term, preferably high-dollar contract while under team control.

[casimir]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

My point is that I believe Bassitt, and any other free agent who has a choice, would choose to take slightly less money from a high profile team than slightly more money from us, at this point in time. That could change in the future, meaning we could become competitive for top free agents with the “best” teams, but before that happens I think we would have to both (A) win a pennant, and (2) commit to at least one star for a long-term, preferably high-dollar contract while under team control.

Maybe, maybe not in general terms.

The good thing about baseball is that the margin between top and bottom of league in terms of winning percentage is much slimmer than other sports.  Baseball playoffs are largely a 50/50 proposition.  The higher profile teams don’t always win the championship.  And not everyone wants to live in or play for New York or Los Angeles.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, casimir said:

Maybe, maybe not in general terms.

The good thing about baseball is that the margin between top and bottom of league in terms of winning percentage is much slimmer than other sports.  Baseball playoffs are largely a 50/50 proposition.  The higher profile teams don’t always win the championship.  And not everyone wants to live in or play for New York or Los Angeles.

Agreed. Maybe they prefer to play in Boston or Chicago or San Francisco or Toronto or Baltimore or Philadelphia instead. What I have seen is that outside of the Cubs, almost no Central teams have been signing top free agents for big money or long terms the last few years.

Of course, this year, short term/big money contracts have become the big thing, which players have gravitated towards I believe so they can make as much money as possible before the expected work stoppage.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Agreed. Maybe they prefer to play in Boston or Chicago or San Francisco or Toronto or Baltimore or Philadelphia instead. What I have seen is that outside of the Cubs, almost no Central teams have been signing top free agents for big money or long terms the last few years.

Of course, this year, short term/big money contracts have become the big thing, which players have gravitated towards I believe so they can make as much money as possible before the expected work stoppage.

Is the lack of spending due to ownership, players, or both?

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

He has over 2,000 plate appearances across four seasons in the majors and has barely cracked 2 WAR for his whole career

WAR is sort of cruel to 1Bs. He was over 2 OWar in '23 and '25 but got pulled down by DWar numbers, which we've talked about a lot for 1Bs. It's just a place where in my view the stat is detached from reality. Torkelson's play at 1B is does not cost the Tigers wins or negate his offense. He is simply not a bad 1B and whatever his dWAR thinks it  is capturing, I don't care about it (e.g I'm not asking him to play SS!)  and I'm willing to bet the analysis the Tigers use internally doesn't either.

Edited yesterday at 05:41 PM by gehringer_2

[Stormin]

On 1/17/2026 at 7:08 AM, chasfh said:

Cobb was never in the clubhouse, so that licks half the problem!

Alex was receiving back pay owed to Ty.

[chasfh]

44 minutes ago, casimir said:

Is the lack of spending due to ownership, players, or both?

Lack of spending by the Central teams? Probably both to some degree, perhaps independent of one another.

The various ownerships may feel it's not worth it to pursue top free agents because they won't go there anyway—look what happened with the Tigers making the richest offer to Bregman, and yet his going to Boston for less money anyway. (At least that's how it looked at the time—it ended up being a smart money move after all, with teams he preferred to play on.) And the best the Pirates could do was make a half-assed offer to Schwarber, probably a performative gesture for their fans since they must have known that he was never going to take it.

But players also have their own agendas as to whom they want to sign with, too, and that encompasses a small subset of the total number of teams. It's mostly about winning a ring now. That's why everyone wants to go to the Dodgers and Blue Jays right now. But I think it's also a combination of who has a recent history of throwing big money at players, and have a perceived chance of winning a ring or pennant right away. These eight teams—Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies—qualify by a long shot in the minds of players. A couple other teams qualify, I believe, as good "close to home" venues that also spend a bunch of money, also an attractive proposition to players, especially those who have school-age kids (Arizona and San Diego come to mind). Only one team seemed to have broken that cycle—Texas, for a couple of years—but now they are back in the dumps and are noncompetitive for top free agents.

If the Royals had offered 4/260 to Tucker over the Dodgers, would he have taken that KC offer if the Dodgers were to not budge on their final number? It comes down to whether $240 million and a bunch of rings would have been more or less valuable to him than $260 million and no rings. I know what I think he'd do.

It's no accident that since the 2021-22 offseason, of the 35 contracts of $100 million or higher, 25 of them, or 71%, come from those eight teams above, which make up 27% of all teams. Same when it comes to high AAV contracts: of the 34 contracts with AAV $25MM or higher, 22 (65%) come from those teams. That's 27% of teams more or less monopolize more than two-thirds of top free agents over the past five years. is that really sustainable state of affairs? We'd have to ask the MLB business people that question.

If your question is coming down to, "Is it the chicken or the egg?", I think the answer would have to be, "Yes".

[chasfh]

40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

WAR is sort of cruel to 1Bs. He was over 2 OWar in '23 and '25 but got pulled down by DWar numbers, which we've talked about a lot for 1Bs. It's just a place where in my view the stat is detached from reality. Torkelson's play at 1B is does not cost the Tigers wins or negate his offense. He is simply not a bad 1B and whatever his dWAR thinks it  is capturing, I don't care about it (e.g I'm not asking him to play SS!)  and I'm willing to bet the analysis the Tigers use internally doesn't either.

Granting your point about first basemen positionally penalized by WAR, here is how Spencer ranks among all first basemen with 1,500 plate appearances or more since 2022:

 

This includes no fewer than 12 first basemen ranking above him who've had fewer than 2,000 plate appearances the past four seasons, far fewer than Spencer's 2,118—including the guy above him who just retired because he can't perform to his own standard anymore.

I'd be surprised to learn that the Tiger coaches and front office are unconcerned about his -42.5-run defense, let alone consider his +0.5-run offense to be good enough to disregard or even accept that.

Edited yesterday at 06:16 PM by chasfh

[Tiger337]

38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

WAR is sort of cruel to 1Bs. He was over 2 OWar in '23 and '25 but got pulled down by DWar numbers, which we've talked about a lot for 1Bs. It's just a place where in my view the stat is detached from reality. Torkelson's play at 1B is does not cost the Tigers wins or negate his offense. He is simply not a bad 1B and whatever his dWAR thinks it  is capturing, I don't care about it (e.g I'm not asking him to play SS!)  and I'm willing to bet the analysis the Tigers use internally doesn't either.

I'm not sure how you want to fix that.  Do you want to get rid of positional adjustments and ignore position in evalualting a player or do you think that the positional adjustment for first basemen in particular is too harsh?  I can't really justify the former, but the latter is possible.  

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm not sure how you want to fix that.  Do you want to get rid of positional adjustments and ignore position in evalualting a player or do you think that the positional adjustment for first basemen in particular is too harsh?  I can't really justify the former, but the latter is possible.  

I get how it can be difficult to understand just how much positional adjustments should matter because we can't see under the hood how they are done. I generally trust the hundreds of baseball minds who have been (and presumably continue to be) working on establishing and honing the valuation, but I do grant that it's possible there's a huge blind spot afflicting the entire informed-outsider analytical community about it. Speaking only for myself, I wouldn't let that possibility lead me to reject outright the current calculations, though.