2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm not sure how you want to fix that.  Do you want to get rid of positional adjustments and ignore position in evalualting a player or do you think that the positional adjustment for first basemen in particular is too harsh?  I can't really justify the former, but the latter is possible.  

I suppose there is no need to 'fix' as long as one understands what it's actually telling you (nor not telling you! ;))

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I get how it can be difficult to understand just how much positional adjustments should matter because we can't see under the hood how they are done. I generally trust the hundreds of baseball minds who have been (and presumably continue to be) working on establishing and honing the valuation, but I do grant that it's possible there's a huge blind spot afflicting the entire informed-outsider analytical community about it. Speaking only for myself, I wouldn't let that possibility lead me to reject outright the current calculations, though.

I do understand that WAR has not been communicated well and I think it may be more complex than it needs to be if it's going to be presented to a wide audience.  Perhaps, they could have one WAR for people doing research and one simpler WAR for average fans.  Joe Posnanski has been suggesting something like that for years.  It might piss off some sabers to see other fans using an inferior stat, but I could live with that.  It would be like using OPS rather than wOBA.  

I don't think it's difficult to understand why a shortstop contributes more to his team than a first baseman just by being a shortstop though.  And I know you understand that.  Maybe, it could just be presented better.     

[gehringer_2]

On 1/16/2026 at 7:57 PM, Tiger337 said:

Flaherty and Cobb both made more than Skubal last year.  

any player in the MLB who is worried about himself or other guys being paid what they are actually worth in the years they are worth it is going to be having a very hard time emotionally. I'm sure any pro baseball player who hasn't already lost his mind over it has made his peace with the fact that what guys are being paid at any given time in MLB has almost nothing to do with how much they are contributing to the team or whether the guys he sees when he looks down the dugout bench are being paid for more or less 'value' to the club than he is.

Edited Sunday at 07:09 PM by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

any player in the MLB who is worried about himself or other guys being paid what they are actually worth in the years they are worth it is going to be having a very hard time emotionally. I'm sure any pro baseball player who hasn't already lost his mind over it has made his peace with the fact that what guys are being paid at any given time in MLB has almost nothing to do with how much they are contributing to the team or whether those players are more or less 'value' to the club than they are.

It's not different from other jobs in that respect.  It's just that there is a lot more money involved and the results are public.  

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

It's not different from other jobs in that respect.  It's just that there is a lot more money involved and the results are public.  

right - and also the ratios involved are so huge. If you are working for Amalgamated Widget, and the guy in the next cubicle doing a similar job gets a bigger raise then you do, it's not likely to be to 30x what you are making like it is between a future HOF player in his rookie yr versus a washed up unproductive player that got lucky like Cobb.

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

right - and also the ratios involved are so huge. If you are working for Amalgamated Widget, and the guy in the next cubicle doing a similar job gets a bigger raise then you do, it's not likely to be to 30x what you are making like it is between a future HOF player in his rookie yr versus a washed up unproductive player that got lucky like Cobb.

True, but the difference in the amount of money you and your co-worker gets would probably have a bigger impact on the lives of average people than the difference in the amounts that Cobb and Skubal get.  

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

any player in the MLB who is worried about himself or other guys being paid what they are actually worth in the years they are worth it is going to be having a very hard time emotionally. I'm sure any pro baseball player who hasn't already lost his mind over it has made his peace with the fact that what guys are being paid at any given time in MLB has almost nothing to do with how much they are contributing to the team or whether the guys he sees when he looks down the dugout bench are being paid for more or less 'value' to the club than he is.

I could see where, if Skubal loses the arb case and gets the $19 million the Tigers imply he’s worth, and then they turn around and bring in Chris Bassitt for something more, Tarik might be at least a little annoyed.

Edited Sunday at 08:59 PM by chasfh

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I do understand that WAR has not been communicated well and I think it may be more complex than it needs to be if it's going to be presented to a wide audience.  Perhaps, they could have one WAR for people doing research and one simpler WAR for average fans.  Joe Posnanski has been suggesting something like that for years.  It might piss off some sabers to see other fans using an inferior stat, but I could live with that.  It would be like using OPS rather than wOBA.  

I don't think it's difficult to understand why a shortstop contributes more to his team than a first baseman just by being a shortstop though.  And I know you understand that.  Maybe, it could just be presented better.     

The thing about WAR I don’t particularly like is how under the hood the calculation is. I have always wanted to know it so I could tinker with myself. Maybe they hide it by design to prevent that. Who knows. I do trust it to be accurate at least within reason.

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The thing about WAR I don’t particularly like is how under the hood the calculation is. I have always wanted to know it so I could tinker with myself. Maybe they hide it by design to prevent that. Who knows. I do trust it to be accurate at least within reason.

I am not entirely sure what's under the hood myself, because they update it without publicly documenting it all the time.  I think it is has gotten so messy that few people would really understand it anyway.  That mioght be why they don't publicize it much.  It is very hard to find official documentation on positional adjustments but I know it's based on an analysis of players who played multiple positions (I think in the same year or adjacent years).  I don't know the details.  Tango did it and it was peer reviewed, so the method is most likely sound.  I can see problems with such an analysis, but there is probably no good way to do it if you are trying compare players historically.    

[chasfh]

19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am not entirely sure what's under the hood myself, because they update it without publicly documenting it all the time.  I think it is has gotten so messy that few people would really understand it anyway.  That mioght be why they don't publicize it much.  It is very hard to find official documentation on positional adjustments but I know it's based on an analysis of players who played multiple positions (I think in the same year or adjacent years).  I don't know the details.  Tango did it and it was peer reviewed, so the method is most likely sound.  I can see problems with such an analysis, but there is probably no good way to do it if you are trying compare players historically.    

Perhaps another reason they don’t publicize their work on WAR is that with at least three different versions of it out there, each proprietor might have a proprietary interest in keeping their versions secret from the other two?

Edited Sunday at 09:35 PM by chasfh

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Perhaps another reason they don’t publicize their work on WAR is that with at least three different versions of it out there, each proprietor might have a proprietary interest in keeping their versions secret from the other two?

I don't believe so.  They have been pretty open about most of it and they seem to honestly answer questions when asked about it.  

[IdahoBert]

Someone smart, not me, should start a spring training thread.

On my ESPN app it just alerted me that the Tigers are playing the Yankees at Steinbrenner Field, February 21. That’s just 34 days away. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

Someone smart, not me, should start a spring training thread.

On my ESPN app it just alerted me that the Tigers are playing the Yankees at Steinbrenner Field, February 21. That’s just 34 days away. 

Pitchers and catchers report on February 11.  24 days.  

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, chasfh said:

I could see where, if Skubal loses the arb case and gets the $19 million the Tigers imply he’s worth, and then they turn around and bring in Chris Bassitt for something more, Tarik might be at least a little annoyed.

If it's true that Skubal/Boras didn't even make a pre-arb counter offer to the Tigers, to me that means they already look at any contractural relationship with the. Tigers as being in the rear view mirror.

Edited yesterday at 04:33 AM by gehringer_2

[IdahoBert]

I’m having a hard time finding any evidence of the Tigers spring training broadcast schedule for 2026. On the MLB app on my phone the only time there’s any broadcast so far is when we play the Orioles? And it’s an Orioles broadcast and only on the radio? 

[ToledoBrian]

A little over 3 weeks til pitchers & catchers report..Feb 11th. The team can add players to the 60 day DL on the 12th?  Who besides Jobe gets added?  Can we wait until then to add another SP? Who is the most likely to be DFA'd if we sign someone before then?

[NorthWoods]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

If it's true that Skubal/Boras didn't even make a pre-arb counter offer to the Tigers, to me that means they already look at any contractural relationship with the. Tigers as being in the rear view mirror.

Agree.   If Skubal's 1st choice was to stay in Detroit it seems there would have been at least minimal good faith negotiations Boras or not.   The lack of any contact tells me he's mentally out the door, another reason why I think a trade is the best course here.

[gehringer_2]

48 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Agree.   If Skubal's 1st choice was to stay in Detroit it seems there would have been at least minimal good faith negotiations Boras or not.   The lack of any contact tells me he's mentally out the door, another reason why I think a trade is the best course here.

That aspect doesn't worry me so much. Even if he is disconnecting mentally from a *future* with Detroit,  if he is angling for a record setting deal, he is going to be driven to perform in the '26 *present* to get it.

Edited yesterday at 03:00 PM by gehringer_2

[tiger2022]

18 hours ago, chasfh said:

The thing about WAR I don’t particularly like is how under the hood the calculation is. I have always wanted to know it so I could tinker with myself. Maybe they hide it by design to prevent that. Who knows. I do trust it to be accurate at least within reason.

WAR calculations don't make any sense to me.  In 2014, Scherzer and Sale both had a 6 5 WAR even though Scherzer was superior to Sale in every single statistic.  And Iwakuma had a 7.0 WAR even though he was worse than Scherzer in everything but slightly better in ERA.  

And I'm sure you can find hundreds of other examples that don't seem rational 

[tiger2022]

2 hours ago, ToledoBrian said:

A little over 3 weeks til pitchers & catchers report..Feb 11th. The team can add players to the 60 day DL on the 12th?  Who besides Jobe gets added?  Can we wait until then to add another SP? Who is the most likely to be DFA'd if we sign someone before then?

Word on the street is Harris is looking for multiple pitchers who will spend the entire season on th IL.  

[KL2]

1 hour ago, NorthWoods said:

Agree.   If Skubal's 1st choice was to stay in Detroit it seems there would have been at least minimal good faith negotiations Boras or not.   The lack of any contact tells me he's mentally out the door, another reason why I think a trade is the best course here.

Any massive extension is almost always done during spring training, wouldn't worry about timing.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9111981/justin-verlander-detroit-tigers-agrees-deal-which-worth-202-million-sources
https://www.mlb.com/news/detroit-tigers-announce-eight-year-extension-for-miguel-cabrera-c70257040
https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-blue-jays-extension
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30920472/14-years-340-million-make-fernando-tatis-jr-mega-extension-san-diego-padres

 

 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

WAR calculations don't make any sense to me.  In 2014, Scherzer and Sale both had a 6 5 WAR even though Scherzer was superior to Sale in every single statistic.  And Iwakuma had a 7.0 WAR even though he was worse than Scherzer in everything but slightly better in ERA.  

And I'm sure you can find hundreds of other examples that don't seem rational 

Both Iwakuma and Sale had better ERA+ and K/BB than Scherzer.  Scherzer was surely penalized for playing in a pitcher friendly park.  

Edited 22 hours ago by Tiger337

[buddha]

war has gone from being a really interesting statistical way to analyze player value to overrated gospel.  

it places too much emphasis on things like park effects, fielding, and base running, and not enough emphasis on hitting.  

just my .02.

like most stats, i like it when it supports my argument and dislike it when it doesnt.

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Both Iwakuma and Sale had better ERA+ and K/BB than Scherzer and Scherzer was surely penalized for playing in a pitcher friendly park.  

I suppose if they wanted to make things more transparent, they could publish how the park factor correction was for each player. They can be pretty big, esp for pitchers.

[buddha]

war has always overly benefitted starting pitchers who accumulate innings.

the fact that park effects can change year to year without any physical change to the park itself or change to the general weather patterns tells me that players who play in the park have as much or more influence on the "park effect" that season than the modelers would have you believe.