The fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

that's how they are going to get their reparations. If they are half way reasonable they'll get their way and make a nice bundle.

Reparations?

It is WAY, way worse than that.

Iran is now seeing how they can bring the entire world's economy to its knees.

They have threatened this before...

But now forced into this "opportunity" by Trump attacking them - with ZERO planning whatsoever, with NO game plan, NO end game plan - they get to see in real time just exactly what kind of trump card they hold over Drumpf and the world's head... It's four aces up their sleeve. Exposed for all the world to see.

And I'll bet that Donny two-year-old and his little temper tantrum can't even see it. 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Reparations?

It is WAY, way worse than that.

Iran is now seeing how they can bring the entire world's economy to its knees.

They have threatened this before...

But now forced into this "opportunity" by Trump attacking them - with ZERO planning whatsoever, with NO game plan, NO end game plan - they get to see in real time just exactly what kind of trump card they hold over Drumpf and the world's head... It's four aces up their sleeve. Exposed for all the world to see.

And I'll bet that Donny two-year-old and his little temper tantrum can't even see it. 

I suppose in the long run, anything and everything that makes oil more expensive can only help jolt the US into a better, future success oriented energy policy, at least after the Idiot has left the scene. From that standpoint a Persian gulf that is open but expensive wouldn't be the worst thing, EXCEPT that whatever $$ go to the mullahs definitely is a worst thing.

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I suppose in the long run, anything and everything that makes oil more expensive can only help jolt the US into a better, future success oriented energy policy, at least after the Idiot has left the scene. From that standpoint a Persian gulf that is open but expensive wouldn't be the worst thing, EXCEPT that whatever $$ go to the mullahs definitely is a worst thing.

Flip side, do higher prices incentivize the country that extracts the most oil from the ground to go all in even harder on draining the earth of every last drop of fossil fuel possible?

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Flip side, do higher prices incentivize the country that extracts the most oil from the ground to go all in even harder on draining the earth of every last drop of fossil fuel possible?

the old saying is that the Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones. If the US ties itself to oil, industrial efficiency in the rest of the world will just continue to pass us by as they operate on an energy economy that is not only cleaner, but CHEAPER. A lot of oil is going to get left in the ground around the world because it will have no economic value at its cost of recovery.

[romad1]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the old saying is that the Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones. If the US ties itself to oil, industrial efficiency in the rest of the world will just continue to pass us by as they operate on an energy economy that is not only cleaner, but CHEAPER. A lot of oil is going to get left in the ground around the world because it will have no economic value at its cost of recovery.

 

[gehringer_2]

The way technology revolutions work is a little counter intuitive. It's a little bit like trying to light a fire. You have to work hard initially to light the fire, but once lit you get back a ton more out than you put in. So we have been operating on a fire based energy economy, and that worked pretty well for a long time and as long as fire was cheap (both in explicit and external costs), there was no motivation to find anything better. But the fire based economy has become both toxic and expensive, enough to finally motivate a technological push into a different paradigm - which is direct generation of electricity from renewable sources. But once you get over the cost hump to get the new system off the ground, it's going to turn out be cheaper than the old system ever was, we just had no way to know that in advance and no reason to try to find out, but that is how technology usually works.

[1984Echoes]

14 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I suppose in the long run, anything and everything that makes oil more expensive can only help jolt the US into a better, future success oriented energy policy, at least after the Idiot has left the scene. From that standpoint a Persian gulf that is open but expensive wouldn't be the worst thing, EXCEPT that whatever $$ go to the mullahs definitely is a worst thing.

That's the positive... from the US side...

The negative I am alluding to is from the International side.

All Iran has to do is say: "We are shutting down the Hormuz" and markets will know what that means and go through whatever crash/ correction it's in the mood for at that time.

That is a heavy sledgehammer that Iran holds, not just against the US but the WORLD.

I'm trying to say this in a way that you pick up on it because it seems you keep missing this particular point.

It's not only oil. A massive amount of Nitrogen goes through Hormuz. That's farming. And it affects almost the entire world's food production. I have no idea of percentages... But it's enough to scare the rest of the world outside the US. 

In fact, the US is one of the most insulated countries in the world against these shenanigans and yet we are STILL affected deeply, even though we have our OWN Oil & Gas and Fertilizer and oil by-products industry.

Shutting the Hormuz means shutting off Oil, Gasoline, LNG, Diesel, grease and other oil-by-products, Nitrogen (farming fertilizer), and did I hear Helium production too?

This is what brings the World economy, not just the US, down to its knees. And Iran has just found out how big of a sledgehammer it actually holds.

Israel offered to develop transit pipelines to its ports... Saudi Arabia, Qatar & the Emirates & others... better find alternative pathways to get their products out to the world bypassing Hormuz... and quick.

Kuwait may be in a screwed position.

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The way technology revolutions work is a little counter intuitive. It's a little bit like trying to light a fire. You have to work hard initially to light the fire, but once lit you get back a ton more out than you put in. So we have been operating on a fire based energy economy, and that worked pretty well for a long time and as long as fire was cheap (both in explicit and external costs), there was no motivation to find anything better. But the fire based economy has become both toxic and expensive, enough to finally motivate a technological push into a different paradigm - which is direct generation of electricity from renewable sources. But once you get over the cost hump to get the new system off the ground, it's going to turn out be cheaper than the old system ever was, we just had no way to know that in advance and no reason to try to find out, but that is how technology usually works.

On this, I am 100% in agreement with...

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's the positive... from the US side...

The negative I am alluding to is from the International side.

All Iran has to do is say: "We are shutting down the Hormuz" and markets will know what that means and go through whatever crash/ correction it's in the mood for at that time.

That is a heavy sledgehammer that Iran holds, not just against the US but the WORLD.

I'm trying to say this in a way that you pick up on it because it seems you keep missing this particular point.

It's not only oil. A massive amount of Nitrogen goes through Hormuz. That's farming. And it affects almost the entire world's food production. I have no idea of percentages... But it's enough to scare the rest of the world outside the US. 

In fact, the US is one of the most insulated countries in the world against these shenanigans and yet we are STILL affected deeply, even though we have our OWN Oil & Gas and Fertilizer and oil by-products industry.

Shutting the Hormuz means shutting off Oil, Gasoline, LNG, Diesel, grease and other oil-by-products, Nitrogen (farming fertilizer), and did I hear Helium production too?

This is what brings the World economy, not just the US, down to its knees. And Iran has just found out how big of a sledgehammer it actually holds.

Israel offered to develop transit pipelines to its ports... Saudi Arabia, Qatar & the Emirates & others... better find alternative pathways to get their products out to the world bypassing Hormuz... and quick.

Kuwait may be in a screwed position.

No - I get what you are saying. But everything has its limits. If Iran becomes intransigent enough, there will be boots on the ground to remove the mullahs, possibly Chinese if not ours! 

Another aspect further out is that Iran can easily over play its hand to where its leverage  will turn out to be heavy but short lived. Everything that goes down the Persian Gulf can just as easily go by pipeline (or rail in the case of other products) to somewhere else, and those pipelines are pretty easy to build across the dessert. I imagine they are being sketched out even as we type.

In general Iran has been a very bad actor, but until fairly recently not a particularly foolish one. At this point it's hard to know how much less competent the new leadership will now be for having been degraded and additionally radicalized, but in the past I would have expected Iran to have a pretty good sense of how much pressure it could exert without bringing the temple down around themselves.. Who knows if that is still true? We have certainly increased the probability that Iran will be less rational going forward.

Edited 1 hour ago by gehringer_2