2026 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[Sports_Freak]

1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

They are the specific club and the specific player that the article sited wanted Melton (who was rated around our 9th prospect IIRC).  They did want the specific pitcher we needed and even you said you wouldn't trade.

In hindsight, sure. And now? Untouchable. There's a possibility we lose both Mize and Skubal. We'll need all the pitching we can find. But a hitter with 36 home runs and close to 100 RBI at the deadline is very tempting. Again, in hindsight, I'm glad we didn't trade for him.

[4hzglory]

8 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

36 home runs and close to 100 RBI at the trade deadline would look very good to many fans. Diving into deeper stats may have showed warning flags but sometimes those are ignored. As Chas pointed out, Tiger 3rd basemen out performed him. And like I said, his stats would (or may have) been worse at Comerica 

It doesn't matter what looks very good to many fan, his underlying stats and history from previous seasons fairly easily predicted a sharp decline in the 2nd half - maybe not quite as bad as it was, but he was way outperforming in the first 1/2 of the season (which he also did the year before).  

A GM isn't responsible to look good to the fans.  He is responsible for using the data and evaluations he has available and making a decision on the worth of that player.  It was fairly easy to see Suarez wasn't worth Melton (who they specifically required) and his profile of high K rate and poor defense didn't fit what the team needed.  And he was the biggest bat available at the deadline.  

It's easy for you to say you're not the GM, so how could you know, but that is exactly the point.  You have no idea what was available for trade and what it would take.  All we can do is go by who was traded.  Suarez brought back the biggest return of the bats, and we know they required Melton from us if we were going to get him.  So we know he wasn't a fit.  Who else should have they traded for that was traded?  Naylor? 

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

In hindsight, sure. And now? Untouchable. There's a possibility we lose both Mize and Skubal. We'll need all the pitching we can find. But a hitter with 36 home runs and close to 100 RBI at the deadline is very tempting. Again, in hindsight, I'm glad we didn't trade for him.

What I'm saying is it wasn't hindsight.  Any front office with any analytics (and looking at past history) could easily see that Suarez was extremely likely to continue the decline he was beginning to show at the deadline.  

[Edman85]

New acronym to use...

https://open.substack.com/pub/pebblehunting/p/terrible-luck-and-the-pitchers-who?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=epdue

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

If you want to put it more saberish terms, the two of them were worth ... wait for it.... 9 WAR (fangraphs) and 9 WAR of pitching talent doesn't grow on trees (as me old mum used to say).

All reasonable methods of estimation should converge toward the same value.

 

If you want to put it in more historical terms, I could find maybe 100 playoff teams where if we subtract two guys from it, they lose enough WAR to … wait for it … put them out of the playoffs. So what are we even talking about here? How terrible Harris is because he did not transcend that during a building year?  Then he’s terrible. There’s your conclusion.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If you want to put it in more historical terms, I could find maybe 100 playoff teams where if we subtract two guys from it, they lose enough WAR to … wait for it … put them out of the playoffs. So what are we even talking about here? How terrible Harris is because he did not transcend that during a building year?  Then he’s terrible. There’s your conclusion.

not at all what this was originally about. Not everything is about Harris.

The point of contention was your statement that we hadn't hit 'peak Tiger' yet because the team was great in 25 and we have peices to add. All I'm saying is that you can't just say that because in all probablilty major pieces are going to be lost. If you lose Skubal and Mize next season (assuming there is one ) you need 9 new War to get to where you were in 25 before you can say you are any better. That is no foregone conclusion. It's actually very possible '25 was 'peak Tiger.' I hope not, but that story hasn't been written. Melton and McGonigle maybe get you the 9 back, but then you still have to add from there to be better. Jobe - maybe, Oslen - maybe, Clark - maybe. And you are losing a few more when Gleyber goes.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Sports_Freak]

23 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

What I'm saying is it wasn't hindsight.  Any front office with any analytics (and looking at past history) could easily see that Suarez was extremely likely to continue the decline he was beginning to show at the deadline.  

Well, some people say pitching is a bit more valuable than position players. So Saurez was traded for a #9 prospect, a position player. And #16 and #17 ranked pitching prospects. I would say Melton was/is more valuable than another teams #9 positional prospect. Im not sure who the Tiger #9 prospect was last trade deadline but there's a good possibility it's a player who will have very little impact in MLB.

[4hzglory]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Well, some people say pitching is a bit more valuable than position players. So Saurez was traded for a #9 prospect, a position player. And #16 and #17 ranked pitching prospects. I would say Melton was/is more valuable than another teams #9 positional prospect. Im not sure who the Tiger #9 prospect was last trade deadline but there's a good possibility it's a player who will have very little impact in MLB.

Well, I didn't find their midseason update, but a quick search at Baseball America had Melton as Detroit's 24th ranked prospect preseason 2025 and MLB had him at 13th midseason. 

Edited 3 hours ago by 4hzglory

[Sports_Freak]

15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

not at all what this was originally about. Not everything is about Harris.

The point of contention was your statement that we hadn't hit 'peak Tiger' yet because the team was great in 25 and we have peices to add. All I'm saying is that you can't just say that because in all probablilty major pieces are going to be lost. If you lose Skubal and Mize next season (assuming there is one ) you need 9 new War to get to where you were in 25 before you can say you are any better. That is no foregone conclusion. It's actually very possible '25 was 'peak Tiger.' I hope not, but that story hasn't been written. Melton and McGonigle maybe get you the 9 back, but then you still have to add from there to be better. Jobe - maybe, Oslen - maybe, Clark - maybe. And you are losing a few more when Gleyber goes.

I've seen this in other sports, teams have a good season and bring everyone back, hoping to repeat previous success. Teams need to make some changes to get better, not rely on players repeating success. Javy and Mckinstry are good examples. They were really good last season but regression was predictable. As well as our RH pinch hitter, Jones. I read he was something like 1 for his last 28? Pathetic.

[Sports_Freak]

3 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Well, I didn't find their midseason update, but a quick search Baseball America had Melton as Detroit's 24th ranked prospect preseason 2025 and MLB had him at 13th midseason. 

??? You said Melton was ranked much higher?

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

??? You said Melton was ranked much higher?

I was guessing - IIRC:  If I Remember Correctly - I had him pegged a bit higher than he actually was.

[Sports_Freak]

Anyway, I heard teams wanted Melton last trade deadline and after he came up and I saw him pitch, I considered him pretty much untouchable. Tiger pitching prospects are few and far between. And pitching, IMO, is very valuable.

[4hzglory]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Anyway, I heard teams wanted Melton last trade deadline and after he came up and I saw him pitch, I considered him pretty much untouchable. Tiger pitching prospects are few and far between. And pitching, IMO, is very valuable.

So then which bat should we have acquired at the deadline 

[NorthWoods]

2 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

And pitching, IMO, is very valuable.

It's out of the box thinking like this that makes a great candidate for GM!!

[NorthWoods]

Just now, 4hzglory said:

So then which bat should we have acquired at the deadline 

Yordan Alvarez would have helped.

[monkeytargets39]

53 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

New acronym to use...

https://open.substack.com/pub/pebblehunting/p/terrible-luck-and-the-pitchers-who?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=epdue

That’s my main problem with ERA, even though overall it has a lot of high level value as a statistic.  A couple weak seeing eye ground balls or a bad hop that leads to a run counts exactly the same against a pitcher as grooving a fastball that gets hit 500 feet.

I would like to see the predominant pitcher stats be some combination of OPS against, Exit Velocity Against, and Batted Balls on the Edge of the Strike Zone against.  Or something that factors in the individual hitters xBA on a ball in a certain sector of the strike zone.  Something that minimizes the luck factor in pitching performance.

Edited 3 hours ago by monkeytargets39

[Sports_Freak]

9 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

So then which bat should we have acquired at the deadline 

I don't recall who was all available or ended up being traded, mostly Suarez. And it matters so little, I don't really care. I would have liked to get a couple of bats in the off-season but it didn't happen so it's pointless. But I really do agree with Harris, hanging onto our top prospects is the way to go. AA or A prospects? Trade bait, except pitching. And some of the utility players on the big league club should all be available. 

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

That’s my main problem with ERA, even though overall it has a lot of high level value as a statistic.  A couple weak seeing eye ground balls or a bad hop that leads to a run counts exactly the same against a pitcher as grooving a fastball that gets hit 500 feet.

I would like to see the predominant pitcher stats be some combination of OPS against, Exit Velocity Against, and Batted Balls on the Edge of the Strike Zone against.  Or something that factors in the individual hitters xBA on a ball in a certain sector of the strike zone.  

xwoba kind of does that, but it has Skubal as the #81 pitcher in baseball so I'm not sure it's the best overall measure.  mize is #29 and Anderson is #59.  I still don't think there is great single stat for measuring overall pitching.   

[monkeytargets39]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

xwoba kind of does that, but it has Skubal as the #81 pitcher in baseball so I'm not sure it's the best overall measure.  mize is #29 and Anderson is #59.  I still don't think there is great single stat for measuring overall pitching.   

There’s just way too many variables when it comes to pitching to account for everything.  Hitting and fielding are a lot cleaner to measure.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

There’s just way too many variables when it comes to pitching to account for everything.  Hitting and fielding are a lot cleaner to measure.

and different pitching styles lead to more or less of different outcomes. When JV was a dominant 4 seam FB pitcher winning CYs, he still gave up some huge exit velos when some one lucked into one. So there's sort of a dichotomy. If your weakness is the long ball, you need to have a low walk rate. If you are ground ball pitcher, you can get a lot of walks erased on DPs. So different outcomes mean different things to the effectiveness of different pitching styles. IOW - complicated.

OTOH, for the best quick and dirty measure, I think it's hard to beat WHIP.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's actually very possible '25 was 'peak Tiger.'

If 2025 was indeed “peak Tigers“—if 2025 was the team that Scott Harris envisioned building up to that he thought would make us perennial contenders—then I would agree with certain others that he should be immediately fired and replaced with someone who has a broader and longer-range vision than that. Because that team was way too flawed to be the best anyone in the PBO position could ever hope for.

Edited 2 hours ago by chasfh

[4hzglory]

48 minutes ago, NorthWoods said:

Yordan Alvarez would have helped.

 

35 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't recall who was all available or ended up being traded, mostly Suarez. And it matters so little, I don't really care. I would have liked to get a couple of bats in the off-season but it didn't happen so it's pointless. But I really do agree with Harris, hanging onto our top prospects is the way to go. AA or A prospects? Trade bait, except pitching. And some of the utility players on the big league club should all be available. 

Well, McGonigle, Clark, Rainer, Briceno Liranzo, etc were all AA or A prospects at last years deadline.

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

If 2025 was indeed “peak Tigers“—if 2025 was the team that Scott Harris envisioned building up to that he thought would make us perennial contenders—then I would agree with certain others that he should be immediately fired and replaced with someone who has a longer range vision than that. Because that team was way too flawed to be the best anyone in the PBO position could ever hope for.

Exactly, and as you so well posted at the time, the decline in August/September were all the non-Harris hitters.  The Harris acquired hitters actually stayed basically the same. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

not at all what this was originally about. Not everything is about Harris.

The point of contention was your statement that we hadn't hit 'peak Tiger' yet because the team was great in 25 and we have peices to add. All I'm saying is that you can't just say that because in all probablilty major pieces are going to be lost. If you lose Skubal and Mize next season (assuming there is one ) you need 9 new War to get to where you were in 25 before you can say you are any better. That is no foregone conclusion. It's actually very possible '25 was 'peak Tiger.' I hope not, but that story hasn't been written. Melton and McGonigle maybe get you the 9 back, but then you still have to add from there to be better. Jobe - maybe, Oslen - maybe, Clark - maybe. And you are losing a few more when Gleyber goes.

I hope 2025 is not peak peak Tigers, but if they fail this year and then lose Skubal and Mize, there is a very good chance it will take a couple more years to get back to that level.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Tiger337

[Sports_Freak]

11 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

 

Well, McGonigle, Clark, Rainer, Briceno Liranzo, etc were all AA or A prospects at last years deadline.

Would you trade any of those players for a championship?