The 2028 Presidential Field aka der Kampf um die Präsidentschaftswahl 2028 if you are in the GOP

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I know homosexuality has always been a concept, but the concept of gay identity is relatively new.  It's all kind of a moot point anyway because no openly gay person has ever made it to the general election.  I think the odds would be against that person winning the election.  

don't disagree, was just indirectly making the point that whatever people's parameters are for opposing a candidate based on his sexual identity, they have probably voted for or supported gay people in the past and been none-the-wiser nor worse off for it. And ironically enough recent history seem to indicate this is at least as if not more true for Republicans. 

Edited June 15 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

don't disagree, was just indirectly making the point that whatever people's parameters are for opposing a candidate based on his sexual identity, they have probably voted for or supported gay people in the past and been none-the-wiser nor worse off for it. And ironically enough recent history seem to indicate this is at least as if not more true for Republicans. 

Stuart Stevens has a very interesting take on that in his book.  That pre-Stonewall world of the GOP operatives made me think they were all just the people who had to get out of their towns and working in GOP politics in DC was the best, most acceptable path for them to do that so they didn't get disinherited. 

[Motown Bombers]

Pritzker is the best candidate but he's eliminated because he's a Jew. His weight would also be an issue if he doesn't lose it. Ossof and Shapiro are eliminated because they are Jews. Beshear is a top candidate. Harris is still a top candidate. Buttigieg is still questionable as I don't know if he has the black support yet. Newsom is a top candidate. Whitmer has been a huge disappointment during Trump 2.0. Slotkin is a dark horse. 

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Pritzker for the Dems?

I would vote for him, although the elephant in the room is that he's Jewish, which will lose him votes on the margins where elections are lost.

[chasfh]

33 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Pritzker is the best candidate but he's eliminated because he's a Jew. His weight would also be an issue if he doesn't lose it. Ossof and Shapiro are eliminated because they are Jews. Beshear is a top candidate. Harris is still a top candidate. Buttigieg is still questionable as I don't know if he has the black support yet. Newsom is a top candidate. Whitmer has been a huge disappointment during Trump 2.0. Slotkin is a dark horse. 

If Jewish is a barrier, than black Hindi woman is definitely a barrier.

Harris has already lost once. Unless she has some amazing statesman-like transformation in demeanor and perception in the two years, I think I've seen enough.

[romad1]

Gavin Newsom's stock just shot up this afternoon.  

[ben9753]

If they go with Harris again I'll be convinced they really are addicted to losing.

[Motown Bombers]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If Jewish is a barrier, than black Hindi woman is definitely a barrier.

Harris has already lost once. Unless she has some amazing statesman-like transformation in demeanor and perception in the two years, I think I've seen enough.

She lost by 1.5%. Trump lost by 7 million votes but still came back and won. Polls have her leading the primary. The absolute worst thing you can be is a Jew. 

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, ben9753 said:

If they go with Harris again I'll be convinced they really are addicted to losing.

Who is they?

[romad1]

so, is Trump thinking that Newsom is a preferred opponent for his favored candidate and that is why he's promoting him by the illegal harassment campaign?   Its obvious Trump manipulates markets and understands that when he attacks someone its good PR for that person. 

[Motown Bombers]

It's probably because Newsom has been so good at trolling Trump. 

[romad1]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

It's probably because Newsom has been so good at trolling Trump. 

You see, when I sarcastically ascribe some higher plan to what Trump is doing you bring it back to the fact that he's a moron and a toddler and I agree you are probably right. 

[romad1]

Here is this

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2028/polls

 

[romad1]

RCP (R site) has it as

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2028/national 

Harris 27%

Newsome 17%

Buttegeig 12%

AOC 11%

Shapiro 6%

Kelly 6% (that number surprises me...thought he'd poll better). 

I'm not buying those numbers.  

 

[romad1]

Polymarket saw Newsome's numbers move up today. 

[gehringer_2]

As long as other serious (as in not Bernie) candidates run against Harris she will probably not get the nomination.

 

[Motown Bombers]

52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

As long as other serious (as in not Bernie) candidates run against Harris she will probably not get the nomination.

 

She literally leads in every poll regardless of candidate. 

[romad1]

here is the front runner for the GOP

 

[gehringer_2]

36 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She literally leads in every poll regardless of candidate. 

elections have a certain reality to them that preseason polls lack.  Esp now because her fans are all still her fans, but the people who will vote for some one else are still going in a million directions. The poll above showed her 'in the lead' at 27% but at this point that could as easily be her ceiling as well.

Edited June 15 by gehringer_2

[GalagaGuy]

AOC is going to run and it's going to be a repeat of the same nonsense that handed Trump the 2016 election.  

[chasfh]

52 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She literally leads in every poll regardless of candidate. 

Harris led in polls over Trump by more than a point as late as November 4 and got legitimately whipped. Hillary led Trump in multiple polls, including Fox news, all the way up to election day and got TKO'ed. Polls means nearly nothing.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

If Jewish is a barrier, than black Hindi woman is definitely a barrier.

Harris has already lost once. Unless she has some amazing statesman-like transformation in demeanor and perception in the two years, I think I've seen enough.

If the Democrats push her on us again...SMH

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Harris led in polls over Trump by more than a point as late as November 4 and got legitimately whipped. Hillary led Trump in multiple polls, including Fox news, all the way up to election day and got TKO'ed. Polls means nearly nothing.

They used to work before Trump.  They might start working again if he's not involved.  

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They used to work before Trump.  They might start working again if he's not involved.  

It's essentially impossible to avoid getting a self-selected sample in any poll today, which pretty much means what you are getting is not real poll results, but some raw data that is them massaged by a pollster to remove the biases he  believes are there. You might as well drop the data and just go with what the better guys doing the adjusting think- because their contribution as astute political analysts is probably more important than the data now.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's essentially impossible to avoid getting a self-selected sample in any poll today, which pretty much means what you are getting is not real poll results, but some raw data that is them massaged by a pollster to remove the biases he  believes are there. You might as well drop the data and just go with what the better guys doing the adjusting think- because their contribution as astute political analysts is probably more important than the data now.

Yes, I think that's right.  Either that or follow the gamblers.  They got it right!