Tiger337 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: and the second sentence is true in an absolute sense, but not necessarily a statistical one. Carpenter and Keith may not be very good against lefties, but they both have better career OPS splits against LHP than Jones this season. Were they used against random LHP or were they situationally used against guys they had a better chance to hit? Quote
Sports_Freak Posted June 21 Posted June 21 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Were they used against random LHP or were they situationally used against guys they had a better chance to hit? There really may be something to this. At the game, my son asked me why Hinch would start Carpenter against a LH pitcher but then pull him when Chicago pulled their RH pitcher for a LH pitcher. I replied that there must be some stat that Hinch knew about that we didn't know. The move was a total fail, Carpenter could just as easily struck out and still been in the game after the 5th inning for more at bats. But successful indirectly, Outman came into the game and had a very nice game. 2 hits, an RBI, and a stolen base. It ended up being a somewhat successful move by Hinch, gotta give him credit for that. But the crowd let him and Jones know just how unhappy they were with the move when Jones struck out. The boos and jeers were somewhat deafening. A very unpopular decision. Quote
Sports_Freak Posted June 21 Posted June 21 3 hours ago, Edman85 said: So an account can just throw "Data" in its name and claim a perfect metric. There is no way the inputs to that account are omniscient nor have even 10% of the necessary info going in to Hinch's decision. I saw that tweet the other day, and it looked like junk math to me. As I told my friend that sent that to me the other day, that account is hanging out on the left peak of the Dunning-Kruger curve... It's been said that 73% of all stats on the internet are made up. 😅😅 Quote
Edman85 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 3 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It sounds like it is just a retrospect stat measuring pinch hitting and reliever success and not an evluation of manager decisions. There is no way of knowing whether a different decision would have yielded a better result. Yep... and there's no way of knowing if a reliever wasn't brought in because of the manager's choice or if they knew the reliever wasn't available (hangover, hang nail, barking elbow, etc.) Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 (edited) 4 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Were they used against random LHP or were they situationally used against guys they had a better chance to hit? I think it's fair to assume that with Hinch, the ABs that Keith and Carpenter had against LHP would be mostly random because they had been inserted against a RHP then had another AB against a random lefty that came into the game. Hinch doesn't start his platoon lefties against LHP starters often enough (ever?) for it be much of a thing - unless it's against an 'opener' which again would not be based often on a favorable matchup but on the fact that AB against RHP were going to be pending. Edited June 21 by gehringer_2 Quote
Shelton Posted June 21 Posted June 21 I hated that Jones PH yesterday in the moment. I do wonder whether it was likely that Kerry would also come up against a lefty in his next AB, too. Rock ended up pitching 2.1 innings. And Murphy pitched later. Plus, Vierling in CF and Kerry in RF was not ideal so being able to insert outman in CF and move vierling to RF was a positive side effect. Outman did go 2x2 in that spot with an RBI and run scored. Does Hinch get credit in the database for this series of events? 1 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted June 21 Posted June 21 8 minutes ago, Shelton said: I hated that Jones PH yesterday in the moment. I do wonder whether it was likely that Kerry would also come up against a lefty in his next AB, too. Rock ended up pitching 2.1 innings. And Murphy pitched later. Plus, Vierling in CF and Kerry in RF was not ideal so being able to insert outman in CF and move vierling to RF was a positive side effect. Outman did go 2x2 in that spot with an RBI and run scored. Does Hinch get credit in the database for this series of events? The early Jones failed at bat was predictable. The offensive success of Outman wasn't as predictable. As a fan, I really like the speed and defense Outman brings. And any success he has should also be credited to Harris for bringing him here. Quote
casimir Posted June 21 Author Posted June 21 (edited) 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: well I'd say 6 because I think SGL is pretty doubtful MLB material. You do have unproven #2s there after Melton. Madden has shown some flashes. Jobe and Olson have the stuff but we don't know if either can stay on the field. If they don't go fire sale at the deadline I think there is a reasonable chance Mize is back - that should be a doable deal if they aren't paying Skubal. Agree. I think folks fell in love with Gipson-Long’s debut but have not seen recent results which aren’t all that good. I suppose there’s value in him as a player with minor league options, but once those are exhausted, is anyone really excited about him being a top 5 of the rotation? Edited June 21 by casimir Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 5 minutes ago, casimir said: Agree. I think folks fell in love with his debut but have not seen recent results which aren’t all that good. I suppose there’s value in him as a player with minor league options, but once those are exhausted, is anyone really excited about him being a top 5 of the rotation? We happened to be at the game in Toledo when he struck out 12 in 6 shutout innings. Not sure anything since has been quite as promising. Quote
Tiger337 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: I think it's fair to assume that with Hinch, the ABs that Keith and Carpenter had against LHP would be mostly random because they had been inserted against a RHP then had another AB against a random lefty that came into the game. Hinch doesn't start his platoon lefties against LHP starters often enough (ever?) for it be much of a thing - unless it's against an 'opener' which again would not be based often on a favorable matchup but on the fact that AB against RHP were going to be pending. Another thing is looking at career numbers, these are the OPS against LHP: Jones .761 Keith .585 Carpenter .593 I think the comparison is fair since the point that Keith hit LHP in 2024 so he should be able hit them now is often brought up. To be clear, I don't know why Jones is still on the team but I don't think putting Carpenter or Keith against lefties has very good odds either. The only reason I can think that he is still on the team is that Hinch sees something that makes him think he could return to his past form. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 - Riley against a LHP, Jones against a RHP. 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Another thing is looking at career numbers, these are the OPS against LHP: Jones .761 Keith .585 Carpenter .593 I think the comparison is fair since the point that Keith hit LHP in 2024 so he should be able hit them now is often brought up. To be clear, I don't know why Jones is still on the team but I don't think putting Carpenter or Keith against lefties has very good odds either. The only reason I can think that he is still on the team is that Hinch sees something that makes him think he could return to his past form. I tend to think Harris as been out there beating the bushes to come up with a couple of players - he found a glove (we hope) in Outman, but I'm sure he's still burning cellular minutes looking for a RH hitter of any description and until then Hinch would rather stick with what he's doing. I still question that - mostly in Keith's case as compared to other guys. You've made an investment in Keith and in cases were the value of PHing for him is looking pretty marginal anyway, you'd think it's the ideal situation to give him a little run to see what he might be able to grow into. Granted, he didn't do much with his big chance against a LHP just now in the 10th - took a slightly brain dead Gonzales (thank-you very much!) to get him on base there. 😂 Quote
chasfh Posted June 22 Posted June 22 18 hours ago, Tiger337 said: To be clear, I don't know why Jones is still on the team but I don't think putting Carpenter or Keith against lefties has very good odds either. The only reason I can think that he is still on the team is that Hinch sees something that makes him think he could return to his past form. We can see something for ourselves in Jones’s exit velo, hard hit rate, and xwOBAcon. Quote
Tiger337 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 55 minutes ago, chasfh said: We can see something for ourselves in Jones’s exit velo, hard hit rate, and xwOBAcon. He is doing ok on those numbers, better than Colt Keith, but not as good as last year. He is not doing so great on other indicators. He is kind of all over the place. Quote
NorthWoods Posted June 22 Posted June 22 4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: He is doing ok on those numbers, better than Colt Keith, but not as good as last year. He is not doing so great on other indicators. He is kind of all over the place. We do know now that he's motivated to run faster by vigorous booing. Quote
Tiger337 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 5 minutes ago, NorthWoods said: We do know now that he's motivated to run faster by vigorous booing. We need a stat for that. Adjusted Boo Factor Quote
Edman85 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 20 hours ago, Tiger337 said: To be clear, I don't know why Jones is still on the team but I don't think putting Carpenter or Keith against lefties has very good odds either. The only reason I can think that he is still on the team is that Hinch sees something that makes him think he could return to his past form. He was also saved by injuries to others. How temporary that reprieve is will depend on if he snaps out of it. Quote
chasfh Posted June 22 Posted June 22 16 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: He is doing ok on those numbers, better than Colt Keith, but not as good as last year. He is not doing so great on other indicators. He is kind of all over the place. Nobody can say Jahmai Jones is having a good year, but he is in the top quartile in the league for each of those metrics I listed if we stretch out the qualification criterion to his number of plate appearances. But he is also in the bottom decile in strikeout rate, and that's obviously a huge drag on his overall performance. Even so, it's the kind of skill set taken together where, were he delivering to the same wOBA as his xwOBA indicates, he would be acceptably a middle of the pack hitter, good enough to fill a specialist role on a major league bench. I think that's what Harris and Hinch are seeing, and what the rest of us are missing. Quote
Tiger337 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 5 minutes ago, chasfh said: Nobody can say Jahmai Jones is having a good year, but he is in the top quartile in the league for each of those metrics I listed if we stretch out the qualification criterion to his number of plate appearances. But he is also in the bottom decile in strikeout rate, and that's obviously a huge drag on his overall performance. Even so, it's the kind of skill set taken together where, were he delivering to the same wOBA as his xwOBA indicates, he would be acceptably a middle of the pack hitter, good enough to fill a specialist role on a major league bench. I think that's what Harris and Hinch are seeing, and what the rest of us are missing. I am confident that they have stuck with him for baseball reasons and not out of stubborness Quote
chasfh Posted June 22 Posted June 22 Just now, Tiger337 said: I am confident that they have stuck with him for baseball reasons and not out of stubborness As am I, and we appear to be in the minority here on that. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 22 Posted June 22 (edited) 4 hours ago, chasfh said: We can see something for ourselves in Jones’s exit velo, hard hit rate, and xwOBAcon. the problem with the exit velo is that it's tied to a terrible LD rate. He's got good bat speed but he's not centering the ball so he doesn't have 'barrels' to match the EV. That's a pretty mixed bag. And not centering the ball actually would tie in with K rate. Makes sense if you are missing by a little on your best swings you are missing completely on your worst. Edited June 22 by gehringer_2 Quote
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