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2022-23 Pistons Preview and Predictions Thread


Betrayer
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Here's my preview and my predictions for the Pistons this season. Please post any predictions you have for players, overall record, or even general NBA predictions (or just feel free to poke holes in my predictions). It'll be fun to look back at the end of the season and see how close (or far) we were from the truth.

Last Season's Record (with some interesting slices):

Overall Record: 23-59, 28% - 3rd worst in NBA
Since January 1st: 18-31, 37%
After All-Star: 10-14, 42%

With Cade since January 1st: 15-24, 39%

Without Grant Overall: 12-23, 34%
Without Grant since Jan 1st: 11-15, 42%

2022-23 Projected Lineup

Projected Starters: Cunningham, Ivey, Bey, Bogdanovic, Stewart
Primary Reserves: Hayes, Burks, Livers, Bagley, Noel (slowly giving way to Duren)
Situational Players: Diallo, McGruder, Joseph, Knox

Notable Departures

Jerami Grant: Addition by subtraction. The Pistons had a better record without Grant in the lineup and both Cade and Bey had better numbers and percentages without him as well. Jerami was a solid player, but he was playing above his level, taking a lot of inefficient shots, and rarely engaged defensively or on the boards.

Kelly Olynyk: Kelly had one of the worst statistical seasons of his recent career, and one that was plagued with injuries/illnesses. Addition by subtraction here as well.

Frank Jackson: A gamble that didn't work out. Frank returned to his norm (31% from three) and proved that his previous season's 40% from 3 was not sustainable, even though he still took the third most threes per game (5.3) on the team. Other than his 2000's era long shorts and his mustache, he won't be missed.

Notable Additions

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren: As excited as I am to watch them, we don't know what these kids will bring in their rookie years. The only thing I'll say is that the team addressed a huge need in the offseason by getting what could be the 2 most gifted athletes in the entire draft.

Alec Burks: Proven shooter who can score in bunches. Scored nearly 12 ppg last season on 40% from three and also added in 5 rebounds and 3 assists to just 1 turnover. Clear and proven upgrade over Frank Jackson. He'll add some much needed spacing to this team and probably play a lot of 4th quarter minutes for Casey.

Nerlens Noel: Veteran shot blocker and paint defender (with terrible hands on offense). He'll play early in the season as Duren gets his feet under him, but I expect his minutes to dwindle due to injury, trade, or simply to make room for Duren as the season progresses. Nice depth piece with veteran experience, solid defense, and verticality.

Bojan Bogdanovic: An absolute steal of a trade from Weaver. Underrated player who will slot in next to Bey at the other Forward spot and provides exactly what this team needs on offense - more spacing. He's flown under the radar, but Bojan averaged 18 ppg, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 45.5% FG, 38.7% 3PT, and 60 TS%. He was a dependable 30 mpg starter on a high caliber Western Conference playoff team, and he's done it for years. He'll be a clear offensive upgrade over Grant, with much higher efficiency and provide better spacing. The defense is mediocre, but I've read that he plays hard and is a better defender than most think - either way, we weren't getting much from Grant on D last year either.

Using History to Project the 2022-23 Record

Since Jan 1, 2022 the Pistons were 37% overall, but they were up to 42% in certain slices (for instance, without Grant). That would put them at 30 to 34 wins if all things remained equal.

However, I believe this team got better:
-The spacing is better with Bojan and Burks, alongside any 3pt shooting improvements from Cade, Bey, and Stew
-The athleticism is much improved with Ivey and Duren
-I expect that Cade, Bey, and Stew (and maybe Hayes?) will have continued to improve overall
-The big-man situation isn't the train wreck it was for most of last year before they got Bagley

But, then again:
-They're still super young and historically young teams struggle in the NBA
-The East is absolutely brutal this year

And Finally, My Prediction...

35-47, 11th in the East: I expect the floor to be 30 wins and the ceiling to be 39, so I went with 35 wins and a 11th place finish in the East over Orlando, Indiana, Charlotte, and Washington.

This is about 5 wins higher than what I would have predicted if you asked me before the Bojan trade came in.

I expect the Knicks to be around the 40 win mark to get them into the 10th seed play-in game. I don't expect the Pistons to get to 40+ wins and a play-in spot unless Ivey comes out looking like rookie Dwayne Wade and Cade comes out looking like second year Luka (but we can hope).

 

Edited by Betrayer
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11 hours ago, sabretooth said:

BB and Burks are the key.  They need sharpshooters who can improve the teams scoring efficiency, which has sucked.

Absolutely. Replacing Grant (36%) and Jackson (31%) with Bojan (39%) and Burks (40%) clearly upgrades their floor spacing. I also forgot to mention a full season of Livers (42%) in place of Lyles (30%). We've already seen flashes from Stewart to end last year and in Summer League that show he may be a willing and capable 3pt shooter this year. And I expect Cade and Bey will have better numbers just by putting their 2021 rough starts behind them if nothing else. You'll have some drop-off with Ivey taking Joseph's minutes (41% on 2.4 attempts per game), but Ivey will collapse the defense a ton to create open shots for others, so I see it as a net gain.

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7 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Absolutely. Replacing Grant (36%) and Jackson (31%) with Bojan (39%) and Burks (40%) clearly upgrades their floor spacing. I also forgot to mention a full season of Livers (42%) in place of Lyles (30%). We've already seen flashes from Stewart to end last year and in Summer League that show he may be a willing and capable 3pt shooter this year. And I expect Cade and Bey will have better numbers just by putting their 2021 rough starts behind them if nothing else. You'll have some drop-off with Ivey taking Joseph's minutes (41% on 2.4 attempts per game), but Ivey will collapse the defense a ton to create open shots for others, so I see it as a net gain.

Yep, thats the plan.  Hopefully Ivey and Cade can also shoot well enough to keep defenses off balance.

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Fun fact.  Procida played in Lega Basket Serie A and was the third youngest player in league history to score 24 points in a game.  The first two?  Luigi Datome and Carlos Delfino, both former Pistons.

Procida signed with Alba Berlin this summer and will play in Germanys top league, Basketball Bundesliga.  That is the league Killian played in while in Germany.   One major difference, Procida's team will also play in Euroleague, something Killian never did.  We will get a better idea on him after he plays in Euroleague since most consider that the best league in the world after the NBA.

DBB did a nice write up on him after the draft.

NBA Draft: Gabriele Procida is a “draft and stash” pick worth monitoring

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Looking for some improvement from players in the first preseason game tonight against the Knicks.  Cade looks a lot stronger but not seeing anything different in his game early.  Ivey looks great.  If you wondered if his explosiveness would stand out against the best athletes in the world, I think you have your answer already.  

Really glad Killian is no longer in the starting lineup.  

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