I think the range is fairly close to the election outcome. The blowback from school administrators is the big key.
One note, unlike places like Michigan (and to a certain extent Illinois) school districts for the most part follow city or county lines. One district per localities. Cities are mostly independent from the counties. Even the deep red localities have pushed back on his "orders".
The Attorney General is much worse. His recent wave of firing lawyers coincides with his mandates to state colleges, giving them little leverage to challenge in court.
Also to MT's question last night, there is a recall, it has to go thru the courts and not the ballot box (I don't oppose that, not a big fan of recalls.) They would need a legal reason besides incompetence to remove him
Governors are also term limited to one term. They can run again after sitting out a term. it's been that way since King George.