1984Echoes

This.

They've been chasing Bakhmut for at least 6 weeks now = ZERO results. And it's all Prigozhin's Wagner Group too. Including all the prison-soldiers he desperately turned to that have turned into... nothing but untrained cannon fodder. This is egg on both Putin's AND Prigozhin's faces...

HAH!!! Great minds and all !!!

That's exactly what I am getting at...

You can even put that on a sliding scale: Probability of achieving 1 WAR = 75% = Tigers very comfortable offering at least $3 mill Probability of achieving 1-2 WAR = 50% = Tigers OK offering $5 mill Probability of achieving 2.5 or better WAR = 20% = Tigers uncomfortable going over a $5 mill offer due to a greater probability of player being unable to achieve. There is also downside risk, and also the possibility that even in a recovery there is no trade value for player at the deadline. Too much risk. Probability of achieving Less than 1 WAR including possible negative WAR = 40% = Cost of doing business. But cap offer at no higher than $5 mill. If the Tigers are doing this.. then I am very comfortable with their decision making so far...

But it's still an overpay, based on last year's numbers. I think the "market" may be a REASON there are overpays, but it doesn't negate the fact that an overpay is still an overpay. Hasn't everyone already agreed that the ridiculous contracts that Rotation Starters (and the SS signings too) this year are signing are all (mostly) overpays? Market value yes, but overpays nonetheless.

Eloquently stated and the "MAIN" reason I believe Harris moved on. Willing to take the risk he might get back on track at $5 mill but not willing to go above that.

Teams do this all the time. Teams are always taking risks on recovery projects, injury or otherwise. Two things: (1) We just gave Boyd $10 mill and he only pitched 13 innings last year. Please calculate the % overpay we just did on this deal, I'll be interested in that number. (2) Teams are NOT paying Candy based on 2022 numbers. (whether that was us or Washington). As Tenacious eludes to: He is being paid on the RISK that he can get back to 2021 numbers or something closely approximating that. You don't pay $5 mill for someone who gives you 0 or negative WAR. I contend that the MAIN reason Harris let Candy go non-tendered was that he didn't want to take the RISK that Candy could get back to 2021 numbers or not, at $7 mill (but would do so at $5 mill so I guess that is the other factor... call that "risk tolerance factor" ?), and instead decided he would take the RISK that he could fill that position using alternate methods and get the same expected production (2.5-ish WAR?) from other players, regardless of the cost. IE If they give $7 mill to Evan Longoria as a stopgap (who is 37 y.o. and has played about a half, or less, of the games in each of the past 2 years...) then Harris has simply decided that paying Longoria $7 mill instead of Candy $7 mill for 2023 is the better RISK.

Could be...

Why didn't they do that LAST week...?

The flipside is... The dice still could have been rolled that he would recover to a 3-ish WAR level (definitely risk there) and traded him before the deadline for something of value. That might be different (given our recent history...). This is where I was at... But now that he's gone... nothing I can do but move on. My preference was that he be tendered though. Too late. No crying over spilt milk...

Because that would be a "hidden" special teams Ace of Spades hidden up their sleeves...

I'm just now thinking in 20-20 hindsight... They HEAVILY overloaded the Left Side (Jets rightside) of the Line... Did they influence Zeurlein to avoid them and kick it too far to the inside left (Jets side) of the FG? Because, it started left, and straight, and kept going left until it missed to the left... NAW!!! I must be IMAGINING that...! RIGHT?!?! (to anyone in general...)

WHEW!!! What a MF'reakin' TOUGH WIN!!!

Okudah gives up 22 on a 3rd and 19. Not a #1 CB...

HAHAHA!!! Holy SHIT! Brock WRIGHT!

Not enough play-action when you know the defense is going to key on Jamaal...

Depending on how the draft falls... I think it would be hard to line up two CB's... But - again, depending on how the draft falls - I'll take a CB, Safety, coverage LB'er or better, another Pass-Rusher, etc...

And he stepped INTO that throw... Cringe-worthy.

On that last run when they went to Jamaal again... I screamed "NO!" as soon as he handed it off and then "BOOTLEG it dammit!" At that point I think everyone in the stadium knew it was going to Jamaal and he subsequently got swarmed by 4 Jets defenders before he got to the line of scrimmage. Not certain if a bootleg would've worked there... but they're going to have to start faking it to Jamaal in a play-action or bootleg or other because teams are getting wise...

+1. On that 2nd holding, he should have bull-punched the guy in the chest as hard as he could... the defender would've gone flying out of bounds... instead, he grabbed the outside of the shoulder pads (announcers called it) and gets the holding. Shoulda crushed the guy...

You don't know what you're talking about.

I think Okudah is good... but like buddha, I don't believe he's "very good". He's had multiple PI's in the end zone, not just this game (which they didn't call an obvious one on him... lucky for the Lions). He can cover... but he's not gifted and can be beat, or PI'd when he knows he's beat. Can he get better? Don't know. But I'm not arguing against a 1st round CB in next year's draft at all... Especially if the Rams pick drops closer to top 10 rather than top 5... I'm looking at that pick for CB.

No, that's NOT what I said. Harris needs to fix all the broken parts/ mistakes Avila made. But... It would be HILARIOUS if 90% of our next playoff team was Avila parts...! I would definitely LOL.

Keep pouring it on Colts... Need to consolidate that Rams draft pick position...