Going back to the Texans’ situation with just under 2 minutes to go. 5 possible outcomes:
A) - successful FG, lead by 3, give Lions ball back around Lions 30 yard line (after kickoff) with around 1:50 to go
B) miss FG, tied, give Lions ball back at the Lions 48 yard line with 1:51 to go
C) successful going for it on 4th and 4, tied, possess the ball with a 1st down at the Lions 35 yard line or closer
D) - fail going for it on 4th and 4, tied, give Lions ball back around the Lions 40 with around 1:50 to go
E) - punt, tied, give the Lions the ball back at, say, around the Lions 10-20 yard line with around 1:50 to go
I think choosing C/D might have been the highest percentage play for the Texans over choosing A/B
Why? I wonder what the stats would show are the odds of hitting a 58 yarder (factoring the Texans kicker’s strong leg) vs converting on 4th. Probably a bit under 50/50, maybe 40% for both? Missing the FG or being stopped on 4th down would be roughly equally bad. But would it be better to be successful on that FG or successful on the 4th and 4? The FG would have put the Texans ahead but the Lions would have the ball with plenty of time. Converting the 4th down would have kept the game tied, but the Texans would have a fresh set of downs closer to a reasonable FG range, with 3 downs to move it closer and/or run time off the clock and/or get the Lions to burn timeouts.