538 has him ahead. Polls are within single digits. By early, I mean freaking out in July. People don't pay attention until after Labor Day. This all happened after the debate. Are Dems going to piss all over themselves if a new dem has a set back?
Do they know something we don't? The polls show this as a toss up. I cannot understand forcing out the incumbent this early who has a successful track record and no scandals.