Motown Bombers

*Ducks*

How many #2 picks are so bad they are inactive not due to injury by year two and not become a bust?

Even "bad Goff" made the playoffs with the Rams and won a playoff game in Seattle. Looking at the 2018 team, you have Cooks who is the upside for Williams, Kupp who is played by St Brown on the Lions, and Robert Woods who is pretty much a healthy Chark. Gurley was better than any RB the Lions currently have but this wasn't a team that was just so great any QB could have been inserted. If it was, that's great because one of the main architects of that team is currently the Lions GM.

You know who else saw a decline in QBR after peaking early? Matthew Stafford. In 2011 his QBR was 60.5. It didn't reach above 60 until 2016. It bottomed out at 44 in 2014, which ironically was the one year Stafford made the Pro Bowl. Stafford has never had a 3:1 TD/INT ratio in a full season. I also find it interesting that Goff's INT rate declined immediately upon leaving the Rams and Stafford's INT rate was the second highest of his career in LA. Maybe there is something about that Rams offense. When Stafford peaked in 2011 he was 23. When Goff peaked in 17 and 18 he was 23-24. When Stafford got back to a plus 60 QBR, he was 28. Goff is now back to a plus 60 QBR at age 28. What happened when Stafford turned it around at age 28? Jim Bob Cooter became offensive coordinator. What happened when Goff turned 28 and turned it around? Ben Johnson became offensive coordinator. We can look at net yards gained per attempt. Stafford peaked in 2011 (which is still lower than Goff's peak) declined and hit bottom in 2018. Goff's career high would be higher than Stafford's career high and Goff's current net yards gained per attempt currently would be the 3rd highest of Stafford's career. Goff's QB rating dipped below 90 once to 86.5. Stafford's dipped below 90 following that 2011 season for three seasons in a row bottoming out at 79. It's also not 4 years of decline. It's 3 years since Goff is reverting back to his 17-18 self. I know KL2 is absolutely salivating to rip this apart. I'm simply illustrating that there is precedent for a QB to peak early, decline, and peak again. The career arc of Stafford and Goff are remarkably similar. Goff actually showed two seasons of high level play before declining whereas Stafford had one. The decline and resurgence are at the same ages and they both coincide with offensive coordinator changes.

Not convinced Goff can sustain this level of play despite Goff sustaining this level of play over full seasons previously in his career.

Goff reminds me of Doug Fister. Doesn't have overpowering stuff and when he was on Seattle had a terrible W-L record, but on a good team he was very effective.

That is some of the criticism I read of him. Apparently he was becoming disgruntled in Seattle because he wanted to win an MVP but couldn't do it since they run the ball too much. He also didn't give his phone number out to teammates and you had to contact his PR firm. He seems very concerned about his image.

It's interesting I have heard some of Wilson's former teammates in Seattle not say the greatest things about him. Seems like a pretty weird guy. I think we are seeing more of it come to light since he isn't winning.

Look at the pass he made to Chark for the long TD. You can see a receiver come wide open in the middle of the field about 6-7 yards down field. That would probably be an easy 1st down. Instead, he made no hesitation and threw a perfect strike downfield for a TD. It's weird what legit deep threats can do but instead people focus on what he couldn't do with the likes of Raymond, Kennedy and Hodge last year. Even Aaron Rodgers has proven to be mortal when the offensive line isn't as good and the receivers are inexperienced. Green Bay thought Rodgers would just make magic without Adams.

This is another argument I like. He's not good when you have a shit team around him so lets draft another QB we hope can be good with a shit team around him. It's Stafford 2.0 if you are lucky.

A 28 year old QB who is top 7 in QBR, but was also drafted #1 overall not that long ago and has a couple Pro Bowls under his belt. A QB who played well enough to convince the Rams he was the long term answer and gave him a long term contract. This isn't a situation like Geno Smith where he suddenly has a good year. Goff is playing at the level he was playing at in 2017 and 2018.

Goff's road numbers will be the new he doesn't beat good teams.

Does this buy Kingsbury another year?

Houston looked like they had a good thing going. They had Watson and Hopkins and ended up trading Hopkins for an injured RB and traded what ended up being the 3rd overall pick for Tunsil.

My prediction: winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I think the Lions win 13-10. Jets jump out to an early 1st quarter lead of 10-0 but do not score the rest of the game. The Lions win is aided by a controversial INT in the end zone by Okudah. Mike White struggles with the crowd noise which is odd since it's a home game for him. Swift rushes for 184 yards with a big 53 yard run under 2 minutes to ice the game.

I think Brunell would be on that short list as well. I think you would want someone close to Goff who Goff is comfortable with. I think Kelvin Shephard is probably on the short list. Todd Walsh does have experience as a defensive coordinator and was coordinator for that Sacksonville team. I used to think Pleasant was in line for the coordinator job. Oops.

So, Rams still hold onto the 4th pick. Seattle via Denver moves into 2nd and Chicago moves to 3rd. I think QBs go 1 and 2, Will Anderson likely goes to Chicago, so I think the Lions have to select Carter at 4. Someone who can generate pass rush up the middle with Hutchinson on one side and Paschal/Houston on the other and you have one formidable line. Go CB with the Lions pick and then add a LB in the 2nd. I would like to see a RG by the third round if they don't sign one in free agency. Maybe look for a project RB in the 5th to groom before Swift hits free agency.

Good teams develop coaches from within. I expect the Lions to promote other coaches to coordinator positions if they get hired.

I've seen a couple in the national media say the Lions are the 3rd best team in the NFC right now and I'm not sure I disagree. Philadelphia, San Francisco and then who else? I think an argument can be made for Dallas, but other than that, I don't see an NFC team that is better right now.

There could be some better options. The NFC South is terrible so it could come down to Tampa and Atlanta playing that week. You have Baltimore and Cincinnati which could be for the AFC North. Jets at Dolphins could also be a win or go home game. Giants could be in a win or go home against Philadelphia. Same with Washington vs Dallas. Lot of options.

Definitely going to get a Monday Night game. I would even say as of right now the Lions would be favorites for the division so the Lions will get some prime time games. Plus the league owes them one for letting Buffalo use Ford Field. One Moday Night game should be at home.

I'm kind of surprised Decker hasn't gotten more Pro Bowl buzz.