i think va and nj were mostly about an off year election with an unpopular democrat president.
but there are some cracks in the democrats' coalition. theyre built on the suburbs and minorities. if their advantage with either group begins to erode a bit, and the republicans continue their big advantage with white working class voters, the democrats margin to win becomes much smaller.
the democrats' advantage would be to bring trump out of the wilderness. make him the center of attention again. then they go back to look like the party of adults, and the issues that hurt them (police, crt, education) can be classified as "trump" positions again, which will tilt the suburbs back in their favor.
the democrats need trump to run in 2024. its their best hope to win (other than the economy turning around).