MichiganCardinal

Here we go.... 1st day picks sign the autographs but 2nd and 3rd day picks win championships.

The full quote Charlie Campbell got was actually pretty alarming. I wouldn't come near that with a ten-foot pole if my team doctor told me this.

I tried to make a thread for this about a month ago but the site was acting up and I eventually gave up. 1.3 - Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State: F Admittedly, I think I had this as a D before the trade, I have to fail it now. I agree that having Patricia as his HC put his career behind a proverbial eight-ball and then the Achilles injury never gave him a shot (at least here)... BUT, I also blame Quinn, as I don't think his ceiling was ever that of a Sauce Gardner type player, and that's what you need if you're taking a defensive back in the top five of an NFL draft. We saw the Cardinals this year trade out of #3 after everybody in the world knew they did not want to pick there. I simply don't believe that there was just nothing Quinn could do to trade down. A trade down followed by taking Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons, or any of the multiple really good WRs that were taken in this draft would have been much better, and is partly why Quinn is no longer an NFL General Manager. 2.35 - D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: C I might have been at a B- a month ago, but I'm not favorable of this pick either. An often injured back who just shows frustrating flashes of brilliance during his time on the field between injuries. With Jonathan Taylor still on the board too. Yuck. 3.67 - Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre Dame: C+ Not a fan of this one either, but some credit is given for him still being in the NFL, on the team that drafted him, a few years later - even if it is just as a depth piece. You should get more out of a high 3rd though if you're going to be a successful franchise. 3.75 - Jonah Jackson, OG, Ohio State: A Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Quinn didn't do much well, but he did leave some quality building blocks for an offensive line that could be top-five in the NFL this season. Jackson was a really good find for the 3rd round. 4.121 - Logan Stenburg, OG, Kentucky: C I remember when he was taken there were hopes that Jackson and Stenburg would bookend as guards for years to come. Stenburg isn't any good though and is a long shot to make the team this year. Last year we had periods where Vaitai, Kraemer, and Brown were all out at RG, and we chose to start UDFA Kayode Awosika from the Eagles practice squad as our 4th string guard over Stenberg. At the same time, this is a part of the draft where you can't really be that upset over players not working out. He's still on the team after all. 5.166 - Quintez Cephus, WR, Wisconsin: D This is a hard grade, because Cephus did give us some production as a 5th round pick before gambling his career away. At the same time, he will only be remembered as a Lion for being the idiot who got banned for gambling. Also, a quick recap of the other receivers who were taken in this draft. Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. (all available when we took Okudah), Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson (available when we took Swift), KJ Osbourne (available when we took Cephus), and Marquez Callaway (went undrafted). Way to address a need in one of the worst ways possible, Quinny boy. 5.172 - Jason Huntley, RB, New Mexico State: FFFFFFF- I don't even care how he did on the Eagles and I don't care that this was a 5th round pick. This was possibly the dumbest pick in the Quinn regime. They picked him after picking Swift, with Kerryon Johnson still on the roster, and then when they realized they had too many RBs (because who could have seen that coming), released him after training camp, hoping to pick him up for the practice squad. Except the Eagles sniped him, because of course they did, he was a 5th round pick not an UDFA, you stupid, stupid, dumb, no good idiots. And then after all that they just signed Adrian friggin' Peterson anyway. May as well have just let the clock expire on this pick. 6.197 - John Penisini, DT, Utah: B Penisini was actually a pretty useful player for a time, and he had an A+ name, so there is that. A 6th rounder still in the league at the end of his rookie deal is a decent find. 7.235 - Jashon Cornell, DT, Ohio State: C- Cornell was on an NFL field for four (4) regular season snaps, which happens to be one more than the number of full games he was suspended for due to doping (3). Overall: D Just really, really bad. In context, the 2020 NFL Draft was a pretty resounding dud after Burrow at 1.1, which - along with one useful find in Jonah Jackson - is all that saves this from being an F. Even with the lack of talent available though (except at WR), good GMs get more out of a chance like this picking 3rd than Quinn did. It cost him his job, maybe a little later than it should have. At least the timing lined things up to get a couple guys in here who seem to know what they're doing.

I think a lot of the hype on Levis pre-draft came from the Colts. Including driving the betting lines on him for #1 and #2. I think they really wanted Stroud and were hoping to get someone to move up for Levis if the Texans passed on Stroud.

I think their base will remain nickel (4-2-5), it’s what I think 30/32 teams are using, but I agree there will be times when it looks more like a 4-3, with Campbell serving as the 5th “defensive back”.

This would play to respective strengths. I didn’t like Anzalone because he can’t cover a tight end to save his life. When he has flashes, it’s in reading a developing play and blowing it up. Let him just do that and I’ll probably like him a lot more.

I’m out of reactions and it’s not even 1:45. Rookie mistakes being made all over the place today.

Second-round mocks virtually never go as expected, because draft boards are all over the place by now. But some targets: QB: None. Tanner McKee might make sense in the 3rd round, but I think we probably pick up a backup in the 3rd day like Max Duggan or Jaren Hall. I doubt Hooker is considered, but you never know. They have a lot of capital. RB: None. I expect Swift to be shipped out of town by the end of the weekend though. Depending on how the board falls out, I think Swift + a 5th for Hopkins is plausible. I don't think Arizona would necessarily love making that deal, but they need to offload him and they may like the upside with Swift. WR: Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman, and Rashee Rice... Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, and Kayshon Boutte are possibilities, but I don't see the fit as much. I think they're all Y or Z fits, which we don't really need. I prefer a big bodied red zone threat, which the former guys I mentioned are better suited for. TE: Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft ... I don't see the fit with Michael Mayer (though he could be really good) and I've heard character whispers on Darnell Washington OL: O'Cyrus Torrence, Cody Mauch, Steve Avila... Coming away with one of these three would be great. Torrence and Mauch could be plug-and-play options at RG and give us flexibility for the future of our offensive line as Jackson enters his contract year. DT: Keeanu Benton and Gervon Dexter... Benton is a Dan Campbell guy. He's not my favorite prospect but he'd contribute. I actually like Dexter a bit more but he's definitely boom-or-bust and could fall a bit. I'm curious the Lions thoughts on him, because his potential is through the room. Siaki Ika is an intriguing prospect too, but he has some medical red flags that may see him drop to the third day. I wouldn't take him in the 2nd round. If we move up from the 5th into the 4th, I might be interested in him. EDGE: I doubt they pick up anyone, just based on the room we have currently. But, if they do, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tuli Tuipuloto, Mike Morris, and Isaiah Foskey are all guys who had round one projections at one point or another. Could be really good value. LB: I doubt they address this position twice this early. That room should be set with Campbell, Anzalone, and Rodrigo. Just needs some depth. CB: Joey Porter Jr. could be a plug-and-play option at outside corner. I really want him if the Steelers don't snag him first. Quan Martin is a name to look out for as well if we don't take Porter. More of a swiss army knife defender... Kelee Ringo, Julius Brents, Tyrique Stevenson, Mekhi Garner, Cam Mitchell, Antonio Johnson, and Cam Smith are also all still out there. There are just a ton of options to pick up a really quality player here. DB: In addition to Quan Martin and Antonio Johnson (who could play both safety or slot), Brian Branch is another guy who can play single-high or slot and excel from day one. I think my top targets right now with the three picks would be Porter, Branch, Quan Martin, or Antonio Johnson for the secondary; Mingo or Tillman for a receiver; and Torrence or Mauch for a guard. Then if Gervon Dexter is there in the 4th, package Swift and a 5th to go get him. Target a later round TE and QB, and just acquire depth anywhere and everywhere with what's left.

This. I'm pretty sure that they will take a defensive back today. Maybe even two. Based on what they've said I don't think this was the case, but if your overly simplistic Madden ratings look like this: RB: 99 / 96 / 74 / 72 / 70 ... CB: 98 / 97 / 95 / 90 / 88 / 85 / 85 / 85 / 82 ... And you have the choice between the 96 RB or the 97 CB, it probably makes more sense to take the only remaining really good RB, because you can certainly get an 80-something corner later on.

I will still question the trade over picking Bijan at #6, but on reflection, I do think Gibbs/Montgomery makes more sense than Robinson/Montgomery. Gibbs and Monty compliment each other really well. Gibbs is the Swiss Army knife out of the backfield who will be a nightmare for opposing linebackers to cover. Monty is a bruising back who will run between the tackles and be a pain in opponent’s ass to bring down. Bijan is more of a Montgomery+. Given where they were drafted as well, I think Gibbs has a legitimate chance to have a better career. I think Campbell is going to be a fan favorite and may become the top selling jersey with a good rookie season.

The real question is how will Gibbs and Jamo decide who wears #1?

I think the "value" argument has a couple meanings that are worth fleshing out. 1. There is the "don't pick X at #12 because he might have been there at #18. I don't find this particularly useful. Everyone's board is different for one, but also if he's your top player, don't risk it. I think risking it is more often trying to be the smartest person in the room than simply taking the best player available on your board. If the mainstream pundits had a 3rd round grade on a prospect and you take him at #12, that's one thing. But I don't think taking X at #12 when he maybe would be there at your next pick is bad in this situation. 2. The "positional value" argument of not taking certain positions high I think this has some amount of merit, but that it goes beyond just "don't take a RB or TE or off-ball LB in the 1st round" and is overused. Mazi Smith and Calijah Kancey are two guys who came off the board yesterday at non-"luxury" positions who are likely not every-down players. I think when you are a rebuilding team, taking a player at a more luxurious position does not really help you rebuild. But, I also think that teams whose 22 starters are all top-ten at their position are those that are Super Bowl contenders. At some point, you need to have great players fill those roles too. 3. The quality of player X at position A vs. the quality of players Y and Z at position A that almost certainly be there at #34 and beyond. This is what I really think of when I think of value. If I pass on corner A at #12, what kind of corners am I looking at in the 2nd round, and what is the drop-off between A and X, Y, and/or Z? It's also where I think the value argument doesn't work to take away from Gibbs and Campbell, at least based on their evaluations. I think the drop off between Gibbs and Charbonnet is so significant as to not even make it worth taking the latter, and that they see the drop off between Campbell and the other LBs as just as much. I also think this argument is why I would have been opposed to taking Gonzalez at #12 (or Witherspoon at #6 if he had been there). I don't think the drop off between Witherspoon and Quan Martin, or Gonzalez and Porter or Branch is that significant. In overly simplistic Madden terms, I would rather take a 96 RB in the 1st and an 88 CB in the 2nd than take a 96 CB in the 1st and only have RBs in the 70s available in the 2nd, with that 88 CB available, and have to now pass on addressing the RB position, or reach for a lesser player.

I didn’t know Gibbs returned kicks. I wonder if he will take that over from Raymond.

Instant Reactions (will likely have better takes when the draft is over) The Trade: C- Gibbs: B+ Campbell: B+

The Bijan v. Jahmyr comp will be an interesting one to make one, three, and five years from now. Gibbs has a great head start, being on a really good team and running behind a top five offensive line. Bijan meanwhile got the Saquon treatment of being drafted by a team that is rebuilding. Time will tell.

Admittedly, I haven’t seen that yet.

I think Holmes is generally a master of the draft, but I think he got caught off guard when Witherspoon went at #5. Not to say he panicked and traded, just to say that I think if he could do it all over again, he might take Bijan at #6 and Campbell at #18 and be okay with not having #34. We will see though. Either of Porter or Branch could be a massive steal.

I don’t think either Gibbs or Campbell are the reaches some media makes them out to be. I think they were both top-ten targets on Holmes’ board. I do question a mediocre trade to pick Gibbs when you had Bijan there for the taking. Gibbs v. Robinson will be compared for the next five years and I really hope that doesn’t become a regret. I think Porter is painfully obvious at #34, and he could be an absolute steal. Branch if he’s not there. Either way you should have a day one starter in the secondary.

I don’t think the pick was a reach. Gibbs was a top ten talent in this draft. But in the context of the trade, I don’t really get it.

Swift should be gone by the end of the night.

WOW. I don’t hate the pick. But why not Bijan??

I wouldn’t hate this

I would have preferred them taking a UDFA prospect. But Wright wasn’t on the Lions board so I’m not sweating it really.

Meh. It’s the obvious pick. He’s no Penei.