Mr.TaterSalad

Unless they are oversampling Ds in the poll.

And again, polling has undercounted Trump's support both times he's run for office.

Polls have undercounted Trump every time he's been on the ballot. Trump won white women by +7 in 2020. And every election since Dobbs has been an off presidential election, where Trump is not on the ballot. Some of these voters are not Republicans, they are Trump fans. They aren't showing up for Tudor Dixon or Dr. Oz or Blake Master or whatever Republican it is that doesn't have the last name of Trump. Last time we had a Presidential election white women went to Trump. Many of those white women probably didn't show up in any of the midterms or special elections because they are for Trump, not your average Republican. I want to be positive and optimistic, it's just very hard when I look at this data and look at how Trump has overperformed polling in both elections he's been apart of.

There are many white women who love Trump. Trump performed well with white women in the past. He won white women by 7 points in 2020 over Biden. There are many white women who may be pro choice, care about abortion, but are still voting for Trump.

From his thread he's saying most of the remaining swing state voters are modeled for Republicans. So then, what can we say about the ~16m likely swing-state voters who haven't voted yet? Most of them are Republicans: Partisan comp: AZ: 41% are Rs, 29% D GA: 35%R 41%D MI: 42%R 44%D NC: 33%R 29%D PA: 50%R 39%D WI: 50%R 28%D And roughly ~60% of them will probably vote on E-Day

Morris is suggesting though that by raw vote numbers, leaving the polls aside, that more Rs have earlier voted AND there is still much more R vote outstanding. If that's true, how do Ds possibly overcome this? Even if non-party affiliates and independent swing voters break there way, Rs already have a lead and still have a cushion because of their voters who still haven't voted yet according to the early voting data provided.

Very little of this early voting data looks good for Dems. This EV data from Elliott Morris seems to suggest Republicans will have a comfortable margin of victory.

Did non-Republican/MAGA aligned polls really predict a red wave though in 2022? I don't think they did. Many of the polls in fact, like Morning Consult and Big Village, had Democrats in the lead on the generic congressional ballot. There were media outlets that were calling for a red wave, but mainstream polling didn't exactly indicate one.

All of our Arab-American, Palestinian-American, and Muslim-American friends need to see this ****. I've been critical on how the Biden-Harris administration has handled the war in Gaza, but this is proof that it can and likely will get worse for Palestinians in Gaza.

He was sorta, kinda, albeit in a more coherent fashion, making this type of case at the end of the 2016 election when he thought he could lose. In spite of that attitude, he still got the win. Many Americans won't see just how unhinged he's gotten now and they won't see the MSG debacle. They'll remember positive things about the economy or get scared on immigration and vote for him anyways.

Everything about that MSG rally was an unmitigated disaster. All the viral clips are not working in their favor. I'm all for comedians being protected with free speech and being able to tell jokes without censorship. However, when nearly every joke was racist, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, or antisemitic, you might want to reconsider your career in comedy if that's all you got. And to let that guy go on stage and tell those jokes is incredible. Whatever staffer cleared that is a total moron.

Democrats need to tone down the rhetoric don't ya know.

So the Trump campaign and their prominent surrogates closing messages are that America is a trash can, Puerto Rico is full of garbage people, the Congo is sending criminals here to attack our way of life, the election might or might not be stolen depending on who wins, Kamala is for they/them trans people, and she's also a c***. I don't know what to say other that please go out and vote. Please get everyone you know to go out and vote.

Elon Musk is repugnant. I can't believe this is his PACs closing message to voters. Disgusting ****.

I think her big issue when speaking is a lack of authenticity. She sounds too poll tested and scripted at times. It's good to be on message and have message discipline, but speak like a regular person speaks, don't sound like you're a talking point machine. Harris, and any politician, sounds best when they are just allowed to go out there and be themselves and speak freely. You can do that while staying on message. Trump's problem is he'll do that but get wildly off message and ramble off a bunch of nonsense.

Let Ben Johnson cook!!!!!

Hellooooooo Heisman!!!!

Gibbs baby, what a run! Good block by Glasgow.

No need to panic. No need to acquire an edge rusher or pass rusher. Everything is fine per Brad.

Looks like Zeke is making his debut on defense today according to the Fox broadcast.

War criminals deserve to be demonized and Bush is a war criminal.

Now Rodriguez is carted off the field. This defense is falling one by one. Holmes has to go out and make a move.

I disagree about Bush. The Iraq War was one of his most obvious concerns, but there are others beyond that too. Bush's administration was a huge proponent for many anti-democratic measures. They pushed The Patriot Act and warrantless wire tapping. As well, Bush didn't believe in the normal checks and balances of the three branches of government with his support for Unitary Executive Theory. Bush was a threat to democracy himself.

I looked away at the start of the play. My fault, I missed that.

Well it's not being coached up.